25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $35.05 (banked floor $32.30) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $7,809/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $679/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-18,212 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $32.5C 16 Oct 2026 | U10001299 | $0.34 | $3,431 | 2026-09-21 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 25 Sep 2026 · 3d | 11 × $28 | 74% | $4,070 | $1,141 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 2 Oct 2026 · 10d | 21 × $29 | 75% | $3,969 | $-60 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $30 | 25 Sep | 3d | 12.9% | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 13% | +4pp | $175 | $1,750 | -$2,320 | $12,456 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $30 12.9% OTM over spot $26.57 25 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.18 mid) = $175 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $30.18) 93% EV / mo +$397 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 78% whole by 9mo vs 74% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,232/mo median; plan ~$838/mo after 68% keep · $2,078 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.3-2.3], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,311 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $35 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.41/sh now → $0.99 mid-life (likely $0.90–$1.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 235 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $31 (overshoots $0.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $5 below CC-SS $35.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $30.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,212 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,195 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $30): -$12,456 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,474 (+$5,739 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-74 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,400, the opportunity cost of earning $1,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.42 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,375, position total $-11,894 (+$6,318 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 24 × $29.50 | 25 Sep | 3d | 11.0% | 89%hist 86% | 23%hist 25% | +4pp | $264 | $2,640 | -$1,430 | $13,062 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $29.50 11.0% OTM over spot $26.57 25 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.22 mid) = $264 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,640/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29.50) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $29.72) 90% EV / mo +$633 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,725/mo median; plan ~$1,173/mo after 68% keep · $3,221 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.4-2.2], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,061 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $35 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.37/sh now → $0.97 mid-life (likely $0.95–$1.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 363 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $30 (overshoots $0.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29.50 is $6 below CC-SS $35.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $29.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,212 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,195 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $29.50): -$13,062 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $35): -$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,082 (+$5,131 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-74 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,008, the opportunity cost of earning $2,640/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.42 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,144, position total $-12,660 (+$5,552 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 11 × $28 | 25 Sep | 3d | 5.4% | 74%hist 84% | 53%hist 44% | +9pp | $407 | $4,070 | — | $7,351 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 11 × $28 5.4% OTM over spot $26.57 25 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.43 mid) = $407 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,070/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $28.43) 79% EV / mo +$914 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 80% whole by 9mo vs 71% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,959/mo median; plan ~$1,332/mo after 68% keep · $3,686 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.5], measured ONLY among the 80% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$576 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $33 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.26/sh now → $0.89 mid-life (likely $1.04–$1.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,103 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $29 (overshoots $0.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $7 below CC-SS $35.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $28.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,212 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,195 − CC assignment net of premium (11 × $28): -$7,351 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $35): -$31 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,400 (+$10,813 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-74 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,326, the opportunity cost of earning $4,070/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.42 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,555, position total $-9,032 (+$9,180 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 22 × $28 | 25 Sep | 3d | 5.4% | 74%hist 84% | 53%hist 44% | +13pp | $814 | $8,140 | +$4,070 | $14,701 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $28 5.4% OTM over spot $26.57 25 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.43 mid) = $814 credit for the 3d cycle → $8,140/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $28.43) 79% EV / mo +$1,828 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 85% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,975/mo median; plan ~$2,703/mo after 68% keep · $5,337 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.3], measured ONLY among the 85% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,152 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $33 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.26/sh now → $0.89 mid-life (likely $1.03–$1.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,030 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $29 (overshoots $0.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $7 below CC-SS $35.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $28.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,212 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,195 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $28): -$14,701 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $35): -$7 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,726 (+$3,487 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-74 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,652, the opportunity cost of earning $8,140/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.42 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,110, position total $-14,620 (+$3,592 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $32 | 2 Oct | 10d | 20.4% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 25% | +2pp | $275 | $825 | -$3,144 | $7,356 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $32 20.4% OTM over spot $26.57 2 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.18 mid) = $275 credit for the 10d cycle → $825/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $32) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $32.18) 91% EV / mo $-120 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $624/mo median; plan ~$425/mo after 68% keep · $1,179 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,735 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $35 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.27/sh now → $1.60 mid-life (likely $1.37–$2.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 368 simulated challenges: the $32 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $33 (overshoots $0.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $32 is $3 below CC-SS $35.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $32.