25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $35.08 (banked floor $32.33) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $10,500/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $685/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-20,150 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $32.5C 16 Oct 2026 | U10001299 | $0.34 | $3,431 | 2026-09-21 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 25 Sep 2026 · 4d | 22 × $27.50 | 77% | $5,280 | $1,060 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 2 Oct 2026 · 11d | 25 × $28 | 74% | $5,250 | $339 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $34 | 16 Oct | 25d | 32.5% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 25% | +3pp | $775 | $930 | -$4,350 | $1,931 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $34 32.5% OTM over spot $25.67 16 Oct 2026 (25d, $0.47 mid) = $775 credit for the 25d cycle → $930/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $34) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $34.47) 91% EV / mo +$265 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $552/mo median; plan ~$375/mo after 68% keep · $1,644 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-2.4], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,395 Free roll-up none Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 25); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.05/sh now → $2.87 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $34 is $1 below CC-SS $35.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $34.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $34)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,025 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $34): -$1,931 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,056 (+$18,094 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-256 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,800, the opportunity cost of earning $930/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-3,747 (+$16,403 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $28 | 25 Sep | 4d | 9.1% | 82%hist 86% | 36%hist 30% | +7pp | $468 | $3,510 | -$1,770 | $12,280 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $28 9.1% OTM over spot $25.67 25 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.36 mid) = $468 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,510/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $28.36) 86% EV / mo +$1,129 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 73% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,041/mo median; plan ~$1,388/mo after 68% keep · $4,058 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.3], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,505 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $33 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.55/sh now → $1.10 mid-life (likely $1.13–$1.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 677 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $29 (overshoots $0.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $7 below CC-SS $35.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $28.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,025 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $28): -$12,280 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $35): -$37 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,442 (+$7,708 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-256 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,186, the opportunity cost of earning $3,510/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,216, position total $-12,942 (+$7,208 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 22 × $27.50 | 25 Sep | 4d | 7.1% | 77%hist 84% | 47%hist 39% | +11pp | $704 | $5,280 | — | $15,977 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $27.50 7.1% OTM over spot $25.67 25 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.46 mid) = $704 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,280/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $27.96) 82% EV / mo +$1,089 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 81% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,708/mo median; plan ~$1,841/mo after 68% keep · $4,877 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.6], measured ONLY among the 81% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,640 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $33 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.51/sh now → $1.07 mid-life (likely $1.16–$1.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 948 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $28 (overshoots $0.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $8 below CC-SS $35.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $27.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,025 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $27.50): -$15,977 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $35): -$16 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,118 (+$4,032 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-256 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,862, the opportunity cost of earning $5,280/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,232, position total $-15,970 (+$4,180 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $26 | 25 Sep | 4d | 1.3% | 57%hist 68% | 89%hist 78% | +14pp | $1,425 | $10,688 | +$5,408 | $15,831 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $26 1.3% OTM over spot $25.67 25 Sep 2026 (4d, $1.00 mid) = $1,425 credit for the 4d cycle → $10,688/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $27.00) 72% EV / mo +$903 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 79% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,592/mo median; plan ~$2,443/mo after 68% keep · $6,850 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.2], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$430 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $34 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.38/sh now → $0.98 mid-life (likely $1.29–$2.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,940 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $27 (overshoots $0.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $9 below CC-SS $35.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $27.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,025 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $26): -$15,831 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $35): -$31 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,988 (+$4,162 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-256 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,732, the opportunity cost of earning $10,688/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,597, position total $-16,326 (+$3,824 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 24 × $29 | 2 Oct | 11d | 13.0% | 80%hist 86% | 41%hist 39% | +9pp | $1,320 | $3,600 | -$1,650 | $13,278 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $29 13.0% OTM over spot $25.67 2 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.64 mid) = $1,320 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $29.64) 84% EV / mo +$1,233 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,207/mo median; plan ~$1,501/mo after 68% keep · $4,807 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.9], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,360 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $33 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.17/sh now → $1.53 mid-life (likely $1.53–$2.