25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $34.54 (banked floor $32.35) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $7,412/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $690/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-17,775 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $30C 11 Sep 2026 | U10001299 | $0.13 | $1,258 | 2026-09-08 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 11 Sep 2026 · 3d | 14 × $28 | 79% | $3,780 | $761 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 18 Sep 2026 · 10d | 25 × $29 | 78% | $3,825 | $-1,186 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $30 | 11 Sep | 3d | 14.4% | 94%hist 96% | 12%hist 13% | +4pp | $200 | $2,000 | -$1,780 | $11,152 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $30 14.4% OTM over spot $26.23 11 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.28 mid) = $200 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $30.28) 95% EV / mo +$1,244 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 75% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,459/mo median; plan ~$992/mo after 68% keep · $3,029 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.4-2.9], measured ONLY among the 75% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,674 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $35 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.63/sh now → $1.15 mid-life (likely $0.99–$1.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 120 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $31 (overshoots $0.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $5 below CC-SS $34.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $30.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,702 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $30): -$11,152 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,225 (+$6,550 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,900 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,325, the opportunity cost of earning $2,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.10 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,050, position total $-11,062 (+$6,713 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 18 × $28.50 | 11 Sep | 3d | 8.7% | 84%hist 86% | 33%hist 31% | +4pp | $252 | $2,520 | -$1,260 | $10,622 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $28.50 8.7% OTM over spot $26.23 11 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.35 mid) = $252 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $28.85) 87% EV / mo +$117 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,466/mo median; plan ~$997/mo after 68% keep · $2,603 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,653 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $33 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.50/sh now → $1.06 mid-life (likely $1.09–$1.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 539 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $29 (overshoots $0.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28.50 is $6 below CC-SS $34.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $28.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,702 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $28.50): -$10,622 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $33): -$1,072 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,766 (+$6,009 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,900 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,866, the opportunity cost of earning $2,520/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.10 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,828, position total $-11,603 (+$6,172 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 14 × $28 | 11 Sep | 3d | 6.7% | 79%hist 83% | 43%hist 39% | +7pp | $378 | $3,780 | — | $8,779 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $28 6.7% OTM over spot $26.23 11 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.36 mid) = $378 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,780/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $28.36) 83% EV / mo +$940 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,929/mo median; plan ~$1,311/mo after 68% keep · $4,277 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.4], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,063 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $33 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.46/sh now → $1.03 mid-life (likely $1.08–$2.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 723 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $29 (overshoots $0.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $7 below CC-SS $34.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $28.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,702 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $28): -$8,779 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $33): -$1,684 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,536 (+$7,239 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,900 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,636, the opportunity cost of earning $3,780/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.10 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,162, position total $-10,373 (+$7,402 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $27.50 | 11 Sep | 3d | 4.8% | 73%hist 83% | 56%hist 44% | +15pp | $760 | $7,600 | +$3,820 | $13,322 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $27.50 4.8% OTM over spot $26.23 11 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.59 mid) = $760 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $28.09) 80% EV / mo +$1,655 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 79% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,356/mo median; plan ~$2,282/mo after 68% keep · $6,317 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.6], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,240 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $32 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.41/sh now → $1.00 mid-life (likely $1.13–$2.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,084 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $28 (overshoots $0.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $7 below CC-SS $34.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $28.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,702 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $27.50): -$13,322 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $33): -$765 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,160 (+$3,615 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,900 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,260, the opportunity cost of earning $7,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.10 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,440, position total $-13,997 (+$3,778 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 25 × $32.50 | 18 Sep | 10d | 23.9% | 93%hist 96% | 14%hist 13% | +1pp | $125 | $375 | -$3,450 | $4,977 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $32.50 23.9% OTM over spot $26.23 18 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.32 mid) = $125 credit for the 10d cycle → $375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $32.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $32.82) 94% EV / mo $-177 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $294/mo median; plan ~$200/mo after 68% keep · $610 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.4], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,521 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $33 @ 69% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.63/sh now → $1.86 mid-life (likely $1.34–$2.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 257 simulated challenges: the $32 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $33 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $32.50 is $2 below CC-SS $34.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $32.