125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $34.04 (banked floor $33.96) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $31,544/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,626/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-123,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 3d | 93 × $25.50 | 89% | $15,810 | $-11,077 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 14 Aug 2026 · 10d | 115 × $25.50 | 77% | $15,870 | $-16,895 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 105 × $27 | 7 Aug | 3d | 20.9% | 96%hist 99% | 8%hist 1% | +7pp | $1,050 | $10,500 | -$5,310 | $72,838 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 105 × $27 20.9% OTM over spot $22.34 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.25 mid) = $1,050 credit for the 3d cycle → $10,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $27.25) 97% EV / mo +$8,305 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,247/mo median; plan ~$4,928/mo after 68% keep · $34,481 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [1.0-3.7], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$16,104 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $27 @ 70% POP 55% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 105 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.31/sh now → $1.63 mid-life (likely $1.60–$3.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 429 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $28 (overshoots $1.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $7 below CC-SS $34.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $27.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$120,238 − CC assignment net of premium (105 × $27): -$72,838 + Conservative CC premium (20 × $40): +$60 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-75,790 (+$47,460 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,637 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-73,153, the opportunity cost of earning $10,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$80,745, position total $-75,960 (+$47,290 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $26 | 7 Aug | 3d | 16.4% | 92%hist 99% | 16%hist 6% | +7pp | $1,375 | $13,750 | -$2,060 | $99,087 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $26 16.4% OTM over spot $22.34 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.34 mid) = $1,375 credit for the 3d cycle → $13,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $26.34) 94% EV / mo +$6,861 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,730/mo median; plan ~$5,937/mo after 68% keep · $36,463 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.7-3.4], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$18,057 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $26 @ 70% POP 55% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.20/sh now → $1.55 mid-life (likely $1.57–$2.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 567 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $27 (overshoots $1.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $8 below CC-SS $34.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $26.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$120,238 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $26): -$99,087 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-102,099 (+$21,151 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,637 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-99,462, the opportunity cost of earning $13,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$108,500, position total $-103,775 (+$19,475 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 93 × $25.50 | 7 Aug | 3d | 14.2% | 89%hist 95% | 22%hist 18% | +8pp | $1,581 | $15,810 | — | $77,813 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 93 × $25.50 14.2% OTM over spot $22.34 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.44 mid) = $1,581 credit for the 3d cycle → $15,810/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $25.94) 92% EV / mo +$7,766 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,103/mo median; plan ~$6,190/mo after 68% keep · $44,024 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.5], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,514 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $27 @ 71% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 93 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.14/sh now → $1.52 mid-life (likely $1.56–$2.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 729 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $27 (overshoots $1.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $9 below CC-SS $34.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $25.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$120,238 − CC assignment net of premium (93 × $25.50): -$77,813 + Conservative CC premium (32 × $40): +$96 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-80,729 (+$42,521 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,637 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-78,092, the opportunity cost of earning $15,810/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$84,816, position total $-79,995 (+$43,255 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 58 × $24.50 | 7 Aug | 3d | 9.7% | 81%hist 95% | 39%hist 22% | +12pp | $3,190 | $31,900 | +$16,090 | $52,124 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 58 × $24.50 9.7% OTM over spot $22.34 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.72 mid) = $3,190 credit for the 3d cycle → $31,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $25.21) 87% EV / mo +$20,390 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $15,356/mo median; plan ~$10,442/mo after 68% keep · $62,196 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.5], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,154 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $28 @ 78% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 58 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.03/sh now → $1.44 mid-life (likely $1.70–$2.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,020 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $26 (overshoots $1.