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 949 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $30 (overshoots $0.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $6 below CC-SS $35.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $29.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,025 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $29): -$13,278 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $35): -$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,408 (+$6,742 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-256 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,152, the opportunity cost of earning $3,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,192, position total $-12,936 (+$7,214 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 25 × $28 | 2 Oct | 11d | 9.1% | 74%hist 84% | 55%hist 44% | +13pp | $1,925 | $5,250 | — | $15,781 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $28 9.1% OTM over spot $25.67 2 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.86 mid) = $1,925 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $28.86) 80% EV / mo +$1,507 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,833/mo median; plan ~$1,926/mo after 68% keep · $7,206 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.4-2.7], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,700 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $33 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.05/sh now → $1.45 mid-life (likely $1.62–$2.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,232 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $29 (overshoots $0.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $7 below CC-SS $35.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.77 collected) or spot ≥ $28.86 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,025 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $28): -$15,781 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,906 (+$4,244 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-256 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,650, the opportunity cost of earning $5,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,525, position total $-15,272 (+$4,878 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 23 × $25.50 | 2 Oct | 11d | -0.7% | 51%hist 68% | 100%hist 90% | · | $3,933 | $10,726 | +$5,476 | $18,106 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $25.50 0.7% ITM over spot $25.67 2 Oct 2026 (11d, $1.79 mid) = $3,933 credit for the 11d cycle → $10,726/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 51% Breach risk 49% POP (stays ≤ $27.30) 68% EV / mo +$1,851 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,055 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $32 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.77/sh now → $1.25 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $10 below CC-SS $35.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.43/sh (~25% of the $1.71 collected) or spot ≥ $27.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,025 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $25.50): -$18,106 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $35): -$10 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,242 (+$1,908 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-256 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,986, the opportunity cost of earning $10,726/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,191, position total $-17,932 (+$2,218 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.851 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,025 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-256
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27.50 | 4d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.32 | 22/25 | $5,280 | $5,295 | 77% | 82% | +$1,089 | -$15,977 | 289.2% | $-16,118 (vs do-nothing $-15,862) |
| $28 | 11d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.77 | 25/25 | $5,250 | $5,250 | 74% | 80% | +$1,507 | -$15,781 | 285.6% | $-15,906 (vs do-nothing $-15,650) |
| $27 | 4d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.52 | 14/25 | $5,460 | $5,515 | 71% | 79% | +$1,675 | -$10,587 | 191.6% | $-10,770 (vs do-nothing $-10,514) |
| $27.50 | 11d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.91 | 22/25 | $5,460 | $5,475 | 70% | 77% | +$1,430 | -$14,679 | 265.7% | $-14,820 (vs do-nothing $-14,564) |
| $27.50 | 18d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.27 | 25/25 | $5,292 | $5,292 | 67% | 76% | +$1,186 | -$15,781 | 285.6% | $-15,906 (vs do-nothing $-15,650) |
| $27 | 11d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.07 | 18/25 | $5,253 | $5,288 | 66% | 75% | +$1,240 | -$12,622 | 228.5% | $-12,784 (vs do-nothing $-12,528) |
| $26.50 | 4d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.52 | 14/25 | $5,460 | $5,515 | 65% | 75% | +$183 | -$11,287 | 204.3% | $-11,470 (vs do-nothing $-11,214) |
| $27 | 18d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.44 | 22/25 | $5,280 | $5,295 | 64% | 74% | +$1,089 | -$14,613 | 264.5% | $-14,754 (vs do-nothing $-14,498) |
| $26.50 | 11d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.25 | 16/25 | $5,455 | $5,500 | 61% | 73% | +$1,141 | -$11,732 | 212.3% | $-11,904 (vs do-nothing $-11,648) |
| $26.50 | 18d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.63 | 20/25 | $5,433 | $5,458 | 60% | 72% | +$1,030 | -$13,905 | 251.7% | $-14,056 (vs do-nothing $-13,800) |
| $26.50 | 25d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.93 | 23/25 | $5,327 | $5,337 | 60% | 72% | +$936 | -$15,300 | 276.9% | $-15,436 (vs do-nothing $-15,180) |
| $26 | 4d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.75 | 10/25 | $5,625 | $5,700 | 57% | 72% | +$475 | -$8,332 | 150.8% | $-8,536 (vs do-nothing $-8,280) |
| $26 | 25d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.15 | 21/25 | $5,418 | $5,438 | 57% | 71% | +$893 | -$14,558 | 263.5% | $-14,704 (vs do-nothing $-14,448) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26 | 18d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.85 | 18/25 | $5,550 | $5,585 | 56% | 71% | +$988 | -$13,018 | 235.6% | $-13,180 (vs do-nothing $-12,924) |
| $26 | 11d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.47 | 14/25 | $5,613 | $5,668 | 56% | 71% | +$1,081 | -$10,657 | 192.9% | $-10,840 (vs do-nothing $-10,584) |
| $25.50 | 25d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.38 | 19/25 | $5,426 | $5,456 | 53% | 69% | +$818 | -$13,684 | 247.7% | $-13,841 (vs do-nothing $-13,585) |
| $25.50 | 18d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.08 | 16/25 | $5,547 | $5,592 | 52% | 69% | +$898 | -$12,004 | 217.3% | $-12,176 (vs do-nothing $-11,920) |
| $25.50 | 11d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.71 | 12/25 | $5,596 | $5,661 | 51% | 68% | +$966 | -$9,447 | 171.0% | $-9,640 (vs do-nothing $-9,384) |
| $25.50 | 4d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.02 | 7/25 | $5,355 | $5,445 | 49% | 68% | +$540 | -$5,994 | 108.5% | $-6,213 (vs do-nothing $-5,957) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.