25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $35.36 (banked floor $33.18) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $8,571/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $732/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-21,025 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $30C 11 Sep 2026 | U10001299 | $0.13 | $1,258 | 2026-09-08 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 7d | 19 × $27 | 70% | $4,316 | $-164 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $30 | 18 Sep | 7d | 17.5% | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 13% | +1pp | $325 | $1,393 | -$2,923 | $13,064 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $30 17.5% OTM over spot $25.54 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid) = $325 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,393/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $30.16) 92% EV / mo +$591 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $928/mo median; plan ~$631/mo after 68% keep · $3,892 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,902 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $33 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.82/sh now → $1.29 mid-life (likely $1.05–$1.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 283 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $31 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $5 below CC-SS $35.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $30.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,809 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $30): -$13,064 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,280 (+$7,745 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,505 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,775, the opportunity cost of earning $1,393/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.07 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,850, position total $-12,791 (+$8,234 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 23 × $28 | 18 Sep | 7d | 9.6% | 80%hist 83% | 42%hist 39% | +3pp | $667 | $2,859 | -$1,457 | $16,251 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $28 9.6% OTM over spot $25.54 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.40 mid) = $667 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,859/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $28.39) 83% EV / mo +$274 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,542/mo median; plan ~$1,048/mo after 68% keep · $5,302 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.2], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,987 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $31 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.63/sh now → $1.15 mid-life (likely $1.22–$1.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 953 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $29 (overshoots $0.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $7 below CC-SS $35.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $28.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,809 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $28): -$16,251 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $33): -$423 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,890 (+$4,135 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,505 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,385, the opportunity cost of earning $2,859/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.07 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,294, position total $-16,401 (+$4,624 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $27 | 18 Sep | 7d | 5.7% | 70%hist 83% | 62%hist 59% | +4pp | $1,007 | $4,316 | — | $14,869 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $27 5.7% OTM over spot $25.54 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.66 mid) = $1,007 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,316/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $27.66) 77% EV / mo +$490 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,954/mo median; plan ~$1,329/mo after 68% keep · $6,625 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 47% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,060 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $31 @ 82% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.54/sh now → $1.09 mid-life (likely $1.30–$1.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,411 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $28 (overshoots $0.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $8 below CC-SS $35.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.53 collected) or spot ≥ $27.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,809 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $27): -$14,869 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $33): -$1,269 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,354 (+$4,671 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,505 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,849, the opportunity cost of earning $4,316/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.07 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,426, position total $-15,865 (+$5,160 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 23 × $26 | 18 Sep | 7d | 1.8% | 58%hist 70% | 87%hist 79% | +10pp | $2,047 | $8,773 | +$4,457 | $19,471 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $26 1.8% OTM over spot $25.54 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $1.03 mid) = $2,047 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,773/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $27.03) 71% EV / mo +$864 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,841/mo median; plan ~$1,932/mo after 68% keep · $10,079 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.0], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$308 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $33 @ 89% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.45/sh now → $1.02 mid-life (likely $1.38–$2.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.89/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,044 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $27 (overshoots $0.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $9 below CC-SS $35.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.89 collected) or spot ≥ $27.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,809 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $26): -$19,471 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $33): -$423 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,110 (+$915 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,505 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,605, the opportunity cost of earning $8,773/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $34.07 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,514, position total $-19,621 (+$1,404 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.848 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,809 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,505
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.53 | 19/25 | $4,316 | $4,521 | 70% | 77% | +$490 | -$14,869 | 269.1% | $-16,354 (vs do-nothing $-10,849) |
| $27.50 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.87 | 23/25 | $4,288 | $4,356 | 70% | 77% | +$734 | -$16,067 | 290.8% | $-16,706 (vs do-nothing $-11,201) |
| $27 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.03 | 20/25 | $4,414 | $4,586 | 66% | 75% | +$742 | -$14,651 | 265.2% | $-15,925 (vs do-nothing $-10,420) |
| $26.50 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.69 | 15/25 | $4,436 | $4,779 | 65% | 74% | +$461 | -$12,248 | 221.7% | $-14,580 (vs do-nothing $-9,075) |
| $27 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.42 | 22/25 | $4,463 | $4,566 | 64% | 74% | +$667 | -$15,258 | 276.2% | $-16,109 (vs do-nothing $-10,604) |
| $26.50 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.21 | 17/25 | $4,408 | $4,682 | 62% | 73% | +$706 | -$12,998 | 235.2% | $-14,906 (vs do-nothing $-9,401) |
| $26 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.89 | 12/25 | $4,577 | $5,023 | 58% | 71% | +$451 | -$10,159 | 183.9% | $-13,125 (vs do-nothing $-7,620) |
| $26 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.92 | 21/25 | $4,320 | $4,457 | 58% | 71% | +$315 | -$15,615 | 282.6% | $-16,677 (vs do-nothing $-11,172) |
| $26 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.41 | 15/25 | $4,532 | $4,875 | 58% | 71% | +$668 | -$11,918 | 215.7% | $-14,250 (vs do-nothing $-8,745) |
| $26 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.82 | 17/25 | $4,420 | $4,694 | 58% | 71% | +$615 | -$12,811 | 231.9% | $-14,719 (vs do-nothing $-9,214) |
| $25.50 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.64 | 13/25 | $4,569 | $4,980 | 53% | 69% | +$623 | -$10,680 | 193.3% | $-13,435 (vs do-nothing $-7,930) |
| $25.50 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.12 | 9/25 | $4,320 | $4,869 | 52% | 68% | +$365 | -$7,862 | 142.3% | $-11,463 (vs do-nothing $-5,958) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.