125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $35.19 (banked floor $34.65) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $48,409/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $3,834/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-122,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 4d | 98 × $26 | 82% | $24,255 | $11,990 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 11d | 107 × $25.50 | 71% | $24,221 | $-2,333 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $27.50 | 18 Sep | 4d | 16.0% | 91%hist 96% | 17%hist 14% | +5pp | $1,500 | $11,250 | -$13,005 | $94,662 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $27.50 16.0% OTM over spot $23.71 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.23 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 4d cycle → $11,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $27.73) 93% EV / mo +$5,222 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,069/mo median; plan ~$4,807/mo after 68% keep · $34,303 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-4.0], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,933 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $33 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.52/sh now → $1.07 mid-life (likely $0.98–$1.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 273 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $28 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $8 below CC-SS $35.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $27.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-122,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,423 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $27.50): -$94,662 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-97,239 (+$24,761 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-65,614 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,625, the opportunity cost of earning $11,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$77,750, position total $-94,398 (+$27,602 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 107 × $26.50 | 18 Sep | 4d | 11.8% | 86%hist 86% | 30%hist 26% | +6pp | $2,140 | $16,050 | -$8,205 | $90,875 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 107 × $26.50 11.8% OTM over spot $23.71 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.30 mid) = $2,140 credit for the 4d cycle → $16,050/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $26.80) 88% EV / mo +$5,143 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,986/mo median; plan ~$6,110/mo after 68% keep · $44,750 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.8], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,729 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $32 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 107 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.44/sh now → $1.02 mid-life (likely $1.01–$1.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 573 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $27 (overshoots $0.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $9 below CC-SS $35.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $26.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-122,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,423 − CC assignment net of premium (107 × $26.50): -$90,875 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (18 × $30): -$9,077 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-102,529 (+$19,471 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-65,614 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,915, the opportunity cost of earning $16,050/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$76,398, position total $-99,688 (+$22,312 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 98 × $26 | 18 Sep | 4d | 9.7% | 82%hist 86% | 38%hist 30% | +11pp | $3,234 | $24,255 | — | $86,857 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 98 × $26 9.7% OTM over spot $23.71 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.39 mid) = $3,234 credit for the 4d cycle → $24,255/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $26.39) 85% EV / mo +$9,937 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $12,792/mo median; plan ~$8,699/mo after 68% keep · $58,403 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-4.0], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,438 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $31 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 98 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.40/sh now → $0.99 mid-life (likely $1.02–$1.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 711 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $27 (overshoots $0.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $9 below CC-SS $35.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $26.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-122,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,423 − CC assignment net of premium (98 × $26): -$86,857 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (27 × $30): -$13,616 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-103,050 (+$18,950 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-65,614 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,436, the opportunity cost of earning $24,255/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$73,598, position total $-100,209 (+$21,791 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 116 × $25 | 18 Sep | 4d | 5.4% | 71%hist 84% | 61%hist 59% | +16pp | $6,496 | $48,720 | +$24,465 | $111,743 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 116 × $25 5.4% OTM over spot $23.71 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.62 mid) = $6,496 credit for the 4d cycle → $48,720/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $25.62) 78% EV / mo +$14,955 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +16pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $19,014/mo median; plan ~$12,930/mo after 68% keep · $75,692 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-3.7], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,295 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $31 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 116 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.32/sh now → $0.93 mid-life (likely $1.10–$1.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,264 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $26 (overshoots $0.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $10 below CC-SS $35.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $25.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-122,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,423 − CC assignment net of premium (116 × $25): -$111,743 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $30): -$4,539 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-118,858 (+$3,142 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-65,614 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-53,244, the opportunity cost of earning $48,720/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$96,048, position total $-116,017 (+$5,983 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 120 × $27 | 25 Sep | 11d | 13.9% | 82%hist 86% | 38%hist 30% | +6pp | $5,880 | $16,036 | -$8,185 | $92,436 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 120 × $27 13.9% OTM over spot $23.71 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $0.53 mid) = $5,880 credit for the 11d cycle → $16,036/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $27.53) 85% EV / mo +$6,579 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,210/mo median; plan ~$5,583/mo after 68% keep · $49,528 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.5-4.7], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,859 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $30 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 120 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.09/sh now → $1.48 mid-life (likely $1.47–$2.