125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.14 (banked floor $33.06) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $28,125/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $5,197/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-142,625 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY | 7 Aug 2026 · 2d | 86 × $21 | 88% | $14,190 | $-16,274 |
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 14 Aug 2026 · 9d | 90 × $21.50 | 78% | $14,100 | $-16,003 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 124 × $23 | 7 Aug | 2d | 18.9% | 99%hist 99% | 2%hist 1% | +2pp | $620 | $9,300 | -$4,890 | $125,103 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 124 × $23 18.9% OTM over spot $19.34 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $620 credit for the 2d cycle → $9,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $23.10) 99% EV / mo +$9,112 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 34% whole by 9mo vs 32% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,481/mo median; plan ~$1,007/mo after 68% keep · $9,634 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.6-4.6], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$23,618 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $23 @ 66% POP 53% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 124 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.76/sh now → $1.95 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $23 is $10 below CC-SS $33.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $23.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $23)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-142,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$136,905 − CC assignment net of premium (124 × $23): -$125,103 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $32.50): -$63 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-130,886 (+$11,739 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-117,304, the opportunity cost of earning $9,300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.57 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,248, position total $-112,089 (+$30,536 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $23 | 7 Aug | 2d | 18.9% | 99%hist 99% | 2%hist 1% | +3pp | $625 | $9,375 | -$4,815 | $126,111 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $23 18.9% OTM over spot $19.34 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $625 credit for the 2d cycle → $9,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $23.10) 99% EV / mo +$9,186 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 40% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,581/mo median; plan ~$1,075/mo after 68% keep · $9,900 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [1.8-5.6], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$23,809 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $23 @ 66% POP 53% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.76/sh now → $1.95 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $23 is $10 below CC-SS $33.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $23.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $23)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-142,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$136,905 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $23): -$126,111 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-131,832 (+$10,793 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-118,250, the opportunity cost of earning $9,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.57 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,500, position total $-112,342 (+$30,283 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 86 × $21 | 7 Aug | 2d | 8.6% | 88%hist 95% | 25%hist 18% | +12pp | $946 | $14,190 | — | $103,449 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 86 × $21 8.6% OTM over spot $19.34 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.28 mid) = $946 credit for the 2d cycle → $14,190/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $21) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $21.27) 91% EV / mo +$7,255 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,930/mo median; plan ~$6,072/mo after 68% keep · $54,735 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [2.0-5.5], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$13,667 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $21 @ 66% POP 52% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 86 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.40/sh now → $1.70 mid-life (likely $1.90–$3.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 424 simulated challenges: the $21 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $22 (overshoots $0.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $21 is $12 below CC-SS $33.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $21.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $21)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-142,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$136,905 − CC assignment net of premium (86 × $21): -$103,449 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (39 × $32.50): -$2,453 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-111,622 (+$31,003 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-98,040, the opportunity cost of earning $14,190/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.57 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$38,356, position total $-119,159 (+$23,466 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 75 × $20.50 | 7 Aug | 2d | 6.0% | 80%hist 92% | 41%hist 32% | +15pp | $1,875 | $28,125 | +$13,935 | $92,917 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 75 × $20.50 6.0% OTM over spot $19.34 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.40 mid) = $1,875 credit for the 2d cycle → $28,125/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $20.89) 86% EV / mo +$15,107 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,395/mo median; plan ~$9,108/mo after 68% keep · $81,876 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.8-5.3], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,409 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $21 @ 70% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 75 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.32/sh now → $1.64 mid-life (likely $1.90–$3.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 720 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $21 (overshoots $0.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $20.50 is $13 below CC-SS $33.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $20.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-142,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$136,905 − CC assignment net of premium (75 × $20.50): -$92,917 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (50 × $32.50): -$3,145 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-101,782 (+$40,843 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-88,200, the opportunity cost of earning $28,125/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.57 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$36,150, position total $-116,942 (+$25,683 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $27 | 14 Aug | 9d | 39.6% | 99%hist 99% | 3%hist 1% | +1pp | $625 | $2,083 | -$12,017 | $76,111 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $27 39.6% OTM over spot $19.34 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.23 mid) = $625 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,083/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $27.23) 99% EV / mo +$1,861 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,372/mo median; plan ~$933/mo after 68% keep · $8,835 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [1.8-5.2], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$39,726 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $27 @ 66% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.56/sh now → $3.23 mid-life (likely $2.04–$3.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 55 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 9, at $28 (overshoots $0.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $6 below CC-SS $33.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $27.