125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $34.75 (banked floor $34.31) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $36,328/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $3,891/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-119,187 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 4 Sep 2026 · 2d | 81 × $25 | 86% | $18,225 | $11,156 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 11 Sep 2026 · 9d | 124 × $25.50 | 76% | $18,187 | $1,562 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 115 × $26 | 4 Sep | 2d | 10.6% | 96%hist 96% | 8%hist 2% | +9pp | $805 | $12,075 | -$6,150 | $99,796 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 115 × $26 10.6% OTM over spot $23.50 4 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.08 mid) = $805 credit for the 2d cycle → $12,075/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $26.08) 96% EV / mo +$10,241 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,463/mo median; plan ~$5,075/mo after 68% keep · $41,575 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.4-4.9], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,638 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $30 @ 82% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 115 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.04/sh now → $0.73 mid-life (likely $0.74–$1.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 154 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $27 (overshoots $0.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $9 below CC-SS $34.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $26.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $25.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-119,187 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,698 − CC assignment net of premium (115 × $26): -$99,796 + Conservative CC premium (10 × $35): +$30 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-102,256 (+$16,931 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,115 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-100,141, the opportunity cost of earning $12,075/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.05 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$91,770, position total $-101,471 (+$17,716 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $26 | 4 Sep | 2d | 10.6% | 96%hist 96% | 8%hist 2% | +9pp | $875 | $13,125 | -$5,100 | $108,474 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $26 10.6% OTM over spot $23.50 4 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.08 mid) = $875 credit for the 2d cycle → $13,125/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $26.08) 96% EV / mo +$11,132 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,322/mo median; plan ~$5,659/mo after 68% keep · $44,064 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.3-4.6], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,302 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $30 @ 82% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.04/sh now → $0.73 mid-life (likely $0.78–$1.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 122 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $27 (overshoots $0.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $9 below CC-SS $34.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $26.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $25.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-119,187 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,698 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $26): -$108,474 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-110,964 (+$8,223 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,115 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-108,849, the opportunity cost of earning $13,125/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.05 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$99,750, position total $-109,481 (+$9,706 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 81 × $25 | 4 Sep | 2d | 6.4% | 86%hist 86% | 29%hist 27% | +14pp | $1,215 | $18,225 | — | $77,743 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 81 × $25 6.4% OTM over spot $23.50 4 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.18 mid) = $1,215 credit for the 2d cycle → $18,225/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $25.18) 88% EV / mo +$10,269 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $11,150/mo median; plan ~$7,582/mo after 68% keep · $63,682 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.4-5.0], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,361 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $30 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 81 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.97/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.77–$1.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 486 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $26 (overshoots $0.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $10 below CC-SS $34.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $25.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $25.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-119,187 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,698 − CC assignment net of premium (81 × $25): -$77,743 + Conservative CC premium (44 × $35): +$132 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-80,101 (+$39,086 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,115 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-77,986, the opportunity cost of earning $18,225/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.05 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$72,090, position total $-81,689 (+$37,498 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 54 × $24 | 4 Sep | 2d | 2.1% | 65%hist 67% | 72%hist 65% | +14pp | $2,430 | $36,450 | +$18,225 | $55,609 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 54 × $24 2.1% OTM over spot $23.50 4 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.50 mid) = $2,430 credit for the 2d cycle → $36,450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $24.50) 77% EV / mo +$14,581 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~13.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,131/mo median; plan ~$8,929/mo after 68% keep · $81,261 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.5-4.4], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 45% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,048 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 18 Sep 2026) $29 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 54 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.91/sh now → $0.64 mid-life (likely $0.82–$1.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,338 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $25 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24 is $11 below CC-SS $34.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $24.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $25.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-119,187 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,698 − CC assignment net of premium (54 × $24): -$55,609 + Conservative CC premium (71 × $35): +$213 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-57,886 (+$61,302 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,115 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-55,771, the opportunity cost of earning $36,450/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.05 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$51,840, position total $-61,358 (+$57,829 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $30 | 11 Sep | 9d | 27.7% | 96%hist 96% | 9%hist 2% | +1pp | $625 | $2,083 | -$16,103 | $58,724 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $30 27.7% OTM over spot $23.50 11 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.10 mid) = $625 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,083/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $30.10) 96% EV / mo +$748 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,528/mo median; plan ~$1,039/mo after 68% keep · $8,559 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.2-4.0], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$16,550 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $32 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.94/sh now → $1.37 mid-life (likely $0.92–$1.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 105 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $31 (overshoots $0.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $5 below CC-SS $34.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $30.