FORTRESS FIGHT: GLXY @ $22.58

BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $34.38 | 125 contracts (12,500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GLXYBBC @ $22.58 UNDERWATER $17.13 (43.1% below BE SS)

125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $34.38 (banked floor $33.83) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $37.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $4.148/sh)

SP: $37.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $21.813/sh)

HP: $17.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.960/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$277,625	(ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500
Normal income ref	$30,500/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $3,781/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-124,188	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$15,250/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$30,500/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.9 mo to earn back $27,625

ML VELOCITY
9.1 mo to earn back $277,625

Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $34.38 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $30.5C (15d, $250/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$6,095

Hole (after banked)

$118,092

was $124,188 · 5% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$34.38 → $33.83

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 30 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist rising

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 45 · %B 20 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $33.86 (+50%) · daily UBB $26.92 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-20: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 95 contracts at $24.50 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 75%, breach 25%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($15,250/mo); it brings $15,319/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 118 × $23.50/8d for $30,532/mo, but breach risk rises to 35% (+11pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 125 × $27/8d (91% survival, $6,094/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $89,732 (325% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $40, recoverable in 2.9 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 95 contracts realizes $-94,858 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 25 Sep 2026 (8d) · sell 95 × $24.50, 75% survival, $15,319/mo (E[net] $-12,559/mo).
⚠ NEGATIVE E[net]: the expected cost of being challenged exceeds this premium, so this is the least-bad track rather than a good write. Consider a safer rung on the ladder below, or sitting the cycle out.
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	25 Sep 2026 · 8d	95 × $24.50	75%	$15,319	$-12,559

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $4,085 with probability 61%; on the 39% touch you roll, paying $14,879 to close and taking $0 back from the best priced door (net cash $14,879) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 25 Sep 2026 · 8d · E[net] $-12,559/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 95 × $24.50 (50% normal), 75% survival, breach 25%, $15,319/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $25.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 83% (breach 25% → 17%) for $5,228/mo less (34% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $25.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect GLXY to stay flat-to-down near term.

GLXY spot $22.58 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

125 × $27

25 Sep

19.6%

91%hist 96%

19%hist 14%

+4pp

$1,625

$6,094

-$9,225

$90,569

Sell 125 × $27 19.6% OTM over spot $22.58 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.24 mid)

= $1,625 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,094/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $27)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $27.24)

92%

EV / mo

+$1,987

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

50% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,850/mo

median; plan ~$2,618/mo after 68% keep · $23,477 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.1-4.7], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

10%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$21,264

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)

$27 @ 68% POP

57% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.59/sh now → $1.83 mid-life (likely $1.37–$2.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 312 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $28 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (125 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$27	9 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.05/sh	-$656 cycle +$969 [-$3,985…+$5,225] · 49% credit	68% surv 57%	-$73,488 NOT cap gain +$50,700
budget: banked $1,625 debit $656 (40% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$969 cash · rolled 125 ct earn ≈ $37,055/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$27	2 Oct 2026	11d left	-$0.37/sh	-$4,615 cycle -$2,990 [-$8,075…+$670] · 28% credit	66% surv 53%	-$81,762 NOT cap gain +$42,425

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,094/mo
vs 50% target ($15,250/mo)	-60%
vs normal income ($30,500/mo)	20% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,094/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $27 is $7 below CC-SS $34.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$90,569
… as % of IC ($27,625)	327.9%
… as % of ML ($277,625)	32.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.0 mo
Surgical close (125 ct)	$-125,562

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $27.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $26.73	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $27-27.24	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $27.24	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$27.00 (1.5σ)	$1,625	$-77,147	+$47,041	+$1,500
+2.5%	$27.67 (1.8σ)	$-6,812	$-78,649	+$45,539	-$6,937
+5%	$28.35 (2.0σ)	$-15,250	$-80,151	+$44,037	-$15,375
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (6.0σ)	$-157,250	$-105,427	+$18,761	-$42,250

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.38, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-124,188

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$121,199

− CC assignment net of premium (125 × $27): -$90,569

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-93,557 (+$30,630 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-51,307 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,250, the opportunity cost of earning $6,094/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $33.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$84,125, position total $-92,410 (+$31,777 vs today)

▸

33% normal ← lean

117 × $25.50

25 Sep

12.9%

83%hist 86%

35%hist 30%

+7pp

$2,691

$10,091

-$5,228

$101,152

Sell 117 × $25.50 12.9% OTM over spot $22.58 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.35 mid)

= $2,691 credit for the 8d cycle → $10,091/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $25.50)

83%

Breach risk

17%

POP (stays ≤ $25.84)

