25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $34.31 (banked floor $32.11) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,891/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $676/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-16,713 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $30C 11 Sep 2026 | U10001299 | $0.13 | $1,258 | 2026-09-08 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 11 Sep 2026 · 2d | 10 × $28 | 79% | $3,450 | $1,681 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 18 Sep 2026 · 9d | 18 × $28.50 | 72% | $3,600 | $-515 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 22 × $29.50 | 11 Sep | 2d | 11.4% | 93%hist 96% | 14%hist 13% | +5pp | $154 | $2,310 | -$1,140 | $10,418 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $29.50 11.4% OTM over spot $26.49 11 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.11 mid) = $154 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,310/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $29.61) 94% EV / mo +$1,248 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 71% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,702/mo median; plan ~$1,157/mo after 68% keep · $2,405 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-1.7], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,772 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $34 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.24/sh now → $0.88 mid-life (likely $0.89–$1.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 174 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $30 (overshoots $0.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29.50 is $5 below CC-SS $34.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $29.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,713 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,686 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $29.50): -$10,418 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $36): +$12 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,433 (+$6,280 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $74 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,506, the opportunity cost of earning $2,310/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.12 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,010, position total $-10,420 (+$6,292 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 25 × $29.50 | 11 Sep | 2d | 11.4% | 93%hist 96% | 14%hist 13% | +6pp | $175 | $2,625 | -$825 | $11,839 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $29.50 11.4% OTM over spot $26.49 11 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.11 mid) = $175 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $29.61) 94% EV / mo +$1,418 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 75% whole by 9mo vs 69% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,923/mo median; plan ~$1,307/mo after 68% keep · $3,142 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 75% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,013 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $34 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.24/sh now → $0.88 mid-life (likely $0.86–$1.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 191 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $30 (overshoots $0.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29.50 is $5 below CC-SS $34.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $29.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,713 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,686 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $29.50): -$11,839 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,865 (+$4,847 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $74 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,939, the opportunity cost of earning $2,625/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.12 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,375, position total $-11,797 (+$4,915 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $28 | 11 Sep | 2d | 5.7% | 79%hist 83% | 42%hist 39% | +5pp | $230 | $3,450 | — | $6,076 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $28 5.7% OTM over spot $26.49 11 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.27 mid) = $230 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $28.27) 83% EV / mo +$1,090 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 75% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,838/mo median; plan ~$1,250/mo after 68% keep · $2,998 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.2], measured ONLY among the 75% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$577 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $33 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.14/sh now → $0.81 mid-life (likely $0.92–$1.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 734 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $29 (overshoots $0.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $6 below CC-SS $34.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $28.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,713 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,686 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $28): -$6,076 + Conservative CC premium (15 × $36): +$60 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,042 (+$10,671 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $74 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,116, the opportunity cost of earning $3,450/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.12 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,890, position total $-6,252 (+$10,460 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $28 | 11 Sep | 2d | 5.7% | 79%hist 83% | 42%hist 39% | +10pp | $460 | $6,900 | +$3,450 | $12,151 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $28 5.7% OTM over spot $26.49 11 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.27 mid) = $460 credit for the 2d cycle → $6,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $28.27) 83% EV / mo +$2,180 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 81% whole by 9mo vs 71% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,753/mo median; plan ~$2,552/mo after 68% keep · $4,547 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.4-1.8], measured ONLY among the 81% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,154 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $33 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.14/sh now → $0.81 mid-life (likely $0.93–$1.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 750 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $29 (overshoots $0.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $6 below CC-SS $34.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $28.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,713 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,686 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $28): -$12,151 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $36): +$20 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,157 (+$4,555 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $74 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,231, the opportunity cost of earning $6,900/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.12 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,780, position total $-12,182 (+$4,530 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $33 | 18 Sep | 9d | 24.6% | 93%hist 96% | 14%hist 13% | +0pp | $125 | $417 | -$3,183 | $3,139 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $33 24.6% OTM over spot $26.49 18 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.15 mid) = $125 credit for the 9d cycle → $417/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $33) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $33.15) 94% EV / mo $-199 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $275/mo median; plan ~$187/mo after 68% keep · $699 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,324 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $35 @ 72% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.52/sh now → $1.78 mid-life (likely $1.24–$2.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 241 simulated challenges: the $33 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $34 (overshoots $0.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $33 is $1 below CC-SS $34.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $33.