125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $34.81 (banked floor $34.27) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $35,735/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $3,727/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-124,187 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 3d | 72 × $25 | 80% | $18,000 | $13,010 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 10d | 120 × $25.50 | 77% | $18,000 | $2,119 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $27.50 | 18 Sep | 3d | 19.2% | 95%hist 96% | 10%hist 3% | +4pp | $625 | $6,250 | -$11,750 | $90,781 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $27.50 19.2% OTM over spot $23.07 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $625 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $27.57) 96% EV / mo +$3,089 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,347/mo median; plan ~$2,956/mo after 68% keep · $19,185 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.5], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,763 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $32 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.18/sh now → $0.83 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $7 below CC-SS $34.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $27.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-124,187 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$121,388 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $27.50): -$90,781 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-93,581 (+$30,607 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-50,206 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-43,375, the opportunity cost of earning $6,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$78,750, position total $-91,499 (+$32,688 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 118 × $26 | 18 Sep | 3d | 12.7% | 89%hist 86% | 23%hist 26% | +4pp | $1,180 | $11,800 | -$6,200 | $102,807 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 118 × $26 12.7% OTM over spot $23.07 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.34 mid) = $1,180 credit for the 3d cycle → $11,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $26.34) 91% EV / mo +$1,825 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,682/mo median; plan ~$4,544/mo after 68% keep · $31,144 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.2], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,780 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $31 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 118 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.07/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.69–$1.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 224 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $27 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $9 below CC-SS $34.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $26.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-124,187 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$121,388 − CC assignment net of premium (118 × $26): -$102,807 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $31): -$2,655 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-108,262 (+$15,926 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-50,206 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-58,056, the opportunity cost of earning $11,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$91,450, position total $-106,180 (+$18,007 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 72 × $25 | 18 Sep | 3d | 8.4% | 80%hist 86% | 40%hist 39% | +7pp | $1,800 | $18,000 | — | $68,850 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 72 × $25 8.4% OTM over spot $23.07 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.28 mid) = $1,800 credit for the 3d cycle → $18,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $25.28) 83% EV / mo +$4,655 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,759/mo median; plan ~$5,956/mo after 68% keep · $43,582 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.6], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,335 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $31 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 72 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.01/sh now → $0.71 mid-life (likely $0.70–$1.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 567 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $26 (overshoots $0.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $10 below CC-SS $34.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $25.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-124,187 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$121,388 − CC assignment net of premium (72 × $25): -$68,850 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (53 × $31): -$20,100 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-91,750 (+$32,438 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-50,206 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-41,544, the opportunity cost of earning $18,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$61,920, position total $-89,668 (+$34,519 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 106 × $24.50 | 18 Sep | 3d | 6.2% | 75%hist 84% | 52%hist 44% | +14pp | $3,604 | $36,040 | +$18,040 | $105,708 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 106 × $24.50 6.2% OTM over spot $23.07 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.38 mid) = $3,604 credit for the 3d cycle → $36,040/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $24.88) 79% EV / mo +$7,304 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $14,661/mo median; plan ~$9,969/mo after 68% keep · $71,318 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-4.1], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,716 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $30 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 106 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.98/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.75–$1.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 819 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $25 (overshoots $0.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24.50 is $10 below CC-SS $34.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.34 collected) or spot ≥ $24.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-124,187 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$121,388 − CC assignment net of premium (106 × $24.50): -$105,708 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (19 × $31): -$7,206 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-115,714 (+$8,474 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-50,206 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-65,508, the opportunity cost of earning $36,040/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$95,506, position total $-113,632 (+$10,555 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 101 × $26 | 25 Sep | 10d | 12.7% | 81%hist 86% | 40%hist 39% | +7pp | $3,939 | $11,817 | -$6,183 | $85,067 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 101 × $26 12.7% OTM over spot $23.07 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.47 mid) = $3,939 credit for the 10d cycle → $11,817/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $26.46) 84% EV / mo +$2,838 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,608/mo median; plan ~$3,814/mo after 68% keep · $37,233 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.3-5.0], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,365 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $29 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 101 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.72/sh now → $1.22 mid-life (likely $1.24–$1.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 873 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $27 (overshoots $0.