86%

EV / mo

+$1,014

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

50% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$5,089/mo

median; plan ~$3,461/mo after 68% keep · $33,482 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.5-5.5], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

22%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$16,846

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)

$26 @ 68% POP

57% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 117 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.36/sh now → $1.67 mid-life (likely $1.53–$2.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 672 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $26 (overshoots $0.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (117 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$26	9 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.06/sh	-$728 cycle +$1,963 [-$5,781…+$1,683] · 34% credit	68% surv 57%	-$87,898 NOT cap gain +$36,289
budget: banked $2,691 debit $728 (27% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,963 cash · rolled 117 ct earn ≈ $31,349/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$26	2 Oct 2026	11d left	-$0.34/sh	-$3,945 cycle -$1,254 [-$8,903…-$1,859] · 17% credit	66% surv 53%	-$95,431 NOT cap gain +$28,757

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$10,091/mo
vs 50% target ($15,250/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($30,500/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,107/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $25.50 is $9 below CC-SS $34.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$101,152
… as % of IC ($27,625)	366.2%
… as % of ML ($277,625)	36.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.3 mo
Surgical close (117 ct)	$-117,585

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $25.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $25.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $25-25.84	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $25.84	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$25.50 (1.0σ)	$2,691	$-91,485	+$32,702	+$2,574
+2.5%	$26.14 (1.2σ)	$-4,768	$-92,394	+$31,794	-$4,885
+5%	$26.78 (1.5σ)	$-12,227	$-93,302	+$30,885	-$12,344
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (6.0σ)	$-163,566	$-119,103	+$5,085	-$55,926

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.38, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-124,188

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$121,199

− CC assignment net of premium (117 × $25.50): -$101,152

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $30.50): -$3,092

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-107,233 (+$16,954 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-51,307 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-55,926, the opportunity cost of earning $10,091/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $33.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$95,121, position total $-106,086 (+$18,101 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

95 × $24.50

25 Sep

8.5%

75%hist 84%

52%hist 44%

+8pp

$4,085

$15,319

—

$89,732

Sell 95 × $24.50 8.5% OTM over spot $22.58 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.48 mid)

= $4,085 credit for the 8d cycle → $15,319/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $24.50)

75%

Breach risk

25%

POP (stays ≤ $24.98)

80%

EV / mo

+$2,398

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+8pp

52% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$6,470/mo

median; plan ~$4,399/mo after 68% keep · $40,786 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.4-4.8], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

39%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$10,794

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)

$26 @ 73% POP

65% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 95 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.21/sh now → $1.57 mid-life (likely $1.79–$2.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,176 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $25 (overshoots $0.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (95 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$24	2 Oct 2026	11d left	-$0.32/sh	-$3,008 cycle +$1,077 [-$8,391…-$3,722] · 8% credit	65% surv 53%	-$103,353 NOT cap gain +$20,835
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$26	9 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.42/sh	-$4,015 cycle +$70 [-$10,057…-$4,867] · 6% credit	73% surv 65%	-$89,769 NOT cap gain +$34,418
budget: banked $4,085 debit $4,015 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$70 cash · rolled 95 ct earn ≈ $18,107/mo while parked; 30 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$15,319/mo
vs 50% target ($15,250/mo)	+0%
vs normal income ($30,500/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$15,379/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $24.50 is $10 below CC-SS $34.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$89,732
… as % of IC ($27,625)	324.8%
… as % of ML ($277,625)	32.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.9 mo
Surgical close (95 ct)	$-94,858

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.43 collected) or spot ≥ $24.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $24.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $24-24.98	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $24.98	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$24.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,085	$-100,344	+$23,843	+$3,990
+2.5%	$25.11 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,734	$-99,870	+$24,318	-$1,829
+5%	$25.73 (1.1σ)	$-7,553	$-99,395	+$24,792	-$7,648
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (6.0σ)	$-140,410	$-116,187	+$8,001	-$53,010

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.38, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-124,188

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$121,199

− CC assignment net of premium (95 × $24.50): -$89,732

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (30 × $30.50): -$11,596

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-104,317 (+$19,870 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-51,307 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-53,010, the opportunity cost of earning $15,319/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $33.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$84,835, position total $-103,170 (+$21,017 vs today)

▸

100% normal

118 × $23.50

25 Sep

4.1%

65%hist 65%

74%hist 67%

+13pp

$8,142

$30,532

+$15,214

$120,189

Sell 118 × $23.50 4.1% OTM over spot $22.58 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.98 mid)

= $8,142 credit for the 8d cycle → $30,532/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $23.50)

65%

Breach risk

35%

POP (stays ≤ $24.48)