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24.50 is $10 below CC-SS $34.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $25.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$120,238 − CC assignment net of premium (58 × $24.50): -$52,124 + Conservative CC premium (67 × $40): +$201 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-54,936 (+$68,314 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,637 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-52,298, the opportunity cost of earning $31,900/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$56,492, position total $-51,566 (+$71,684 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $28.50 | 14 Aug | 10d | 27.6% | 90%hist 99% | 21%hist 18% | +1pp | $1,375 | $4,125 | -$11,745 | $67,837 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $28.50 27.6% OTM over spot $22.34 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.58 mid) = $1,375 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,125/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $29.07) 92% EV / mo $-1,985 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,329/mo median; plan ~$1,584/mo after 68% keep · $11,957 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-4.1], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$28,044 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $28 @ 64% POP 55% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.32/sh now → $2.35 mid-life (likely $2.12–$3.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 484 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $30 (overshoots $1.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28.50 is $6 below CC-SS $34.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $29.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$120,238 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $28.50): -$67,837 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-70,849 (+$52,401 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,637 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-68,212, the opportunity cost of earning $4,125/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$77,250, position total $-72,525 (+$50,725 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 116 × $26.50 | 14 Aug | 10d | 18.6% | 83%hist 95% | 37%hist 22% | +2pp | $3,480 | $10,440 | -$5,430 | $83,949 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 116 × $26.50 18.6% OTM over spot $22.34 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.60 mid) = $3,480 credit for the 10d cycle → $10,440/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $27.10) 85% EV / mo $-2,109 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,123/mo median; plan ~$3,483/mo after 68% keep · $22,403 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-2.9], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$21,082 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $26 @ 65% POP 53% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 116 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.99/sh now → $2.12 mid-life (likely $2.14–$3.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 875 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $28 (overshoots $1.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $8 below CC-SS $34.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $27.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$120,238 − CC assignment net of premium (116 × $26.50): -$83,949 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $40): +$27 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-86,934 (+$36,316 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,637 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-84,297, the opportunity cost of earning $10,440/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$92,684, position total $-87,932 (+$35,318 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 115 × $25.50 | 14 Aug | 10d | 14.2% | 77%hist 92% | 48%hist 32% | +6pp | $5,290 | $15,870 | — | $92,885 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 115 × $25.50 14.2% OTM over spot $22.34 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.78 mid) = $5,290 credit for the 10d cycle → $15,870/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $26.27) 82% EV / mo $-2,436 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,726/mo median; plan ~$4,574/mo after 68% keep · $33,299 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.5], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$17,749 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $26 @ 68% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 115 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.83/sh now → $2.00 mid-life (likely $2.17–$3.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,158 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $26 (overshoots $0.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $9 below CC-SS $34.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.46 collected) or spot ≥ $26.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$120,238 − CC assignment net of premium (115 × $25.50): -$92,885 + Conservative CC premium (10 × $40): +$30 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-95,867 (+$27,383 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,637 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-93,230, the opportunity cost of earning $15,870/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$101,545, position total $-96,790 (+$26,460 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 112 × $23.50 | 14 Aug | 10d | 5.2% | 64%hist 78% | 78%hist 59% | +7pp | $10,528 | $31,584 | +$15,714 | $107,486 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 112 × $23.50 5.2% OTM over spot $22.34 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.31 mid) = $10,528 credit for the 10d cycle → $31,584/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $24.82) 73% EV / mo $-4,554 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,774/mo median; plan ~$6,646/mo after 68% keep · $44,252 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [1.0-3.7], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,446 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $26 @ 76% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 112 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.52/sh now → $1.78 mid-life (likely $2.34–$3.