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $33)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,713 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,686 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $33): -$3,139 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,165 (+$13,547 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $74 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,239, the opportunity cost of earning $417/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.12 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,675, position total $-3,097 (+$13,615 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $30 | 18 Sep | 9d | 13.3% | 82%hist 86% | 37%hist 31% | +5pp | $700 | $2,333 | -$1,267 | $7,911 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $30 13.3% OTM over spot $26.49 18 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.49 mid) = $700 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $30.49) 85% EV / mo +$397 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 69% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,560/mo median; plan ~$1,061/mo after 68% keep · $2,668 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,356 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $33 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.16/sh now → $1.53 mid-life (likely $1.47–$2.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 775 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $31 (overshoots $0.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $4 below CC-SS $34.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $30.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,713 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,686 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $30): -$7,911 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $36): +$20 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,917 (+$8,795 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $74 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,991, the opportunity cost of earning $2,333/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.12 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,540, position total $-7,942 (+$8,770 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $28.50 | 18 Sep | 9d | 7.6% | 72%hist 83% | 59%hist 44% | +6pp | $1,080 | $3,600 | — | $9,370 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $28.50 7.6% OTM over spot $26.49 18 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.79 mid) = $1,080 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28.50) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $29.30) 78% EV / mo +$226 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,980/mo median; plan ~$1,346/mo after 68% keep · $3,612 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.3], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,456 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $32 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.99/sh now → $1.41 mid-life (likely $1.64–$2.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,368 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $29 (overshoots $0.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28.50 is $6 below CC-SS $34.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $29.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,713 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,686 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $28.50): -$9,370 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $36): +$28 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,368 (+$7,344 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $74 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,442, the opportunity cost of earning $3,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.12 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,036, position total $-9,430 (+$7,282 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 24 × $27.50 | 18 Sep | 9d | 3.8% | 63%hist 65% | 78%hist 64% | +11pp | $2,112 | $7,040 | +$3,440 | $14,222 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $27.50 3.8% OTM over spot $26.49 18 Sep 2026 (9d, $1.10 mid) = $2,112 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,040/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $28.61) 73% EV / mo +$222 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 79% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,685/mo median; plan ~$2,505/mo after 68% keep · $4,285 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-1.7], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,084 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $32 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.88/sh now → $1.33 mid-life (likely $1.71–$2.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.88/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,855 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $28 (overshoots $0.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $7 below CC-SS $34.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.88 collected) or spot ≥ $28.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,713 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,686 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $27.50): -$14,222 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $36): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,244 (+$2,469 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $74 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,318, the opportunity cost of earning $7,040/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.12 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,776, position total $-14,194 (+$2,518 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.854 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$16,686 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $74
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $28 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.23 | 10/25 | $3,450 | $3,562 | 79% | 83% | +$1,090 | -$6,076 | 110.0% | $-6,042 (vs do-nothing $-6,116) |
| $28.50 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.60 | 18/25 | $3,600 | $3,652 | 72% | 78% | +$226 | -$9,370 | 169.6% | $-9,368 (vs do-nothing $-9,442) |
| $29 | 16d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.93 | 20/25 | $3,488 | $3,525 | 72% | 78% | +$544 | -$8,751 | 158.4% | $-8,757 (vs do-nothing $-8,831) |
| $27.50 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.35 | 7/25 | $3,675 | $3,810 | 72% | 79% | +$987 | -$4,519 | 81.8% | $-4,473 (vs do-nothing $-4,547) |
| $29 | 23d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.20 | 23/25 | $3,600 | $3,615 | 70% | 77% | +$328 | -$9,443 | 170.9% | $-9,461 (vs do-nothing $-9,535) |
| $28 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.71 | 15/25 | $3,550 | $3,625 | 68% | 76% | +$78 | -$8,393 | 151.9% | $-8,380 (vs do-nothing $-8,453) |
| $28 | 16d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.22 | 16/25 | $3,660 | $3,728 | 65% | 74% | +$470 | -$8,137 | 147.3% | $-8,127 (vs do-nothing $-8,201) |
| $28 | 23d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.52 | 18/25 | $3,569 | $3,621 | 64% | 74% | +$368 | -$8,614 | 155.9% | $-8,612 (vs do-nothing $-8,686) |
| $27.50 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.88 | 12/25 | $3,520 | $3,618 | 63% | 73% | +$111 | -$7,111 | 128.7% | $-7,085 (vs do-nothing $-7,159) |
| $27 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.45 | 6/25 | $4,050 | $4,192 | 62% | 74% | +$426 | -$4,113 | 74.5% | $-4,063 (vs do-nothing $-4,137) |
| $27 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.10 | 10/25 | $3,667 | $3,779 | 58% | 71% | +$205 | -$6,206 | 112.3% | $-6,172 (vs do-nothing $-6,246) |
| $27 | 23d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.90 | 14/25 | $3,470 | $3,552 | 58% | 71% | +$281 | -$7,568 | 137.0% | $-7,550 (vs do-nothing $-7,624) |
| $27 | 16d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.59 | 12/25 | $3,578 | $3,675 | 58% | 71% | +$371 | -$6,859 | 124.1% | $-6,833 (vs do-nothing $-6,907) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26.50 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.32 | 8/25 | $3,520 | $3,648 | 53% | 68% | +$171 | -$5,189 | 93.9% | $-5,147 (vs do-nothing $-5,221) |
| $26.50 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.64 | 4/25 | $3,840 | $3,998 | 52% | 69% | +$188 | -$2,866 | 51.9% | $-2,808 (vs do-nothing $-2,882) |
| $26 | 23d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.37 | 12/25 | $3,710 | $3,807 | 51% | 68% | +$177 | -$7,123 | 128.9% | $-7,097 (vs do-nothing $-7,171) |
| $26 | 16d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.96 | 10/25 | $3,675 | $3,788 | 50% | 67% | +$144 | -$6,346 | 114.9% | $-6,312 (vs do-nothing $-6,386) |
| $26 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.53 | 7/25 | $3,570 | $3,705 | 47% | 66% | +$57 | -$4,743 | 85.8% | $-4,697 (vs do-nothing $-4,771) |
| $26 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.95 | 3/25 | $4,275 | $4,440 | 40% | 68% | +$314 | -$2,207 | 39.9% | $-2,145 (vs do-nothing $-2,219) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.