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 917 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $28 (overshoots $0.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $8 below CC-SS $35.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $27.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-122,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,423 − CC assignment net of premium (120 × $27): -$92,436 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $30): -$2,521 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-97,534 (+$24,466 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-65,614 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,920, the opportunity cost of earning $16,036/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$76,200, position total $-94,693 (+$27,307 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 107 × $25.50 | 25 Sep | 11d | 7.5% | 71%hist 84% | 61%hist 59% | +8pp | $8,881 | $24,221 | — | $94,834 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 107 × $25.50 7.5% OTM over spot $23.71 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $0.91 mid) = $8,881 credit for the 11d cycle → $24,221/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $26.41) 78% EV / mo +$7,201 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,804/mo median; plan ~$6,666/mo after 68% keep · $57,706 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.2-4.4], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 51% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,563 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $31 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 107 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.91/sh now → $1.35 mid-life (likely $1.58–$2.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,536 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $26 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $10 below CC-SS $35.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $26.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-122,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,423 − CC assignment net of premium (107 × $25.50): -$94,834 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (18 × $30): -$9,077 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-106,488 (+$15,512 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-65,614 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-40,874, the opportunity cost of earning $24,221/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$80,357, position total $-103,647 (+$18,353 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 109 × $23.50 | 25 Sep | 11d | -0.9% | 51%hist 70% | 100%hist 90% | · | $17,767 | $48,455 | +$24,235 | $109,687 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 109 × $23.50 0.9% ITM over spot $23.71 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $1.73 mid) = $17,767 credit for the 11d cycle → $48,455/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23.50) 51% Breach risk 49% POP (stays ≤ $25.23) 68% EV / mo +$8,722 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$4,827 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $30 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 109 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.68/sh now → $1.19 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $23.50 is $12 below CC-SS $35.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.63 collected) or spot ≥ $25.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-122,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$119,423 − CC assignment net of premium (109 × $23.50): -$109,687 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (16 × $30): -$8,069 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-120,332 (+$1,668 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-65,614 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-54,718, the opportunity cost of earning $48,455/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$94,939, position total $-117,491 (+$4,509 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.832 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$119,423 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-65,614
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.33 | 98/125 | $24,255 | $24,930 | 82% | 85% | +$9,937 | -$86,857 | 314.4% | $-103,050 (vs do-nothing $-37,436) |
| $25.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.43 | 76/125 | $24,510 | $25,735 | 77% | 81% | +$8,746 | -$70,399 | 254.8% | $-97,686 (vs do-nothing $-32,072) |
| $25.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.83 | 107/125 | $24,221 | $24,671 | 71% | 78% | +$7,201 | -$94,834 | 343.3% | $-106,488 (vs do-nothing $-40,874) |
| $25 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.56 | 58/125 | $24,360 | $26,035 | 71% | 78% | +$7,477 | -$55,871 | 202.2% | $-92,236 (vs do-nothing $-26,622) |
| $25.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.17 | 125/125 | $24,375 | $24,375 | 68% | 76% | +$6,019 | -$106,537 | 385.7% | $-109,114 (vs do-nothing $-43,500) |
| $25 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.99 | 90/125 | $24,300 | $25,175 | 66% | 76% | +$6,451 | -$82,827 | 299.8% | $-103,054 (vs do-nothing $-37,440) |
| $25 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.33 | 110/125 | $24,383 | $24,758 | 64% | 74% | +$5,359 | -$97,493 | 352.9% | $-107,634 (vs do-nothing $-42,020) |
| $24.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.73 | 45/125 | $24,638 | $26,638 | 64% | 74% | +$6,534 | -$44,833 | 162.3% | $-87,754 (vs do-nothing $-22,140) |
| $25 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.63 | 124/125 | $24,254 | $24,279 | 64% | 74% | +$5,506 | -$106,181 | 384.4% | $-109,262 (vs do-nothing $-43,648) |
| $24.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.17 | 76/125 | $24,251 | $25,476 | 61% | 73% | +$5,615 | -$72,375 | 262.0% | $-99,662 (vs do-nothing $-34,048) |
| $24.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.53 | 95/125 | $24,225 | $24,975 | 60% | 73% | +$4,947 | -$87,048 | 315.1% | $-104,754 (vs do-nothing $-39,140) |
| $24 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.93 | 35/125 | $24,412 | $26,662 | 57% | 71% | +$5,318 | -$35,920 | 130.0% | $-83,884 (vs do-nothing $-18,270) |
| $24 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.04 | 99/125 | $24,235 | $24,885 | 57% | 71% | +$4,615 | -$90,615 | 328.0% | $-106,303 (vs do-nothing $-40,689) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.74 | 84/125 | $24,360 | $25,385 | 56% | 71% | +$4,450 | -$79,405 | 287.4% | $-102,658 (vs do-nothing $-37,044) |
| $24 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.39 | 64/125 | $24,262 | $25,787 | 56% | 71% | +$5,034 | -$62,739 | 227.1% | $-96,078 (vs do-nothing $-30,464) |
| $23.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.97 | 74/125 | $24,297 | $25,572 | 52% | 69% | +$3,908 | -$71,950 | 260.5% | $-100,246 (vs do-nothing $-34,632) |
| $23.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.63 | 55/125 | $24,450 | $26,200 | 51% | 68% | +$4,401 | -$55,346 | 200.3% | $-93,224 (vs do-nothing $-27,610) |
| $23.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.18 | 28/125 | $24,780 | $27,205 | 49% | 68% | +$4,511 | -$29,436 | 106.6% | $-80,930 (vs do-nothing $-15,316) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.