125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $34.77 (banked floor $34.34) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $35,750/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $3,713/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-102,938 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 11 Sep 2026 · 8d | 120 × $26 | 64% | $18,000 | $-10,967 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $30 | 11 Sep | 8d | 19.4% | 93%hist 96% | 15%hist 13% | +1pp | $625 | $2,344 | -$15,656 | $59,010 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $30 19.4% OTM over spot $25.12 11 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.10 mid) = $625 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,344/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $30.10) 93% EV / mo $-779 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,562/mo median; plan ~$1,062/mo after 68% keep · $8,532 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.6], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14,784 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $33 @ 78% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.74/sh now → $1.23 mid-life (likely $0.93–$1.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 219 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $31 (overshoots $0.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $5 below CC-SS $34.77: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $30.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.77, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-102,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$101,575 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $30): -$59,010 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-60,373 (+$42,565 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,113 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-59,260, the opportunity cost of earning $2,344/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.05 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$50,000, position total $-58,949 (+$43,988 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 93 × $27 | 11 Sep | 8d | 7.5% | 76%hist 84% | 51%hist 43% | +6pp | $3,162 | $11,858 | -$6,142 | $69,107 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 93 × $27 7.5% OTM over spot $25.12 11 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.50 mid) = $3,162 credit for the 8d cycle → $11,858/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $27.50) 80% EV / mo +$305 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,389/mo median; plan ~$3,664/mo after 68% keep · $28,688 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.2-4.0], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,429 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $30 @ 80% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 93 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.46/sh now → $1.03 mid-life (likely $1.09–$1.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,115 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $28 (overshoots $0.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $8 below CC-SS $34.77: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.34 collected) or spot ≥ $27.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.77, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-102,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$101,575 − CC assignment net of premium (93 × $27): -$69,107 + Conservative CC premium (32 × $35): +$64 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-70,405 (+$32,532 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,113 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-69,293, the opportunity cost of earning $11,858/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.05 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$62,403, position total $-71,288 (+$31,649 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 120 × $26 | 11 Sep | 8d | 3.5% | 64%hist 66% | 74%hist 65% | +7pp | $4,800 | $18,000 | — | $100,450 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 120 × $26 3.5% OTM over spot $25.12 11 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.71 mid) = $4,800 credit for the 8d cycle → $18,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $26.70) 73% EV / mo $-8,598 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,137/mo median; plan ~$4,173/mo after 68% keep · $36,286 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.1-4.1], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 59% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,817 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $29 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 120 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.37/sh now → $0.97 mid-life (likely $1.25–$1.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,784 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $27 (overshoots $0.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $9 below CC-SS $34.77: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $26.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.77, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-102,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$101,575 − CC assignment net of premium (120 × $26): -$100,450 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $35): +$10 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-101,802 (+$1,135 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,113 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-100,690, the opportunity cost of earning $18,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.05 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$91,800, position total $-100,739 (+$2,198 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 120 × $25 | 11 Sep | 8d | -0.5% | 50%hist 69% | 100%hist 89% | · | $9,600 | $36,000 | +$18,000 | $107,650 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 120 × $25 0.5% ITM over spot $25.12 11 Sep 2026 (8d, $1.08 mid) = $9,600 credit for the 8d cycle → $36,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 50% Breach risk 50% POP (stays ≤ $26.08) 65% EV / mo $-9,247 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,281 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $31 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 120 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.28/sh now → $0.91 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $10 below CC-SS $34.77: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.80 collected) or spot ≥ $26.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.77, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-102,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$101,575 − CC assignment net of premium (120 × $25): -$107,650 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $35): +$10 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-109,002 ($-6,065 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,113 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-107,890, the opportunity cost of earning $36,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.05 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$99,000, position total $-107,939 ($-5,002 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.842 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$101,575 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,113
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26 | 8d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.40 | 120/125 | $18,000 | $18,020 | 64% | 73% | $-8,598 | -$100,450 | 363.6% | $-101,802 (vs do-nothing $-100,690) |
| $26 | 15d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.76 | 118/125 | $17,936 | $17,964 | 61% | 71% | $-6,700 | -$94,528 | 342.2% | $-95,876 (vs do-nothing $-94,764) |
| $26 | 22d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.06 | 124/125 | $17,924 | $17,928 | 61% | 71% | $-3,530 | -$95,614 | 346.1% | $-96,975 (vs do-nothing $-95,862) |
| $25.50 | 8d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.53 | 90/125 | $17,888 | $18,028 | 58% | 69% | $-8,338 | -$78,667 | 284.8% | $-79,960 (vs do-nothing $-78,847) |
| $25.50 | 15d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.86 | 104/125 | $17,888 | $17,972 | 57% | 68% | $-7,961 | -$87,472 | 316.6% | $-88,793 (vs do-nothing $-87,680) |
| $25 | 22d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.56 | 85/125 | $18,082 | $18,242 | 53% | 68% | $-1,625 | -$69,792 | 252.6% | $-71,075 (vs do-nothing $-69,962) |
| $25 | 15d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.55 | 58/125 | $17,980 | $18,248 | 52% | 68% | +$929 | -$47,681 | 172.6% | $-48,909 (vs do-nothing $-47,797) |
| $25 | 8d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.80 | 60/125 | $18,000 | $18,260 | 50% | 65% | $-4,623 | -$53,825 | 194.8% | $-55,058 (vs do-nothing $-53,945) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.