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $25.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-119,187 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,698 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $30): -$58,724 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-61,214 (+$57,973 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,115 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-59,099, the opportunity cost of earning $2,083/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.05 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$50,000, position total $-59,731 (+$59,456 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 103 × $26 | 11 Sep | 9d | 10.6% | 80%hist 84% | 42%hist 38% | +6pp | $3,605 | $12,017 | -$6,170 | $86,499 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 103 × $26 10.6% OTM over spot $23.50 11 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.40 mid) = $3,605 credit for the 9d cycle → $12,017/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $26.39) 83% EV / mo +$2,686 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,784/mo median; plan ~$3,933/mo after 68% keep · $38,545 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.4-4.6], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,561 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $30 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 103 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.53/sh now → $1.08 mid-life (likely $1.11–$1.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 899 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $27 (overshoots $0.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $9 below CC-SS $34.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $26.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $25.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-119,187 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,698 − CC assignment net of premium (103 × $26): -$86,499 + Conservative CC premium (22 × $35): +$66 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-88,923 (+$30,265 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,115 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-86,808, the opportunity cost of earning $12,017/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.05 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$79,310, position total $-88,975 (+$30,212 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 124 × $25.50 | 11 Sep | 9d | 8.5% | 76%hist 84% | 51%hist 43% | +8pp | $5,456 | $18,187 | — | $109,219 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 124 × $25.50 8.5% OTM over spot $23.50 11 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.49 mid) = $5,456 credit for the 9d cycle → $18,187/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $25.99) 80% EV / mo +$3,312 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,770/mo median; plan ~$5,283/mo after 68% keep · $50,483 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.4-4.5], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,566 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $29 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 124 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.48/sh now → $1.05 mid-life (likely $1.17–$1.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,162 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $26 (overshoots $0.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $9 below CC-SS $34.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $25.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $25.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-119,187 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,698 − CC assignment net of premium (124 × $25.50): -$109,219 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $35): +$3 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-111,706 (+$7,482 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,115 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-109,591, the opportunity cost of earning $18,187/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.05 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$100,564, position total $-110,292 (+$8,895 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 122 × $24 | 11 Sep | 9d | 2.1% | 59%hist 70% | 86%hist 79% | +12pp | $10,980 | $36,600 | +$18,413 | $120,145 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 122 × $24 2.1% OTM over spot $23.50 11 Sep 2026 (9d, $1.00 mid) = $10,980 credit for the 9d cycle → $36,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $25.00) 71% EV / mo +$4,210 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $11,065/mo median; plan ~$7,524/mo after 68% keep · $64,538 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.2-4.3], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$627 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 18 Sep 2026) $29 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 122 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.35/sh now → $0.95 mid-life (likely $1.29–$1.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,077 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $25 (overshoots $0.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24 is $11 below CC-SS $34.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.90 collected) or spot ≥ $25.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $25.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-119,187 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$116,698 − CC assignment net of premium (122 × $24): -$120,145 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $35): +$9 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-122,626 ($-3,439 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,115 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-120,511, the opportunity cost of earning $36,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.05 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$111,630, position total $-121,352 ($-2,165 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.830 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$116,698 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,115
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $0.15 | 81/125 | $18,225 | $18,472 | 86% | 88% | +$10,269 | -$77,743 | 281.4% | $-80,101 (vs do-nothing $-77,986) |
| $25.50 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.44 | 124/125 | $18,187 | $18,192 | 76% | 80% | +$3,312 | -$109,219 | 395.4% | $-111,706 (vs do-nothing $-109,591) |
| $25.50 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.81 | 120/125 | $18,225 | $18,253 | 71% | 78% | +$4,168 | -$101,255 | 366.5% | $-103,730 (vs do-nothing $-101,615) |
| $25 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.56 | 98/125 | $18,293 | $18,445 | 71% | 77% | +$2,825 | -$90,042 | 325.9% | $-92,451 (vs do-nothing $-90,336) |
| $25 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.98 | 99/125 | $18,191 | $18,338 | 67% | 76% | +$4,036 | -$86,803 | 314.2% | $-89,215 (vs do-nothing $-87,100) |
| $25 | 23d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.30 | 108/125 | $18,313 | $18,409 | 66% | 75% | +$3,964 | -$91,238 | 330.3% | $-93,677 (vs do-nothing $-91,562) |
| $24.50 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.71 | 77/125 | $18,223 | $18,493 | 65% | 74% | +$2,373 | -$73,442 | 265.9% | $-75,788 (vs do-nothing $-73,673) |
| $24 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $0.45 | 27/125 | $18,225 | $18,776 | 65% | 77% | +$7,291 | -$27,804 | 100.6% | $-30,000 (vs do-nothing $-27,885) |
| $24.50 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.14 | 85/125 | $18,169 | $18,394 | 63% | 73% | +$3,414 | -$77,418 | 280.2% | $-79,788 (vs do-nothing $-77,673) |
| $24 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.90 | 61/125 | $18,300 | $18,660 | 59% | 71% | +$2,105 | -$60,073 | 217.5% | $-62,370 (vs do-nothing $-60,256) |
| $24 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.33 | 73/125 | $18,204 | $18,497 | 58% | 71% | +$2,917 | -$68,751 | 248.9% | $-71,085 (vs do-nothing $-68,970) |
| $24 | 23d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.68 | 83/125 | $18,188 | $18,424 | 58% | 71% | +$3,250 | -$75,264 | 272.4% | $-77,628 (vs do-nothing $-75,513) |
| $23.50 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.55 | 63/125 | $18,309 | $18,658 | 53% | 68% | +$2,506 | -$61,097 | 221.2% | $-63,401 (vs do-nothing $-61,286) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23.50 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.12 | 49/125 | $18,293 | $18,721 | 53% | 68% | +$1,733 | -$49,627 | 179.6% | $-51,889 (vs do-nothing $-49,774) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.