125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $34.97 (banked floor $34.42) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $36,328/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $3,887/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-131,063 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 2d | 111 × $24.50 | 84% | $18,315 | $6,645 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 9d | 116 × $24.50 | 74% | $18,173 | $-1,919 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $27.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 22.0% | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 14% | +3pp | $1,375 | $4,583 | -$13,732 | $91,951 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $27.50 22.0% OTM over spot $22.55 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.25 mid) = $1,375 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,583/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $27.75) 92% EV / mo +$909 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,000/mo median; plan ~$2,040/mo after 68% keep · $16,779 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.4-4.3], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$17,650 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $30 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.15/sh now → $1.52 mid-life (likely $1.32–$2.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 308 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $28 (overshoots $0.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $7 below CC-SS $34.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $27.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-131,063 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$127,109 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $27.50): -$91,951 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-95,904 (+$35,159 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-53,029 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,875, the opportunity cost of earning $4,583/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$78,250, position total $-93,424 (+$37,638 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 73 × $24.50 | 18 Sep | 2d | 8.6% | 84%hist 86% | 33%hist 30% | +4pp | $803 | $12,045 | -$6,270 | $75,599 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 73 × $24.50 8.6% OTM over spot $22.55 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.18 mid) = $803 credit for the 2d cycle → $12,045/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $24.68) 86% EV / mo $-367 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,605/mo median; plan ~$4,492/mo after 68% keep · $35,473 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.9], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,838 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $29 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 73 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.09/sh now → $0.77 mid-life (likely $0.92–$1.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 529 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $25 (overshoots $0.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24.50 is $10 below CC-SS $34.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $24.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-131,063 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$127,109 − CC assignment net of premium (73 × $24.50): -$75,599 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (52 × $31): -$20,416 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-99,968 (+$31,095 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-53,029 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-46,939, the opportunity cost of earning $12,045/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$67,598, position total $-97,488 (+$33,574 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 111 × $24.50 | 18 Sep | 2d | 8.6% | 84%hist 86% | 33%hist 30% | +9pp | $1,221 | $18,315 | — | $114,952 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 111 × $24.50 8.6% OTM over spot $22.55 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.18 mid) = $1,221 credit for the 2d cycle → $18,315/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $24.68) 86% EV / mo $-559 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,744/mo median; plan ~$6,626/mo after 68% keep · $45,026 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.8], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,356 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $29 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 111 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.09/sh now → $0.77 mid-life (likely $0.84–$1.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 495 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $25 (overshoots $0.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24.50 is $10 below CC-SS $34.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $24.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-131,063 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$127,109 − CC assignment net of premium (111 × $24.50): -$114,952 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $31): -$5,496 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-124,402 (+$6,661 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-53,029 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-71,373, the opportunity cost of earning $18,315/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$102,786, position total $-121,922 (+$9,140 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 81 × $23.50 | 18 Sep | 2d | 4.2% | 70%hist 84% | 61%hist 59% | +13pp | $2,430 | $36,450 | +$18,135 | $90,445 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 81 × $23.50 4.2% OTM over spot $22.55 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.40 mid) = $2,430 credit for the 2d cycle → $36,450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23.50) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $23.89) 77% EV / mo +$1,723 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~10.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,512/mo median; plan ~$9,188/mo after 68% keep · $73,250 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.2-4.6], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,457 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $28 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 81 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.03/sh now → $0.73 mid-life (likely $0.89–$1.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,125 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $24 (overshoots $0.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $23.50 is $11 below CC-SS $34.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $23.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-131,063 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$127,109 − CC assignment net of premium (81 × $23.50): -$90,445 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (44 × $31): -$17,275 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-111,673 (+$19,390 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-53,029 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-58,644, the opportunity cost of earning $36,450/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$81,567, position total $-109,193 (+$21,870 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 125 × $27.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 22.0% | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 14% | +3pp | $1,375 | $4,583 | -$13,590 | $91,951 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 × $27.50 22.0% OTM over spot $22.55 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.25 mid) = $1,375 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,583/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $27.75) 92% EV / mo +$909 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,000/mo median; plan ~$2,040/mo after 68% keep · $16,779 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.4-4.3], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$17,650 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $30 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.15/sh now → $1.52 mid-life (likely $1.32–$2.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 308 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $28 (overshoots $0.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $7 below CC-SS $34.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $27.