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $32)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,702 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $32.50): -$4,977 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,050 (+$12,725 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,900 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,150, the opportunity cost of earning $375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.10 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,875, position total $-4,887 (+$12,888 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 16 × $29 | 18 Sep | 10d | 10.6% | 78%hist 83% | 46%hist 39% | +6pp | $816 | $2,448 | -$1,377 | $8,050 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $29 10.6% OTM over spot $26.23 18 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.66 mid) = $816 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,448/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $29.66) 82% EV / mo +$562 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,379/mo median; plan ~$938/mo after 68% keep · $3,566 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.8], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,655 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $32 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.18/sh now → $1.54 mid-life (likely $1.65–$2.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,054 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $30 (overshoots $0.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $6 below CC-SS $34.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.51 collected) or spot ≥ $29.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,702 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $29): -$8,050 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $33): -$1,378 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,500 (+$8,275 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,900 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,600, the opportunity cost of earning $2,448/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.10 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,344, position total $-9,337 (+$8,438 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 25 × $29 | 18 Sep | 10d | 10.6% | 78%hist 83% | 46%hist 39% | +11pp | $1,275 | $3,825 | — | $12,577 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $29 10.6% OTM over spot $26.23 18 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.66 mid) = $1,275 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,825/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $29.66) 82% EV / mo +$878 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 78% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,391/mo median; plan ~$1,626/mo after 68% keep · $3,865 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.3], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,586 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $32 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.18/sh now → $1.54 mid-life (likely $1.60–$2.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,106 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $30 (overshoots $0.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $6 below CC-SS $34.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.51 collected) or spot ≥ $29.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,702 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $29): -$12,577 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,650 (+$5,125 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,900 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,750, the opportunity cost of earning $3,825/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.10 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,475, position total $-12,487 (+$5,288 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 25 × $27.50 | 18 Sep | 10d | 4.8% | 66%hist 65% | 72%hist 64% | +16pp | $2,500 | $7,500 | +$3,675 | $15,102 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $27.50 4.8% OTM over spot $26.23 18 Sep 2026 (10d, $1.22 mid) = $2,500 credit for the 10d cycle → $7,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $28.72) 76% EV / mo +$1,811 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +16pp 84% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,335/mo median; plan ~$2,948/mo after 68% keep · $5,091 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 84% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,046 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $33 @ 85% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.00/sh now → $1.42 mid-life (likely $1.75–$2.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,751 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $28 (overshoots $0.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $7 below CC-SS $34.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.00 collected) or spot ≥ $28.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,702 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $27.50): -$15,102 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,175 (+$2,600 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,900 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,275, the opportunity cost of earning $7,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.10 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,000, position total $-15,012 (+$2,763 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.852 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$17,702 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,900
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $28 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.27 | 14/25 | $3,780 | $3,813 | 79% | 83% | +$940 | -$8,779 | 158.9% | $-10,536 (vs do-nothing $-6,636) |
| $29 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.51 | 25/25 | $3,825 | $3,825 | 78% | 82% | +$878 | -$12,577 | 227.6% | $-12,650 (vs do-nothing $-8,750) |
| $28.50 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.62 | 20/25 | $3,720 | $3,735 | 74% | 80% | +$764 | -$10,842 | 196.2% | $-11,680 (vs do-nothing $-7,780) |
| $29 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.86 | 25/25 | $3,794 | $3,794 | 74% | 80% | +$836 | -$11,702 | 211.8% | $-11,775 (vs do-nothing $-7,875) |
| $27.50 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.38 | 10/25 | $3,800 | $3,845 | 73% | 80% | +$827 | -$6,661 | 120.6% | $-9,030 (vs do-nothing $-5,130) |
| $28 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.76 | 17/25 | $3,876 | $3,900 | 70% | 77% | +$747 | -$9,828 | 177.9% | $-11,125 (vs do-nothing $-7,225) |
| $28 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.00 | 21/25 | $3,706 | $3,718 | 68% | 76% | +$334 | -$11,636 | 210.6% | $-12,321 (vs do-nothing $-8,421) |
| $28 | 24d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.30 | 23/25 | $3,738 | $3,744 | 66% | 75% | +$98 | -$12,054 | 218.2% | $-12,433 (vs do-nothing $-8,533) |
| $27.50 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.00 | 13/25 | $3,900 | $3,936 | 66% | 76% | +$942 | -$7,853 | 142.1% | $-9,763 (vs do-nothing $-5,863) |
| $27 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.62 | 6/25 | $3,720 | $3,777 | 65% | 75% | +$1,180 | -$4,153 | 75.2% | $-7,134 (vs do-nothing $-3,234) |
| $27 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.11 | 12/25 | $3,996 | $4,035 | 61% | 73% | +$646 | -$7,717 | 139.7% | $-9,780 (vs do-nothing $-5,880) |
| $27 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.45 | 15/25 | $3,838 | $3,868 | 60% | 73% | +$576 | -$9,136 | 165.4% | $-10,740 (vs do-nothing $-6,840) |
| $27 | 24d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.70 | 18/25 | $3,825 | $3,846 | 60% | 71% | +$108 | -$10,514 | 190.3% | $-11,658 (vs do-nothing $-7,758) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26.50 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.71 | 6/25 | $4,260 | $4,317 | 57% | 71% | +$721 | -$4,399 | 79.6% | $-7,380 (vs do-nothing $-3,480) |
| $26.50 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.26 | 10/25 | $3,780 | $3,825 | 56% | 70% | +$384 | -$6,781 | 122.7% | $-9,150 (vs do-nothing $-5,250) |
| $26 | 24d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.20 | 14/25 | $3,850 | $3,883 | 53% | 69% | +$78 | -$8,877 | 160.7% | $-10,634 (vs do-nothing $-6,734) |
| $26 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.91 | 11/25 | $3,708 | $3,750 | 51% | 69% | +$495 | -$7,294 | 132.0% | $-9,510 (vs do-nothing $-5,610) |
| $26 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.35 | 10/25 | $4,050 | $4,095 | 50% | 67% | $-47 | -$7,191 | 130.2% | $-9,560 (vs do-nothing $-5,660) |
| $26 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.91 | 5/25 | $4,550 | $4,610 | 47% | 69% | +$514 | -$3,815 | 69.1% | $-6,950 (vs do-nothing $-3,050) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.