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-142,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$136,905 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $27): -$76,111 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-81,832 (+$60,793 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-68,250, the opportunity cost of earning $2,083/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.57 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-80,842 (+$61,783 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 122 × $22.50 | 14 Aug | 9d | 16.3% | 85%hist 95% | 30%hist 22% | +7pp | $2,806 | $9,353 | -$4,747 | $126,989 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 122 × $22.50 16.3% OTM over spot $19.34 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.55 mid) = $2,806 credit for the 9d cycle → $9,353/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $23.05) 89% EV / mo +$2,446 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 40% whole by 9mo vs 34% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,869/mo median; plan ~$3,311/mo after 68% keep · $35,601 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [2.2-5.5], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$26,787 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $22 @ 66% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 122 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.43/sh now → $2.43 mid-life (likely $2.36–$3.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 709 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $23 (overshoots $0.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $22.50 is $11 below CC-SS $33.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $23.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-142,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$136,905 − CC assignment net of premium (122 × $22.50): -$126,989 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $32.50): -$189 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-132,898 (+$9,727 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-119,316, the opportunity cost of earning $9,353/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.57 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$34,648, position total $-115,487 (+$27,138 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 90 × $21.50 | 14 Aug | 9d | 11.1% | 78%hist 92% | 47%hist 32% | +7pp | $4,230 | $14,100 | — | $100,520 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 90 × $21.50 11.1% OTM over spot $19.34 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.52 mid) = $4,230 credit for the 9d cycle → $14,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $21.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $22.02) 82% EV / mo +$4,522 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 35% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,163/mo median; plan ~$4,191/mo after 68% keep · $43,503 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [2.0-5.1], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$16,125 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $22 @ 66% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 90 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.20/sh now → $2.26 mid-life (likely $2.44–$3.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,102 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $22 (overshoots $0.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $21.50 is $12 below CC-SS $33.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $22.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-142,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$136,905 − CC assignment net of premium (90 × $21.50): -$100,520 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (35 × $32.50): -$2,201 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-108,442 (+$34,183 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-94,860, the opportunity cost of earning $14,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.57 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,400, position total $-113,207 (+$29,418 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 121 × $20 | 14 Aug | 9d | 3.4% | 62%hist 78% | 82%hist 81% | +12pp | $8,470 | $28,233 | +$14,133 | $150,511 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 121 × $20 3.4% OTM over spot $19.34 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.49 mid) = $8,470 credit for the 9d cycle → $28,233/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $21.49) 78% EV / mo $-1,431 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 35% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,362/mo median; plan ~$5,686/mo after 68% keep · $57,154 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [1.9-5.4], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$16,039 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $20 @ 65% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 121 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.86/sh now → $2.03 mid-life (likely $2.71–$3.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,999 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $21 (overshoots $0.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $20 is $13 below CC-SS $33.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.70 collected) or spot ≥ $21.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-142,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$136,905 − CC assignment net of premium (121 × $20): -$150,511 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $32.50): -$252 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-156,483 ($-13,858 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-142,901, the opportunity cost of earning $28,233/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.57 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$58,927, position total $-139,765 (+$2,860 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.794 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$136,905 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-13,582
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $21 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.11 | 86/125 | $14,190 | $14,263 | 88% | 91% | +$7,255 | -$103,449 | 374.5% | $-111,622 (vs do-nothing $-98,040) |
| $20.50 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.25 | 38/125 | $14,250 | $14,413 | 80% | 86% | +$7,654 | -$47,078 | 170.4% | $-58,270 (vs do-nothing $-44,688) |
| $21.50 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.47 | 90/125 | $14,100 | $14,166 | 78% | 82% | +$4,522 | -$100,520 | 363.9% | $-108,442 (vs do-nothing $-94,860) |
| $21 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.43 | 99/125 | $14,190 | $14,239 | 73% | 81% | +$60 | -$115,918 | 419.6% | $-123,274 (vs do-nothing $-109,692) |
| $21 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.66 | 114/125 | $14,108 | $14,128 | 69% | 78% | $-1,527 | -$130,860 | 473.7% | $-137,272 (vs do-nothing $-123,690) |
| $20 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.31 | 31/125 | $14,415 | $14,591 | 69% | 79% | +$3,862 | -$39,770 | 144.0% | $-51,402 (vs do-nothing $-37,820) |
| $21 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.94 | 115/125 | $14,100 | $14,119 | 68% | 78% | $-919 | -$128,787 | 466.2% | $-135,137 (vs do-nothing $-121,555) |
| $20.50 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.63 | 67/125 | $14,070 | $14,179 | 67% | 79% | +$1,439 | -$80,460 | 291.3% | $-89,828 (vs do-nothing $-76,246) |
| $20.50 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 94/125 | $14,100 | $14,158 | 65% | 76% | $-1,550 | -$111,286 | 402.8% | $-118,956 (vs do-nothing $-105,374) |
| $20 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.70 | 61/125 | $14,233 | $14,353 | 62% | 78% | $-721 | -$75,877 | 274.7% | $-85,623 (vs do-nothing $-72,041) |
| $20 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 72/125 | $14,175 | $14,274 | 60% | 74% | $-268 | -$87,040 | 315.1% | $-96,094 (vs do-nothing $-82,512) |
| $20 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.32 | 82/125 | $14,118 | $14,199 | 60% | 72% | +$85 | -$96,915 | 350.8% | $-105,340 (vs do-nothing $-91,758) |
| $19.50 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.48 | 20/125 | $14,400 | $14,597 | 56% | 83% | +$2,215 | -$26,318 | 95.3% | $-38,642 (vs do-nothing $-25,060) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $19.50 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.20 | 63/125 | $14,175 | $14,291 | 56% | 72% | $-944 | -$78,365 | 283.7% | $-87,985 (vs do-nothing $-74,403) |
| $19.50 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | 55/125 | $14,300 | $14,431 | 55% | 75% | $-2,959 | -$70,724 | 256.0% | $-80,847 (vs do-nothing $-67,265) |
| $19 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.67 | 65/125 | $14,159 | $14,271 | 52% | 72% | $-407 | -$81,048 | 293.4% | $-90,542 (vs do-nothing $-76,960) |
| $19 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.49 | 51/125 | $14,248 | $14,387 | 51% | 71% | $-306 | -$64,509 | 233.5% | $-74,884 (vs do-nothing $-61,302) |
| $19 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.07 | 40/125 | $14,267 | $14,426 | 48% | 70% | $-1,544 | -$52,276 | 189.2% | $-63,342 (vs do-nothing $-49,760) |
| $19 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.63 | 15/125 | $14,175 | $14,381 | 42% | 76% | $-807 | -$20,263 | 73.4% | $-32,902 (vs do-nothing $-19,320) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.