125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $34.50 (banked floor $34.07) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $38,839/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $3,534/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-88,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 11 Sep 2026 · 7d | 75 × $27 | 62% | $19,607 | $-2,415 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $32 | 18 Sep | 14d | 21.9% | 91%hist 96% | 20%hist 13% | +2pp | $1,125 | $2,411 | -$17,196 | $30,169 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $32 21.9% OTM over spot $26.25 18 Sep 2026 (14d, $0.32 mid) = $1,125 credit for the 14d cycle → $2,411/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $32) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $32.32) 92% EV / mo $-1,006 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,696/mo median; plan ~$1,153/mo after 68% keep · $6,419 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.3], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$22,797 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $34 @ 72% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.70/sh now → $1.91 mid-life (likely $1.60–$2.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 512 simulated challenges: the $32 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 14, at $33 (overshoots $0.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $32 is $3 below CC-SS $34.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $32.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $32)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-88,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$88,106 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $32): -$30,169 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,313 (+$57,937 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,294, the opportunity cost of earning $2,411/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.10 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$25,125, position total $-29,576 (+$58,674 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 104 × $28 | 11 Sep | 7d | 6.7% | 74%hist 84% | 54%hist 43% | +3pp | $3,016 | $12,926 | -$6,681 | $64,620 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 104 × $28 6.7% OTM over spot $26.25 11 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.51 mid) = $3,016 credit for the 7d cycle → $12,926/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $28.51) 79% EV / mo $-3,210 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,878/mo median; plan ~$3,997/mo after 68% keep · $21,766 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.1], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,109 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $32 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 104 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.51/sh now → $1.07 mid-life (likely $1.22–$1.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,226 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $29 (overshoots $0.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $7 below CC-SS $34.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $28.51 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-88,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$88,106 − CC assignment net of premium (104 × $28): -$64,620 + Conservative CC premium (21 × $35): +$21 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-64,743 (+$23,507 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-64,724, the opportunity cost of earning $12,926/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.10 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$60,424, position total $-64,854 (+$23,396 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 75 × $27 | 11 Sep | 7d | 2.9% | 62%hist 66% | 78%hist 65% | +9pp | $4,575 | $19,607 | — | $51,701 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 75 × $27 2.9% OTM over spot $26.25 11 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.84 mid) = $4,575 credit for the 7d cycle → $19,607/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $27.84) 73% EV / mo $-1,027 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,667/mo median; plan ~$4,533/mo after 68% keep · $31,243 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-4.1], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,978 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $32 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 75 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.42/sh now → $1.01 mid-life (likely $1.31–$1.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,832 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $28 (overshoots $0.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $8 below CC-SS $34.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.61 collected) or spot ≥ $27.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-88,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$88,106 − CC assignment net of premium (75 × $27): -$51,701 + Conservative CC premium (50 × $35): +$50 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-51,795 (+$36,455 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-51,776, the opportunity cost of earning $19,607/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.10 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$48,675, position total $-53,076 (+$35,174 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 118 × $26.50 | 11 Sep | 7d | 1.0% | 56%hist 69% | 93%hist 89% | +13pp | $9,086 | $38,940 | +$19,333 | $85,355 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 118 × $26.50 1.0% OTM over spot $26.25 11 Sep 2026 (7d, $1.02 mid) = $9,086 credit for the 7d cycle → $38,940/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 56% Breach risk 44% POP (stays ≤ $27.52) 69% EV / mo $-3,456 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $12,202/mo median; plan ~$8,297/mo after 68% keep · $41,283 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.4], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 73% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,437 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $32 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 118 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.38/sh now → $0.98 mid-life (likely $1.34–$1.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,204 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $27 (overshoots $0.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $8 below CC-SS $34.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.77 collected) or spot ≥ $27.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-88,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$88,106 − CC assignment net of premium (118 × $26.50): -$85,355 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $35): +$7 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-85,492 (+$2,758 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-85,473, the opportunity cost of earning $38,940/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.10 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$80,594, position total $-85,038 (+$3,212 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.854 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$88,106 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-19
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $28.50 | 14d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.77 | 118/125 | $19,470 | $19,485 | 72% | 79% | +$3,730 | -$61,755 | 223.5% | $-61,892 (vs do-nothing $-61,873) |
| $28 | 14d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.92 | 99/125 | $19,517 | $19,573 | 69% | 77% | +$3,428 | -$55,276 | 200.1% | $-55,395 (vs do-nothing $-55,375) |
| $28 | 21d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.28 | 107/125 | $19,566 | $19,604 | 67% | 75% | +$3,374 | -$55,891 | 202.3% | $-56,017 (vs do-nothing $-55,998) |
| $28 | 28d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.55 | 117/125 | $19,430 | $19,448 | 65% | 75% | +$2,356 | -$57,956 | 209.8% | $-58,092 (vs do-nothing $-58,073) |
| $27.50 | 14d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.08 | 84/125 | $19,440 | $19,528 | 64% | 74% | +$2,935 | -$49,757 | 180.1% | $-49,860 (vs do-nothing $-49,841) |
| $27 | 7d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.61 | 75/125 | $19,607 | $19,714 | 62% | 73% | $-1,027 | -$51,701 | 187.2% | $-51,795 (vs do-nothing $-51,776) |
| $27 | 14d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.26 | 72/125 | $19,440 | $19,554 | 60% | 72% | +$1,873 | -$44,953 | 162.7% | $-45,044 (vs do-nothing $-45,025) |
| $27 | 21d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.57 | 87/125 | $19,513 | $19,594 | 60% | 72% | +$1,887 | -$51,621 | 186.9% | $-51,727 (vs do-nothing $-51,708) |
| $27 | 28d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.90 | 96/125 | $19,543 | $19,605 | 59% | 72% | +$1,973 | -$53,793 | 194.7% | $-53,909 (vs do-nothing $-53,889) |
| $26.50 | 7d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.77 | 59/125 | $19,470 | $19,611 | 56% | 69% | $-1,728 | -$42,678 | 154.5% | $-42,756 (vs do-nothing $-42,737) |
| $26.50 | 14d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.47 | 62/125 | $19,530 | $19,665 | 56% | 70% | +$1,610 | -$40,508 | 146.6% | $-40,589 (vs do-nothing $-40,570) |
| $26 | 28d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.20 | 83/125 | $19,564 | $19,654 | 53% | 70% | +$623 | -$52,319 | 189.4% | $-52,421 (vs do-nothing $-52,402) |
| $26 | 21d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.07 | 66/125 | $19,517 | $19,644 | 52% | 68% | +$1,955 | -$42,461 | 153.7% | $-42,546 (vs do-nothing $-42,527) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26 | 14d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.70 | 54/125 | $19,671 | $19,824 | 51% | 67% | +$1,307 | -$36,739 | 133.0% | $-36,812 (vs do-nothing $-36,793) |
| $26 | 7d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.10 | 42/125 | $19,800 | $19,978 | 49% | 66% | +$411 | -$31,095 | 112.6% | $-31,156 (vs do-nothing $-31,137) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.