25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $34.71 (banked floor $31.95) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $7,594/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $657/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-16,650 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $32.5C 16 Oct 2026 | U10001299 | $0.34 | $3,431 | 2026-09-21 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 25 Sep 2026 · 2d | 16 × $29 | 88% | $3,840 | $1,613 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 2 Oct 2026 · 9d | 22 × $29 | 73% | $3,887 | $-1,261 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 21 × $29.50 | 25 Sep | 2d | 9.5% | 93%hist 96% | 14%hist 13% | +8pp | $168 | $2,520 | -$1,320 | $10,771 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $29.50 9.5% OTM over spot $26.95 25 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.18 mid) = $168 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $29.68) 94% EV / mo +$1,632 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 78% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,950/mo median; plan ~$1,326/mo after 68% keep · $2,975 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.3-2.0], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,772 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $34 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.31/sh now → $0.92 mid-life (likely $0.95–$1.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 218 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $30 (overshoots $0.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29.50 is $5 below CC-SS $34.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $29.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,701 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $29.50): -$10,771 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $37): +$12 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,708 (+$5,942 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $126 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,834, the opportunity cost of earning $2,520/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.46 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,148, position total $-10,773 (+$5,877 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $29.50 | 25 Sep | 2d | 9.5% | 93%hist 96% | 14%hist 13% | +9pp | $200 | $3,000 | -$840 | $12,822 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $29.50 9.5% OTM over spot $26.95 25 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.18 mid) = $200 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $29.68) 94% EV / mo +$1,943 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 79% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,356/mo median; plan ~$1,602/mo after 68% keep · $3,243 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-1.9], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,109 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $34 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.31/sh now → $0.92 mid-life (likely $0.99–$1.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 239 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $30 (overshoots $0.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29.50 is $5 below CC-SS $34.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $29.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,701 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $29.50): -$12,822 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,771 (+$3,879 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $126 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,897, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.46 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,700, position total $-12,337 (+$4,313 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 16 × $29 | 25 Sep | 2d | 7.6% | 88%hist 86% | 23%hist 25% | +9pp | $256 | $3,840 | — | $8,878 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $29 7.6% OTM over spot $26.95 25 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.23 mid) = $256 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,840/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $29.23) 91% EV / mo +$2,439 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 80% whole by 9mo vs 71% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,596/mo median; plan ~$1,765/mo after 68% keep · $4,239 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.3], measured ONLY among the 80% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,182 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $34 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.27/sh now → $0.90 mid-life (likely $0.95–$1.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 416 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $30 (overshoots $0.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $6 below CC-SS $34.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $29.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,701 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $29): -$8,878 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $37): +$27 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,800 (+$7,850 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $126 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,926, the opportunity cost of earning $3,840/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.46 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,880, position total $-9,490 (+$7,160 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 15 × $28 | 25 Sep | 2d | 3.9% | 74%hist 84% | 53%hist 44% | +14pp | $525 | $7,875 | +$4,035 | $9,538 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $28 3.9% OTM over spot $26.95 25 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.47 mid) = $525 credit for the 2d cycle → $7,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $28.48) 82% EV / mo +$3,272 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 81% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,811/mo median; plan ~$2,591/mo after 68% keep · $5,380 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.4-2.2], measured ONLY among the 81% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$749 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $34 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.20/sh now → $0.85 mid-life (likely $1.00–$2.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 989 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $29 (overshoots $0.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $7 below CC-SS $34.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $28.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,701 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $28): -$9,538 + Conservative CC premium (10 × $37): +$30 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,457 (+$7,193 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $126 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,583, the opportunity cost of earning $7,875/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.46 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,665, position total $-10,272 (+$6,378 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $30 | 2 Oct | 9d | 11.3% | 80%hist 86% | 41%hist 39% | +6pp | $760 | $2,533 | -$1,353 | $8,187 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $30 11.3% OTM over spot $26.95 2 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.51 mid) = $760 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,533/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $30.51) 83% EV / mo +$474 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,672/mo median; plan ~$1,137/mo after 68% keep · $2,900 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.3], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,095 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $33 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.12/sh now → $1.50 mid-life (likely $1.56–$2.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 920 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $31 (overshoots $0.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $5 below CC-SS $34.