75%

EV / mo

+$3,078

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+13pp

56% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~5.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$10,120/mo

median; plan ~$6,882/mo after 68% keep · $59,436 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.6-4.8], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

59%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$9,154

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)

$26 @ 78% POP

73% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 118 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.07/sh now → $1.47 mid-life (likely $1.88–$2.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.69/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,763 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $24 (overshoots $0.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (118 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$24	2 Oct 2026	11d left	-$0.30/sh	-$3,501 cycle +$4,641 [-$11,442…-$6,261] · 6% credit	65% surv 53%	-$110,086 NOT cap gain +$14,101
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$26	9 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.64/sh	-$7,597 cycle +$545 [-$17,069…-$10,847] · 2% credit	78% surv 73%	-$89,317 NOT cap gain +$34,871
budget: banked $8,142 debit $7,597 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$545 cash · rolled 118 ct earn ≈ $16,165/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$30,532/mo
vs 50% target ($15,250/mo)	+100%
vs normal income ($30,500/mo)	100% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$30,546/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $23.50 is $11 below CC-SS $34.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$120,189
… as % of IC ($27,625)	435.1%
… as % of ML ($277,625)	43.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.9 mo
Surgical close (118 ct)	$-120,655

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.69 collected) or spot ≥ $24.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $23.27	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $23-24.48	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $24.48	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$23.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$8,142	$-106,585	+$17,602	+$8,024
+2.5%	$24.09 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,210	$-107,481	+$16,706	+$1,092
+5%	$24.68 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-5,723	$-108,377	+$15,810	-$5,841
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (6.0σ)	$-183,136	$-137,753	-$13,565	-$74,576

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.38, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-124,188

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$121,199

− CC assignment net of premium (118 × $23.50): -$120,189

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $30.50): -$2,706

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-125,883 ($-1,696 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-51,307 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-74,576, the opportunity cost of earning $30,532/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $33.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$114,106, position total $-124,736 ($-549 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GLXY are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (13 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 13 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.822 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$121,199 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-51,307

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$24.50	8d	25 Sep 2026	$0.43	95/125	$15,319	$15,379	75%	80%	+$2,398	-$89,732	324.8%	$-104,317 (vs do-nothing $-53,010)
$25	15d	2 Oct 2026	$0.65	118/125	$15,340	$15,354	75%	81%	+$3,003	-$102,961	372.7%	$-108,655 (vs do-nothing $-57,348)
$24.50	15d	2 Oct 2026	$0.68	113/125	$15,368	$15,392	71%	78%	+$916	-$103,909	376.1%	$-111,536 (vs do-nothing $-60,229)
$24	8d	25 Sep 2026	$0.41	100/125	$15,375	$15,425	70%	78%	$-2,485	-$99,655	360.7%	$-112,307 (vs do-nothing $-61,000)
$24	15d	2 Oct 2026	$0.89	86/125	$15,308	$15,386	67%	77%	+$1,907	-$81,575	295.3%	$-99,639 (vs do-nothing $-48,332)
$24	22d	9 Oct 2026	$1.10	102/125	$15,300	$15,346	65%	76%	+$797	-$94,610	342.5%	$-106,489 (vs do-nothing $-55,182)
$23.50	8d	25 Sep 2026	$0.69	59/125	$15,266	$15,398	65%	75%	+$1,539	-$60,094	217.5%	$-88,595 (vs do-nothing $-37,288)
$23.50	15d	2 Oct 2026	$1.06	72/125	$15,264	$15,370	62%	73%	+$1,662	-$70,672	255.8%	$-94,147 (vs do-nothing $-42,840)
$23	8d	25 Sep 2026	$0.83	49/125	$15,251	$15,403	58%	71%	+$546	-$51,673	187.1%	$-84,039 (vs do-nothing $-32,732)
$23	15d	2 Oct 2026	$1.18	65/125	$15,340	$15,460	58%	72%	+$540	-$66,271	239.9%	$-92,452 (vs do-nothing $-41,145)
$23	22d	9 Oct 2026	$1.45	78/125	$15,423	$15,517	58%	72%	+$291	-$77,419	280.2%	$-98,575 (vs do-nothing $-47,268)
$22.50	15d	2 Oct 2026	$1.30	59/125	$15,340	$15,472	53%	70%	$-743	-$62,395	225.9%	$-90,896 (vs do-nothing $-39,589)
$22.50	8d	25 Sep 2026	$0.99	42/125	$15,592	$15,758	51%	71%	$-472	-$45,719	165.5%	$-80,791 (vs do-nothing $-29,484)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-17 21:49