125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.73 (banked floor $33.65) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $38,571/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,348/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-122,312 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 7d | 90 × $24.50 | 74% | $19,286 | $-12,605 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $28 | 7 Aug | 7d | 26.8% | 90%hist 100% | 20%hist 5% | +3pp | $1,500 | $6,429 | -$12,857 | $70,125 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $28 26.8% OTM over spot $22.09 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $0.42 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,429/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $28.43) 92% EV / mo $-1,206 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,683/mo median; plan ~$2,505/mo after 68% keep · $16,584 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-2.9], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$22,585 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $30 @ 72% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.72/sh now → $1.93 mid-life (likely $1.66–$2.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 366 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $29 (overshoots $1.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $6 below CC-SS $33.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $28.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.73 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-122,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,455 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $28): -$70,125 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-72,982 (+$49,331 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,732 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-70,250, the opportunity cost of earning $6,429/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.69 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-85,367 (+$36,945 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 110 × $26 | 7 Aug | 7d | 17.7% | 83%hist 99% | 36%hist 18% | +5pp | $2,970 | $12,729 | -$6,557 | $82,060 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 110 × $26 17.7% OTM over spot $22.09 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $0.61 mid) = $2,970 credit for the 7d cycle → $12,729/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $26.61) 86% EV / mo $-2,307 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,601/mo median; plan ~$3,809/mo after 68% keep · $27,513 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.0], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$16,090 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $28 @ 73% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 110 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.45/sh now → $1.73 mid-life (likely $1.68–$2.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 747 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $27 (overshoots $1.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $8 below CC-SS $33.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $26.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.73 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-122,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,455 − CC assignment net of premium (110 × $26): -$82,060 + Conservative CC premium (15 × $34): +$15 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-84,902 (+$37,411 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,732 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-82,170, the opportunity cost of earning $12,729/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.69 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-85,352 (+$36,960 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 90 × $24.50 | 7 Aug | 7d | 10.9% | 74%hist 96% | 55%hist 43% | +6pp | $4,500 | $19,286 | — | $78,570 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 90 × $24.50 10.9% OTM over spot $22.09 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $0.81 mid) = $4,500 credit for the 7d cycle → $19,286/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24.50) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $25.30) 79% EV / mo $-2,644 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,437/mo median; plan ~$5,057/mo after 68% keep · $30,484 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.0], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,836 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $27 @ 76% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 90 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.25/sh now → $1.59 mid-life (likely $1.78–$2.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,216 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $26 (overshoots $1.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24.50 is $9 below CC-SS $33.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $25.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.73 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-122,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,455 − CC assignment net of premium (90 × $24.50): -$78,570 + Conservative CC premium (35 × $34): +$35 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-81,392 (+$40,920 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,732 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-78,660, the opportunity cost of earning $19,286/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.69 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,210, position total $-91,542 (+$30,770 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 122 × $23.50 | 7 Aug | 7d | 6.4% | 67%hist 80% | 71%hist 59% | +10pp | $9,028 | $38,691 | +$19,406 | $115,778 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 122 × $23.50 6.4% OTM over spot $22.09 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $1.15 mid) = $9,028 credit for the 7d cycle → $38,691/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23.50) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $24.64) 75% EV / mo $-4,353 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $12,386/mo median; plan ~$8,423/mo after 68% keep · $55,804 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.7-3.9], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,301 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $28 @ 82% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 122 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.12/sh now → $1.50 mid-life (likely $1.91–$2.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.74/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,659 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $24 (overshoots $0.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $23.50 is $10 below CC-SS $33.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.74 collected) or spot ≥ $24.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.73 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-122,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,455 − CC assignment net of premium (122 × $23.50): -$115,778 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $34): +$3 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-118,632 (+$3,681 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,732 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-115,900, the opportunity cost of earning $38,691/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.69 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,690, position total $-103,054 (+$19,258 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.821 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$119,455 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,732
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24.50 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.50 | 90/125 | $19,286 | $19,361 | 74% | 79% | $-2,644 | -$78,570 | 284.4% | $-81,392 (vs do-nothing $-78,660) |
| $24.50 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | 106/125 | $19,307 | $19,348 | 72% | 78% | +$310 | -$88,828 | 321.5% | $-91,666 (vs do-nothing $-88,934) |
| $24 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.61 | 74/125 | $19,346 | $19,455 | 71% | 76% | $-2,390 | -$67,488 | 244.3% | $-70,294 (vs do-nothing $-67,562) |
| $24 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.93 | 97/125 | $19,331 | $19,391 | 68% | 75% | $-835 | -$85,360 | 309.0% | $-88,189 (vs do-nothing $-85,457) |
| $24 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.19 | 114/125 | $19,380 | $19,404 | 67% | 76% | +$200 | -$97,356 | 352.4% | $-100,202 (vs do-nothing $-97,470) |
| $23.50 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.74 | 61/125 | $19,346 | $19,483 | 67% | 75% | $-2,177 | -$57,889 | 209.6% | $-60,682 (vs do-nothing $-57,950) |
| $23.50 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.01 | 90/125 | $19,479 | $19,554 | 65% | 75% | $-2,173 | -$82,980 | 300.4% | $-85,802 (vs do-nothing $-83,070) |
| $23.50 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.26 | 108/125 | $19,440 | $19,476 | 64% | 74% | $-1,278 | -$96,876 | 350.7% | $-99,716 (vs do-nothing $-96,984) |
| $23 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.91 | 50/125 | $19,500 | $19,661 | 62% | 72% | $-1,606 | -$49,100 | 177.7% | $-51,882 (vs do-nothing $-49,150) |
| $23 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.30 | 70/125 | $19,500 | $19,618 | 61% | 73% | +$66 | -$66,010 | 239.0% | $-68,812 (vs do-nothing $-66,080) |
| $23 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.53 | 89/125 | $19,453 | $19,530 | 61% | 73% | +$36 | -$81,880 | 296.4% | $-84,701 (vs do-nothing $-81,969) |
| $23 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.76 | 103/125 | $19,423 | $19,470 | 61% | 73% | +$444 | -$92,391 | 334.4% | $-95,226 (vs do-nothing $-92,494) |
| $22.50 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.72 | 79/125 | $19,411 | $19,510 | 58% | 70% | $-1,662 | -$75,129 | 272.0% | $-77,940 (vs do-nothing $-75,208) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $22.50 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.35 | 67/125 | $19,382 | $19,506 | 58% | 71% | $-2,023 | -$66,196 | 239.6% | $-68,995 (vs do-nothing $-66,263) |
| $22.50 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.10 | 41/125 | $19,329 | $19,509 | 58% | 72% | $-1,285 | -$41,533 | 150.3% | $-44,306 (vs do-nothing $-41,574) |
| $22 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.12 | 85/125 | $19,307 | $19,393 | 55% | 70% | $-250 | -$81,685 | 295.7% | $-84,502 (vs do-nothing $-81,770) |
| $22 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.96 | 69/125 | $19,320 | $19,440 | 55% | 68% | $-1,262 | -$67,413 | 244.0% | $-70,214 (vs do-nothing $-67,482) |
| $22 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.53 | 59/125 | $19,344 | $19,485 | 54% | 69% | $-2,279 | -$60,180 | 217.8% | $-62,971 (vs do-nothing $-60,239) |
| $22 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.22 | 37/125 | $19,346 | $19,534 | 53% | 68% | $-2,698 | -$38,887 | 140.8% | $-41,656 (vs do-nothing $-38,924) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.