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-131,063 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$127,109 − CC assignment net of premium (125 × $27.50): -$91,951 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-95,904 (+$35,159 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-53,029 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,875, the opportunity cost of earning $4,583/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$78,250, position total $-93,424 (+$37,638 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 93 × $25 | 25 Sep | 9d | 10.9% | 78%hist 84% | 45%hist 39% | +5pp | $3,627 | $12,090 | -$6,083 | $89,057 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 93 × $25 10.9% OTM over spot $22.55 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.54 mid) = $3,627 credit for the 9d cycle → $12,090/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $25.55) 83% EV / mo +$2,052 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,580/mo median; plan ~$3,794/mo after 68% keep · $37,326 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.4-3.9], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,526 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $27 @ 78% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 93 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.85/sh now → $1.31 mid-life (likely $1.32–$2.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,011 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $26 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $10 below CC-SS $34.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $25.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-131,063 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$127,109 − CC assignment net of premium (93 × $25): -$89,057 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (32 × $31): -$12,563 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-105,574 (+$25,489 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-53,029 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-52,545, the opportunity cost of earning $12,090/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$78,864, position total $-103,094 (+$27,968 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 116 × $24.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 8.6% | 74%hist 84% | 54%hist 44% | +9pp | $5,452 | $18,173 | — | $115,954 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 116 × $24.50 8.6% OTM over spot $22.55 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.67 mid) = $5,452 credit for the 9d cycle → $18,173/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24.50) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $25.16) 80% EV / mo +$1,991 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,408/mo median; plan ~$5,037/mo after 68% keep · $48,413 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.3-4.6], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,229 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $28 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 116 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.79/sh now → $1.27 mid-life (likely $1.41–$2.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,217 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $25 (overshoots $0.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24.50 is $10 below CC-SS $34.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $25.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-131,063 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$127,109 − CC assignment net of premium (116 × $24.50): -$115,954 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $31): -$3,533 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-123,441 (+$7,622 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-53,029 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-70,412, the opportunity cost of earning $18,173/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$103,240, position total $-120,961 (+$10,102 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 114 × $23 | 25 Sep | 9d | 2.0% | 58%hist 70% | 88%hist 79% | +13pp | $10,944 | $36,480 | +$18,307 | $125,469 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 114 × $23 2.0% OTM over spot $22.55 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $1.25 mid) = $10,944 credit for the 9d cycle → $36,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $24.25) 72% EV / mo +$3,446 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,354/mo median; plan ~$7,041/mo after 68% keep · $66,261 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.6-5.1], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 71% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,116 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $28 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 114 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.62/sh now → $1.15 mid-life (likely $1.56–$2.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.96/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,121 simulated challenges: the $23 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $24 (overshoots $0.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $23 is $12 below CC-SS $34.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.96 collected) or spot ≥ $24.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $23)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-131,063 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$127,109 − CC assignment net of premium (114 × $23): -$125,469 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $31): -$4,319 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-133,741 ($-2,678 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-53,029 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-80,712, the opportunity cost of earning $36,480/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$112,974, position total $-131,261 ($-198 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.819 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$127,109 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-53,029
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.11 | 111/125 | $18,315 | $18,420 | 84% | 86% | $-559 | -$114,952 | 416.1% | $-124,402 (vs do-nothing $-71,373) |
| $24.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.47 | 116/125 | $18,173 | $18,241 | 74% | 80% | +$1,991 | -$115,954 | 419.7% | $-123,441 (vs do-nothing $-70,412) |
| $23.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.30 | 41/125 | $18,450 | $19,080 | 70% | 77% | +$872 | -$45,781 | 165.7% | $-82,713 (vs do-nothing $-29,684) |
| $24 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.57 | 96/125 | $18,240 | $18,458 | 70% | 77% | +$1,021 | -$99,802 | 361.3% | $-115,141 (vs do-nothing $-62,112) |
| $24.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.87 | 112/125 | $18,270 | $18,368 | 69% | 75% | +$76 | -$107,476 | 389.1% | $-116,533 (vs do-nothing $-63,504) |
| $24 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.02 | 95/125 | $18,169 | $18,394 | 66% | 73% | $-19 | -$94,488 | 342.0% | $-110,219 (vs do-nothing $-57,190) |
| $24 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.34 | 104/125 | $18,177 | $18,335 | 65% | 75% | +$3,496 | -$100,111 | 362.4% | $-112,309 (vs do-nothing $-59,280) |
| $23.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.55 | 100/125 | $18,333 | $18,521 | 64% | 73% | $-4,566 | -$109,161 | 395.2% | $-122,929 (vs do-nothing $-69,900) |
| $23.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.19 | 82/125 | $18,296 | $18,619 | 62% | 71% | $-107 | -$84,264 | 305.0% | $-105,099 (vs do-nothing $-52,070) |
| $23 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.55 | 23/125 | $18,975 | $19,740 | 61% | 72% | +$3,911 | -$26,257 | 95.0% | $-70,256 (vs do-nothing $-17,227) |
| $23 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.96 | 57/125 | $18,240 | $18,750 | 58% | 72% | +$1,723 | -$62,735 | 227.1% | $-93,385 (vs do-nothing $-40,356) |
| $23 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.69 | 83/125 | $18,296 | $18,611 | 58% | 69% | $-251 | -$85,291 | 308.7% | $-105,734 (vs do-nothing $-52,705) |
| $23 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.39 | 70/125 | $18,244 | $18,656 | 58% | 69% | $-72 | -$74,032 | 268.0% | $-99,579 (vs do-nothing $-46,550) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $22.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.60 | 61/125 | $18,300 | $18,780 | 54% | 67% | $-206 | -$66,283 | 239.9% | $-95,363 (vs do-nothing $-42,334) |
| $22.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.97 | 57/125 | $18,430 | $18,940 | 52% | 67% | $-2,252 | -$65,528 | 237.2% | $-96,178 (vs do-nothing $-43,149) |
| $22.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.51 | 24/125 | $18,360 | $19,118 | 51% | 66% | $-4,920 | -$28,695 | 103.9% | $-72,301 (vs do-nothing $-19,272) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.