25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $35.20 (banked floor $32.45) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $7,768/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $765/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,900 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $26.5C 25 Sep 2026 | U10001299 | $0.16 | $1,600 | 2026-09-18 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 25 Sep 2026 · 7d | 24 × $25 | 72% | $3,909 | $1,004 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 25 × $32.50 | 16 Oct | 28d | 38.5% | 93%hist 96% | 16%hist 14% | +1pp | $300 | $321 | -$3,587 | $6,455 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $32.50 38.5% OTM over spot $23.47 16 Oct 2026 (28d, $0.24 mid) = $300 credit for the 28d cycle → $321/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $32.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $32.74) 93% EV / mo $-74 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $237/mo median; plan ~$161/mo after 68% keep · $1,169 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [1.0-3.4], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,326 Free roll-up none Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.31/sh now → $3.05 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $32.50 is $3 below CC-SS $35.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $32.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $32)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.20, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,432 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $32.50): -$6,455 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,923 (+$17,977 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,873 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,950, the opportunity cost of earning $321/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,050, position total $-6,354 (+$18,546 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 16 × $25 | 25 Sep | 7d | 6.5% | 72%hist 84% | 57%hist 44% | +8pp | $608 | $2,606 | -$1,303 | $15,715 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $25 6.5% OTM over spot $23.47 25 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.52 mid) = $608 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,606/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $25.52) 78% EV / mo $-85 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,102/mo median; plan ~$750/mo after 68% keep · $5,955 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.3-4.1], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$851 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $29 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.29/sh now → $0.91 mid-life (likely $1.05–$1.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,280 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $26 (overshoots $0.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $10 below CC-SS $35.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $25.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.20, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,432 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $25): -$15,715 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $31): -$3,746 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,929 (+$4,971 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,873 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,056, the opportunity cost of earning $2,606/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,536, position total $-19,360 (+$5,540 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 24 × $25 | 25 Sep | 7d | 6.5% | 72%hist 84% | 57%hist 44% | +14pp | $912 | $3,909 | — | $23,573 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $25 6.5% OTM over spot $23.47 25 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.52 mid) = $912 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,909/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $25.52) 78% EV / mo $-128 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,587/mo median; plan ~$1,079/mo after 68% keep · $7,525 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-4.3], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,277 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $29 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.29/sh now → $0.91 mid-life (likely $1.03–$1.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,315 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $26 (overshoots $0.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $10 below CC-SS $35.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $25.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.20, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,432 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $25): -$23,573 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $31): -$416 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,457 (+$443 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,873 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,584, the opportunity cost of earning $3,909/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,304, position total $-23,888 (+$1,012 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 21 × $23.50 | 25 Sep | 7d | 0.1% | 53%hist 70% | 99%hist 90% | +16pp | $1,848 | $7,920 | +$4,011 | $22,726 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $23.50 0.1% OTM over spot $23.47 25 Sep 2026 (7d, $1.01 mid) = $1,848 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,920/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23.50) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $24.52) 67% EV / mo $-284 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +16pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,155/mo median; plan ~$1,465/mo after 68% keep · $8,725 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.5], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 76% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$114 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $28 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.17/sh now → $0.83 mid-life (likely $1.17–$1.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.88/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,291 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $24 (overshoots $0.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $23.50 is $12 below CC-SS $35.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.88 collected) or spot ≥ $24.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.20, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,432 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $23.50): -$22,726 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $31): -$1,665 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,859 (+$41 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,873 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,986, the opportunity cost of earning $7,920/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,866, position total $-24,290 (+$610 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.833 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,432 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,873
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25 | 7d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.38 | 24/25 | $3,909 | $3,914 | 72% | 78% | $-128 | -$23,573 | 426.7% | $-24,457 (vs do-nothing $-13,584) |
| $25.50 | 14d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.77 | 24/25 | $3,960 | $3,966 | 72% | 78% | +$788 | -$21,437 | 388.0% | $-22,321 (vs do-nothing $-11,448) |
| $25 | 14d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.90 | 21/25 | $4,050 | $4,073 | 68% | 76% | +$811 | -$19,534 | 353.6% | $-21,667 (vs do-nothing $-10,794) |
| $25 | 21d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.19 | 23/25 | $3,910 | $3,921 | 66% | 75% | +$561 | -$20,728 | 375.2% | $-22,028 (vs do-nothing $-11,155) |
| $25 | 28d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.49 | 25/25 | $3,991 | $3,991 | 65% | 75% | +$714 | -$21,780 | 394.2% | $-22,248 (vs do-nothing $-11,375) |
| $24.50 | 14d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.06 | 18/25 | $4,089 | $4,129 | 63% | 73% | +$598 | -$17,356 | 314.1% | $-20,737 (vs do-nothing $-9,864) |
| $24 | 7d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.65 | 14/25 | $3,900 | $3,963 | 60% | 71% | $-291 | -$14,773 | 267.4% | $-19,819 (vs do-nothing $-8,946) |
| $24 | 14d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.23 | 15/25 | $3,954 | $4,011 | 59% | 71% | +$448 | -$14,958 | 270.7% | $-19,588 (vs do-nothing $-8,715) |
| $24 | 21d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.56 | 18/25 | $4,011 | $4,051 | 58% | 71% | +$489 | -$17,356 | 314.1% | $-20,737 (vs do-nothing $-9,864) |
| $23.50 | 14d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.45 | 13/25 | $4,039 | $4,108 | 54% | 69% | +$399 | -$13,328 | 241.2% | $-18,790 (vs do-nothing $-7,917) |
| $23.50 | 7d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.88 | 11/25 | $4,149 | $4,229 | 53% | 67% | $-149 | -$11,904 | 215.5% | $-18,199 (vs do-nothing $-7,326) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.