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $32)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,212 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,195 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $32): -$7,356 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,374 (+$10,839 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-74 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,300, the opportunity cost of earning $825/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.42 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,275, position total $-6,794 (+$11,418 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 24 × $30 | 2 Oct | 10d | 12.9% | 82%hist 86% | 39%hist 30% | +5pp | $864 | $2,592 | -$1,377 | $11,262 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $30 12.9% OTM over spot $26.57 2 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.46 mid) = $864 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,592/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $30.46) 84% EV / mo +$339 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,722/mo median; plan ~$1,171/mo after 68% keep · $3,224 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.2], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,604 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $33 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.04/sh now → $1.44 mid-life (likely $1.44–$2.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 816 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $31 (overshoots $0.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $5 below CC-SS $35.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.36 collected) or spot ≥ $30.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,212 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,195 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $30): -$11,262 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $35): -$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,282 (+$6,931 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-74 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,208, the opportunity cost of earning $2,592/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.42 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,344, position total $-10,860 (+$7,352 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 21 × $29 | 2 Oct | 10d | 9.1% | 75%hist 84% | 52%hist 44% | +7pp | $1,323 | $3,969 | — | $11,387 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $29 9.1% OTM over spot $26.57 2 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.72 mid) = $1,323 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,969/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $29.71) 80% EV / mo +$913 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 79% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,515/mo median; plan ~$1,710/mo after 68% keep · $3,942 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.5-2.1], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,551 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $33 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.93/sh now → $1.37 mid-life (likely $1.52–$2.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,190 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $30 (overshoots $0.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $6 below CC-SS $35.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $29.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,212 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,195 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $29): -$11,387 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $35): -$9 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,414 (+$6,799 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-74 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,340, the opportunity cost of earning $3,969/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.42 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,959, position total $-11,466 (+$6,746 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 25 × $27.50 | 2 Oct | 10d | 3.5% | 62%hist 65% | 80%hist 68% | +14pp | $2,700 | $8,100 | +$4,131 | $16,181 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $27.50 3.5% OTM over spot $26.57 2 Oct 2026 (10d, $1.19 mid) = $2,700 credit for the 10d cycle → $8,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $28.69) 73% EV / mo +$1,344 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 84% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,696/mo median; plan ~$3,193/mo after 68% keep · $5,275 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.3-1.7], measured ONLY among the 84% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$443 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $35 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.78/sh now → $1.26 mid-life (likely $1.65–$2.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,934 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $28 (overshoots $0.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $8 below CC-SS $35.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.08 collected) or spot ≥ $28.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,212 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,195 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $27.50): -$16,181 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,199 (+$2,014 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-74 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,125, the opportunity cost of earning $8,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.42 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,100, position total $-15,619 (+$2,593 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.858 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$18,195 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-74
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $29 | 10d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.63 | 21/25 | $3,969 | $3,990 | 75% | 80% | +$913 | -$11,387 | 206.1% | $-11,414 (vs do-nothing $-11,340) |
| $28 | 3d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.37 | 11/25 | $4,070 | $4,144 | 74% | 79% | +$914 | -$7,351 | 133.0% | $-7,400 (vs do-nothing $-7,326) |
| $29 | 17d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.97 | 23/25 | $3,937 | $3,948 | 71% | 78% | +$734 | -$11,690 | 211.6% | $-11,712 (vs do-nothing $-11,638) |
| $28.50 | 10d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.75 | 18/25 | $4,050 | $4,087 | 71% | 77% | +$812 | -$10,444 | 189.0% | $-10,478 (vs do-nothing $-10,404) |
| $29 | 24d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.31 | 24/25 | $3,930 | $3,935 | 69% | 77% | +$690 | -$11,382 | 206.0% | $-11,402 (vs do-nothing $-11,328) |
| $28.50 | 17d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.13 | 20/25 | $3,988 | $4,015 | 68% | 76% | +$727 | -$10,845 | 196.3% | $-10,874 (vs do-nothing $-10,800) |
| $27.50 | 3d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.49 | 8/25 | $3,920 | $4,010 | 67% | 76% | +$587 | -$5,650 | 102.3% | $-5,706 (vs do-nothing $-5,632) |
| $28 | 10d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.90 | 15/25 | $4,050 | $4,103 | 67% | 75% | +$732 | -$9,229 | 167.0% | $-9,269 (vs do-nothing $-9,195) |
| $28 | 17d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.25 | 18/25 | $3,971 | $4,008 | 65% | 74% | +$544 | -$10,444 | 189.0% | $-10,478 (vs do-nothing $-10,404) |
| $28 | 24d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.64 | 20/25 | $4,100 | $4,126 | 64% | 73% | +$600 | -$10,825 | 195.9% | $-10,854 (vs do-nothing $-10,780) |
| $27.50 | 10d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.08 | 13/25 | $4,212 | $4,276 | 62% | 73% | +$699 | -$8,414 | 152.3% | $-8,459 (vs do-nothing $-8,385) |
| $27.50 | 17d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.38 | 17/25 | $4,140 | $4,182 | 61% | 72% | +$376 | -$10,493 | 189.9% | $-10,529 (vs do-nothing $-10,455) |
| $27.50 | 24d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.82 | 18/25 | $4,095 | $4,132 | 61% | 72% | +$590 | -$10,318 | 186.8% | $-10,352 (vs do-nothing $-10,278) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27 | 3d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.60 | 7/25 | $4,200 | $4,295 | 59% | 71% | +$68 | -$5,217 | 94.4% | $-5,275 (vs do-nothing $-5,201) |
| $27 | 10d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.25 | 11/25 | $4,125 | $4,199 | 57% | 70% | +$520 | -$7,483 | 135.4% | $-7,532 (vs do-nothing $-7,458) |
| $27 | 24d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.68 | 19/25 | $3,990 | $4,022 | 57% | 70% | $-187 | -$12,108 | 219.1% | $-12,139 (vs do-nothing $-12,065) |
| $27 | 17d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.66 | 14/25 | $4,101 | $4,159 | 57% | 70% | +$509 | -$8,949 | 162.0% | $-8,992 (vs do-nothing $-8,918) |
| $26.50 | 24d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.25 | 14/25 | $3,938 | $3,996 | 54% | 69% | +$411 | -$8,823 | 159.7% | $-8,866 (vs do-nothing $-8,792) |
| $26.50 | 17d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.84 | 13/25 | $4,221 | $4,285 | 53% | 68% | +$373 | -$8,726 | 157.9% | $-8,771 (vs do-nothing $-8,697) |
| $26.50 | 10d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.46 | 9/25 | $3,942 | $4,027 | 52% | 68% | +$393 | -$6,383 | 115.5% | $-6,437 (vs do-nothing $-6,363) |
| $26.50 | 3d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.59 | 7/25 | $4,130 | $4,225 | 51% | 65% | $-1,566 | -$5,574 | 100.9% | $-5,632 (vs do-nothing $-5,558) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.