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $9 below CC-SS $34.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $26.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-124,187 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$121,388 − CC assignment net of premium (101 × $26): -$85,067 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (24 × $31): -$9,102 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-96,969 (+$27,219 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-50,206 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-46,763, the opportunity cost of earning $11,817/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$75,346, position total $-94,887 (+$29,300 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 120 × $25.50 | 25 Sep | 10d | 10.5% | 77%hist 84% | 48%hist 39% | +10pp | $6,000 | $18,000 | — | $105,749 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 120 × $25.50 10.5% OTM over spot $23.07 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.57 mid) = $6,000 credit for the 10d cycle → $18,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $26.07) 81% EV / mo +$4,411 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,994/mo median; plan ~$5,436/mo after 68% keep · $45,445 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.3-4.7], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,172 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $29 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 120 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.67/sh now → $1.18 mid-life (likely $1.26–$1.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,076 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $26 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $9 below CC-SS $34.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $26.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-124,187 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$121,388 − CC assignment net of premium (120 × $25.50): -$105,749 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $31): -$1,896 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-110,446 (+$13,742 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-50,206 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-60,240, the opportunity cost of earning $18,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$94,200, position total $-108,364 (+$15,823 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 112 × $23.50 | 25 Sep | 10d | 1.9% | 58%hist 70% | 89%hist 79% | +11pp | $11,984 | $35,952 | +$17,952 | $114,715 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 112 × $23.50 1.9% OTM over spot $23.07 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $1.16 mid) = $11,984 credit for the 10d cycle → $35,952/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23.50) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $24.66) 70% EV / mo +$4,265 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,660/mo median; plan ~$7,249/mo after 68% keep · $57,409 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.4-4.3], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 72% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$367 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $29 @ 93% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 112 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.47/sh now → $1.04 mid-life (likely $1.43–$1.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,167 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $24 (overshoots $0.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $23.50 is $11 below CC-SS $34.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.07 collected) or spot ≥ $24.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-124,187 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$121,388 − CC assignment net of premium (112 × $23.50): -$114,715 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $31): -$4,930 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-122,446 (+$1,742 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-50,206 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-72,240, the opportunity cost of earning $35,952/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$103,936, position total $-120,364 (+$3,823 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.827 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$121,388 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-50,206
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.25 | 72/125 | $18,000 | $18,187 | 80% | 83% | +$4,655 | -$68,850 | 249.2% | $-91,750 (vs do-nothing $-41,544) |
| $25.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.50 | 120/125 | $18,000 | $18,018 | 77% | 81% | +$4,411 | -$105,749 | 382.8% | $-110,446 (vs do-nothing $-60,240) |
| $24.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.34 | 53/125 | $18,020 | $18,274 | 75% | 79% | +$3,652 | -$52,854 | 191.3% | $-82,960 (vs do-nothing $-32,754) |
| $25.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.81 | 125/125 | $17,868 | $17,868 | 73% | 79% | +$3,880 | -$106,281 | 384.7% | $-109,081 (vs do-nothing $-58,875) |
| $25 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.62 | 97/125 | $18,042 | $18,141 | 73% | 79% | +$4,154 | -$89,167 | 322.8% | $-102,586 (vs do-nothing $-52,380) |
| $25 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.94 | 108/125 | $17,915 | $17,975 | 70% | 77% | +$3,433 | -$95,822 | 346.9% | $-105,070 (vs do-nothing $-54,864) |
| $24.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.74 | 81/125 | $17,982 | $18,137 | 69% | 76% | +$3,293 | -$77,537 | 280.7% | $-97,024 (vs do-nothing $-46,818) |
| $25 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.18 | 122/125 | $17,995 | $18,006 | 68% | 76% | +$2,882 | -$105,316 | 381.2% | $-109,254 (vs do-nothing $-59,048) |
| $24 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.45 | 40/125 | $18,000 | $18,300 | 68% | 75% | +$2,359 | -$41,450 | 150.0% | $-76,486 (vs do-nothing $-26,280) |
| $24.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.10 | 93/125 | $18,053 | $18,166 | 66% | 75% | +$3,169 | -$85,676 | 310.1% | $-100,612 (vs do-nothing $-50,406) |
| $24 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.89 | 67/125 | $17,889 | $18,094 | 63% | 73% | +$2,550 | -$66,480 | 240.7% | $-91,277 (vs do-nothing $-41,071) |
| $24 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.20 | 85/125 | $18,000 | $18,141 | 62% | 72% | +$1,836 | -$81,706 | 295.8% | $-99,676 (vs do-nothing $-49,470) |
| $24 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.51 | 95/125 | $17,931 | $18,037 | 61% | 72% | +$2,227 | -$88,373 | 319.9% | $-102,551 (vs do-nothing $-52,345) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.61 | 30/125 | $18,300 | $18,635 | 60% | 70% | +$1,676 | -$32,107 | 116.2% | $-70,936 (vs do-nothing $-20,730) |
| $23.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.07 | 56/125 | $17,976 | $18,220 | 58% | 70% | +$2,132 | -$57,358 | 207.6% | $-86,326 (vs do-nothing $-36,120) |
| $23.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.45 | 70/125 | $17,912 | $18,106 | 58% | 70% | +$2,174 | -$69,037 | 249.9% | $-92,696 (vs do-nothing $-42,490) |
| $23 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.92 | 75/125 | $18,000 | $18,176 | 54% | 69% | +$1,643 | -$74,193 | 268.6% | $-95,956 (vs do-nothing $-45,750) |
| $23 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.69 | 60/125 | $17,894 | $18,124 | 53% | 68% | +$2,034 | -$60,735 | 219.9% | $-88,186 (vs do-nothing $-37,980) |
| $23 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.28 | 47/125 | $18,048 | $18,323 | 52% | 67% | +$1,697 | -$49,503 | 179.2% | $-81,884 (vs do-nothing $-31,678) |
| $23 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.81 | 23/125 | $18,630 | $18,990 | 50% | 68% | +$3,641 | -$25,306 | 91.6% | $-66,789 (vs do-nothing $-16,583) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.