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,921 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $24 (overshoots $0.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $23.50 is $11 below CC-SS $34.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.94 collected) or spot ≥ $24.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-123,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$120,238 − CC assignment net of premium (112 × $23.50): -$107,486 + Conservative CC premium (13 × $40): +$39 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-110,459 (+$12,791 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,637 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-107,822, the opportunity cost of earning $31,584/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.79 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$115,920, position total $-111,156 (+$12,094 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 28 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.822 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$120,238 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,637
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.17 | 93/125 | $15,810 | $15,979 | 89% | 92% | +$7,766 | -$77,813 | 281.7% | $-80,729 (vs do-nothing $-78,092) |
| $25 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.24 | 66/125 | $15,840 | $16,152 | 85% | 89% | +$7,088 | -$58,060 | 210.2% | $-60,895 (vs do-nothing $-58,258) |
| $24.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.55 | 29/125 | $15,950 | $16,458 | 81% | 87% | +$10,195 | -$26,062 | 94.3% | $-28,787 (vs do-nothing $-26,149) |
| $25.50 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.46 | 115/125 | $15,870 | $15,923 | 77% | 82% | $-2,436 | -$92,885 | 336.2% | $-95,867 (vs do-nothing $-93,230) |
| $24 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.44 | 36/125 | $15,840 | $16,311 | 76% | 83% | +$5,409 | -$34,549 | 125.1% | $-37,294 (vs do-nothing $-34,657) |
| $25 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.56 | 94/125 | $15,792 | $15,956 | 74% | 80% | $-2,214 | -$79,683 | 288.4% | $-82,603 (vs do-nothing $-79,965) |
| $25.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.00 | 90/125 | $15,882 | $16,068 | 74% | 79% | +$934 | -$67,833 | 245.5% | $-70,740 (vs do-nothing $-68,103) |
| $25 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.83 | 108/125 | $15,819 | $15,909 | 71% | 76% | $-4,570 | -$88,635 | 320.9% | $-91,597 (vs do-nothing $-88,959) |
| $24.50 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.69 | 77/125 | $15,939 | $16,193 | 71% | 79% | $-1,712 | -$68,122 | 246.6% | $-70,990 (vs do-nothing $-68,353) |
| $25 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.04 | 122/125 | $15,860 | $15,876 | 71% | 78% | $-523 | -$97,563 | 353.2% | $-100,566 (vs do-nothing $-97,929) |
| $24.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.96 | 94/125 | $15,925 | $16,089 | 68% | 75% | $-4,195 | -$80,623 | 291.8% | $-83,543 (vs do-nothing $-80,905) |
| $24 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.62 | 85/125 | $15,810 | $16,022 | 67% | 77% | $-7,374 | -$80,044 | 289.8% | $-82,937 (vs do-nothing $-80,299) |
| $24 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.92 | 98/125 | $15,911 | $16,054 | 66% | 74% | $-3,934 | -$89,346 | 323.4% | $-92,278 (vs do-nothing $-89,640) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.13 | 112/125 | $15,820 | $15,889 | 66% | 74% | $-3,560 | -$99,758 | 361.1% | $-102,731 (vs do-nothing $-100,094) |
| $23.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.70 | 23/125 | $16,100 | $16,640 | 65% | 74% | $-1,018 | -$22,625 | 81.9% | $-25,331 (vs do-nothing $-22,694) |
| $23.50 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.94 | 56/125 | $15,792 | $16,157 | 64% | 73% | $-2,277 | -$53,743 | 194.5% | $-56,548 (vs do-nothing $-53,911) |
| $23.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.07 | 84/125 | $15,861 | $16,078 | 63% | 73% | $-3,747 | -$79,522 | 287.9% | $-82,412 (vs do-nothing $-79,774) |
| $23 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.51 | 31/125 | $15,810 | $16,308 | 60% | 70% | $-13,060 | -$32,634 | 118.1% | $-35,364 (vs do-nothing $-32,727) |
| $23 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.06 | 50/125 | $15,900 | $16,297 | 60% | 71% | $-3,071 | -$49,885 | 180.6% | $-52,672 (vs do-nothing $-50,035) |
| $23 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.55 | 82/125 | $15,888 | $16,115 | 60% | 71% | $-2,231 | -$77,793 | 281.6% | $-80,676 (vs do-nothing $-78,039) |
| $23 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.60 | 56/125 | $15,812 | $16,177 | 60% | 71% | $-1,383 | -$52,847 | 191.3% | $-55,652 (vs do-nothing $-53,015) |
| $22.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.43 | 63/125 | $15,898 | $16,226 | 56% | 68% | $-5,797 | -$63,674 | 230.5% | $-66,500 (vs do-nothing $-63,863) |
| $22.50 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.80 | 30/125 | $16,200 | $16,703 | 56% | 71% | +$2,895 | -$29,211 | 105.7% | $-31,938 (vs do-nothing $-29,301) |
| $22.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.68 | 24/125 | $16,320 | $16,855 | 55% | 67% | $-11,261 | -$26,057 | 94.3% | $-28,766 (vs do-nothing $-26,129) |
| $22 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.86 | 68/125 | $15,810 | $16,112 | 53% | 68% | $-3,157 | -$69,203 | 250.5% | $-72,045 (vs do-nothing $-69,407) |
| $22 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.70 | 53/125 | $15,900 | $16,281 | 53% | 67% | $-4,509 | -$54,786 | 198.3% | $-57,582 (vs do-nothing $-54,945) |
| $22 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.26 | 42/125 | $15,876 | $16,315 | 51% | 66% | $-5,763 | -$45,263 | 163.8% | $-48,027 (vs do-nothing $-45,389) |
| $22 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.94 | 17/125 | $15,980 | $16,552 | 50% | 65% | $-7,798 | -$18,865 | 68.3% | $-21,553 (vs do-nothing $-18,916) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.