125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $33.50 (banked floor $33.42) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $29,250/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $5,066/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-152,312 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 14 Aug 2026 · 8d | 100 × $20.50 | 75% | $14,625 | $-6,647 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 125 × $24 | 21 Aug | 15d | 28.1% | 91%hist 99% | 20%hist 6% | +3pp | $1,625 | $3,250 | -$11,375 | $117,121 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $24 28.1% OTM over spot $18.73 21 Aug 2026 (15d, $0.30 mid) = $1,625 credit for the 15d cycle → $3,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $24.30) 92% EV / mo +$164 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 36% whole by 9mo vs 33% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,923/mo median; plan ~$1,308/mo after 68% keep · $14,185 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [2.2-5.3], measured ONLY among the 36% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$24,293 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $24 @ 66% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.93/sh now → $2.07 mid-life (likely $1.77–$2.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 453 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 15, at $25 (overshoots $0.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24 is $9 below CC-SS $33.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $24.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-152,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$144,928 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $24): -$117,121 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-124,506 (+$27,806 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19,756 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-104,750, the opportunity cost of earning $3,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.54 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,625, position total $-103,114 (+$49,198 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 66 × $20.50 | 14 Aug | 8d | 9.5% | 75%hist 92% | 52%hist 43% | +2pp | $2,574 | $9,652 | -$4,972 | $83,224 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 66 × $20.50 9.5% OTM over spot $18.73 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.60 mid) = $2,574 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,652/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $21.11) 81% EV / mo +$1,167 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 35% whole by 9mo vs 33% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,058/mo median; plan ~$2,760/mo after 68% keep · $29,615 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.6-4.4], measured ONLY among the 35% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,173 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $22 @ 72% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 66 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.87/sh now → $1.33 mid-life (likely $1.45–$2.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,238 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $21 (overshoots $0.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $20.50 is $13 below CC-SS $33.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $21.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-152,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$144,928 − CC assignment net of premium (66 × $20.50): -$83,224 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (59 × $32.50): -$5,839 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-96,448 (+$55,864 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19,756 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-76,692, the opportunity cost of earning $9,652/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.54 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$30,690, position total $-116,120 (+$36,192 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 100 × $20.50 | 14 Aug | 8d | 9.5% | 75%hist 92% | 52%hist 43% | +8pp | $3,900 | $14,625 | — | $126,097 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 100 × $20.50 9.5% OTM over spot $18.73 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.60 mid) = $3,900 credit for the 8d cycle → $14,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $21.11) 81% EV / mo +$1,769 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 39% whole by 9mo vs 31% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,997/mo median; plan ~$4,078/mo after 68% keep · $43,280 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.8-5.2], measured ONLY among the 39% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,353 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $22 @ 72% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.87/sh now → $1.33 mid-life (likely $1.48–$2.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,117 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $21 (overshoots $0.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $20.50 is $13 below CC-SS $33.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $21.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-152,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$144,928 − CC assignment net of premium (100 × $20.50): -$126,097 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (25 × $32.50): -$2,474 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-135,956 (+$16,356 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19,756 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-116,200, the opportunity cost of earning $14,625/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.54 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$46,500, position total $-131,964 (+$20,348 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 103 × $19 | 14 Aug | 8d | 1.4% | 57%hist 77% | 92%hist 89% | +7pp | $7,828 | $29,355 | +$14,730 | $141,519 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 103 × $19 1.4% OTM over spot $18.73 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.13 mid) = $7,828 credit for the 8d cycle → $29,355/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $20.13) 71% EV / mo $-2,283 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 35% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~10.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,621/mo median; plan ~$5,182/mo after 68% keep · $55,580 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [1.9-5.3], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 73% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,341 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $22 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 103 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.67/sh now → $1.18 mid-life (likely $1.60–$2.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.76/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,195 simulated challenges: the $19 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $20 (overshoots $0.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $19 is $14 below CC-SS $33.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.76 collected) or spot ≥ $20.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $19)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $33.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-152,312 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$144,928 − CC assignment net of premium (103 × $19): -$141,519 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (22 × $32.50): -$2,177 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-151,081 (+$1,231 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19,756 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-131,325, the opportunity cost of earning $29,355/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $25.54 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$59,534, position total $-145,001 (+$7,311 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.785 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$144,928 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-19,756
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.39 | 100/125 | $14,625 | $14,675 | 75% | 81% | +$1,769 | -$126,097 | 456.5% | $-135,956 (vs do-nothing $-116,200) |
| $21 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.61 | 120/125 | $14,640 | $14,650 | 75% | 81% | +$2,627 | -$142,676 | 516.5% | $-150,556 (vs do-nothing $-130,800) |
| $21 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.86 | 125/125 | $14,659 | $14,659 | 72% | 79% | +$1,722 | -$145,496 | 526.7% | $-152,881 (vs do-nothing $-133,125) |
| $20.50 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.73 | 101/125 | $14,746 | $14,794 | 71% | 78% | +$2,119 | -$123,924 | 448.6% | $-133,684 (vs do-nothing $-113,928) |
| $20 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.54 | 73/125 | $14,783 | $14,887 | 70% | 78% | +$2,003 | -$94,606 | 342.5% | $-107,137 (vs do-nothing $-87,381) |
| $20 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.77 | 95/125 | $14,630 | $14,690 | 67% | 76% | $-110 | -$120,932 | 437.8% | $-131,286 (vs do-nothing $-111,530) |
| $20 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.04 | 104/125 | $14,749 | $14,791 | 65% | 75% | $-218 | -$129,581 | 469.1% | $-139,044 (vs do-nothing $-119,288) |
| $19.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.56 | 70/125 | $14,700 | $14,810 | 64% | 74% | $-1,684 | -$94,078 | 340.6% | $-106,906 (vs do-nothing $-87,150) |
| $19.50 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.97 | 76/125 | $14,744 | $14,842 | 62% | 73% | +$218 | -$99,026 | 358.5% | $-111,260 (vs do-nothing $-91,504) |
| $19 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.46 | 74/125 | $14,733 | $14,835 | 57% | 71% | +$212 | -$96,494 | 349.3% | $-108,926 (vs do-nothing $-89,170) |
| $19 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.27 | 58/125 | $14,732 | $14,866 | 57% | 72% | +$1,197 | -$76,732 | 277.8% | $-90,748 (vs do-nothing $-70,992) |
| $19 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.76 | 52/125 | $14,820 | $14,966 | 57% | 71% | $-1,153 | -$71,446 | 258.6% | $-86,056 (vs do-nothing $-66,300) |
| $18.50 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.40 | 53/125 | $14,840 | $14,984 | 52% | 69% | $-114 | -$72,078 | 260.9% | $-86,589 (vs do-nothing $-66,833) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $18.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.15 | 34/125 | $14,662 | $14,844 | 50% | 69% | +$1,212 | -$47,089 | 170.5% | $-63,480 (vs do-nothing $-43,724) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.