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $30.51 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,701 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $30): -$8,187 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $37): +$18 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,118 (+$8,532 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $126 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,244, the opportunity cost of earning $2,533/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.46 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,814, position total $-8,433 (+$8,217 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 22 × $29 | 2 Oct | 9d | 7.6% | 73%hist 84% | 57%hist 44% | +5pp | $1,166 | $3,887 | — | $11,394 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $29 7.6% OTM over spot $26.95 2 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.82 mid) = $1,166 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,887/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $29.82) 79% EV / mo +$105 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 79% whole by 9mo vs 73% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,518/mo median; plan ~$1,712/mo after 68% keep · $3,174 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.6], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,964 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $32 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.01/sh now → $1.42 mid-life (likely $1.62–$2.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,300 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $30 (overshoots $0.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $6 below CC-SS $34.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.53 collected) or spot ≥ $29.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,701 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $29): -$11,394 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $37): +$9 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,334 (+$5,316 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $126 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,460, the opportunity cost of earning $3,887/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.46 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,646, position total $-11,274 (+$5,376 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 24 × $27.50 | 2 Oct | 9d | 2.0% | 59%hist 68% | 87%hist 78% | +12pp | $2,376 | $7,920 | +$4,033 | $14,926 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $27.50 2.0% OTM over spot $26.95 2 Oct 2026 (9d, $1.29 mid) = $2,376 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,920/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $28.80) 71% EV / mo +$61 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 83% whole by 9mo vs 71% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,898/mo median; plan ~$3,331/mo after 68% keep · $4,580 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.3-1.4], measured ONLY among the 83% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 70% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$761 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $34 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.85/sh now → $1.31 mid-life (likely $1.78–$2.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.99/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,111 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $28 (overshoots $0.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $7 below CC-SS $34.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $0.99 collected) or spot ≥ $28.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,701 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $27.50): -$14,926 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $37): +$3 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,871 (+$1,779 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $126 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,998, the opportunity cost of earning $7,920/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.46 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,928, position total $-14,562 (+$2,088 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 25 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.861 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$16,701 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $126
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $29 | 2d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.16 | 16/25 | $3,840 | $3,891 | 88% | 91% | +$2,439 | -$8,878 | 160.7% | $-8,800 (vs do-nothing $-8,926) |
| $28.50 | 2d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.17 | 15/25 | $3,825 | $3,881 | 82% | 86% | +$1,282 | -$9,058 | 164.0% | $-8,977 (vs do-nothing $-9,103) |
| $28 | 2d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.35 | 8/25 | $4,200 | $4,296 | 74% | 82% | +$1,745 | -$5,087 | 92.1% | $-4,985 (vs do-nothing $-5,111) |
| $29 | 9d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.53 | 22/25 | $3,887 | $3,904 | 73% | 79% | +$105 | -$11,394 | 206.2% | $-11,334 (vs do-nothing $-11,460) |
| $29.50 | 23d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.23 | 24/25 | $3,850 | $3,856 | 70% | 77% | +$655 | -$9,550 | 172.8% | $-9,495 (vs do-nothing $-9,622) |
| $29 | 16d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.90 | 23/25 | $3,881 | $3,892 | 69% | 76% | +$148 | -$11,061 | 200.2% | $-11,003 (vs do-nothing $-11,130) |
| $28.50 | 9d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.66 | 18/25 | $3,960 | $3,999 | 68% | 77% | +$97 | -$9,988 | 180.8% | $-9,916 (vs do-nothing $-10,042) |
| $29 | 23d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.41 | 21/25 | $3,862 | $3,885 | 67% | 76% | +$674 | -$9,028 | 163.4% | $-8,965 (vs do-nothing $-9,091) |
| $28.50 | 16d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.06 | 20/25 | $3,975 | $4,003 | 66% | 74% | +$163 | -$10,298 | 186.4% | $-10,232 (vs do-nothing $-10,358) |
| $28.50 | 23d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.61 | 19/25 | $3,990 | $4,024 | 64% | 74% | +$707 | -$8,738 | 158.2% | $-8,669 (vs do-nothing $-8,795) |
| $27.50 | 2d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.32 | 8/25 | $3,840 | $3,936 | 64% | 76% | $-319 | -$5,511 | 99.7% | $-5,409 (vs do-nothing $-5,535) |
| $28 | 9d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.83 | 14/25 | $3,873 | $3,935 | 64% | 73% | +$147 | -$8,231 | 149.0% | $-8,146 (vs do-nothing $-8,273) |
| $28 | 16d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.23 | 17/25 | $3,921 | $3,966 | 62% | 73% | +$133 | -$9,314 | 168.6% | $-9,239 (vs do-nothing $-9,365) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $28 | 23d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.74 | 17/25 | $3,858 | $3,903 | 61% | 73% | +$524 | -$8,447 | 152.9% | $-8,372 (vs do-nothing $-8,498) |
| $27.50 | 9d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.99 | 12/25 | $3,960 | $4,033 | 59% | 71% | +$30 | -$7,463 | 135.1% | $-7,373 (vs do-nothing $-7,499) |
| $27.50 | 16d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.41 | 15/25 | $3,966 | $4,022 | 58% | 70% | +$77 | -$8,698 | 157.4% | $-8,617 (vs do-nothing $-8,743) |
| $27.50 | 23d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.98 | 15/25 | $3,874 | $3,930 | 58% | 71% | +$544 | -$7,843 | 142.0% | $-7,762 (vs do-nothing $-7,888) |
| $27 | 23d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.13 | 14/25 | $3,890 | $3,951 | 55% | 70% | +$382 | -$7,811 | 141.4% | $-7,726 (vs do-nothing $-7,853) |
| $27 | 16d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.62 | 13/25 | $3,949 | $4,016 | 54% | 69% | +$47 | -$7,916 | 143.3% | $-7,828 (vs do-nothing $-7,955) |
| $27 | 9d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.19 | 10/25 | $3,967 | $4,051 | 53% | 68% | $-27 | -$6,519 | 118.0% | $-6,423 (vs do-nothing $-6,549) |
| $27 | 2d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.61 | 5/25 | $4,575 | $4,688 | 52% | 71% | +$445 | -$3,549 | 64.2% | $-3,438 (vs do-nothing $-3,564) |
| $26.50 | 23d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.30 | 13/25 | $3,900 | $3,968 | 51% | 68% | +$237 | -$7,682 | 139.0% | $-7,594 (vs do-nothing $-7,721) |
| $26.50 | 16d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.85 | 11/25 | $3,816 | $3,894 | 50% | 67% | +$13 | -$6,995 | 126.6% | $-6,902 (vs do-nothing $-7,028) |
| $26.50 | 9d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.42 | 9/25 | $4,260 | $4,350 | 48% | 66% | $-82 | -$6,110 | 110.6% | $-6,011 (vs do-nothing $-6,137) |
| $26.50 | 2d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.80 | 4/25 | $4,800 | $4,918 | 40% | 68% | +$87 | -$2,964 | 53.6% | $-2,849 (vs do-nothing $-2,976) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.