25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $35.24 (banked floor $32.49) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $8,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $697/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-20,025 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $32.5C 16 Oct 2026 | U10001299 | $0.34 | $3,431 | 2026-09-21 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 2 Oct 2026 · 8d | 22 × $28 | 76% | $4,125 | $528 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $34 | 16 Oct | 22d | 31.3% | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 13% | +0pp | $200 | $273 | -$3,852 | $2,893 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $34 31.3% OTM over spot $25.90 16 Oct 2026 (22d, $0.25 mid) = $200 credit for the 22d cycle → $273/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $34) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $34.25) 92% EV / mo $-248 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $175/mo median; plan ~$119/mo after 68% keep · $676 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.5-2.9], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,073 Free roll-up none Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.54/sh now → $2.51 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $34 is $1 below CC-SS $35.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $34.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $34)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,912 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $34): -$2,893 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,006 (+$17,019 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,631 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$7,625, the opportunity cost of earning $273/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-4,074 (+$15,951 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $28.50 | 2 Oct | 8d | 10.0% | 80%hist 84% | 42%hist 39% | +5pp | $720 | $2,700 | -$1,425 | $11,407 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $28.50 10.0% OTM over spot $25.90 2 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.47 mid) = $720 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $28.96) 83% EV / mo +$745 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,506/mo median; plan ~$1,024/mo after 68% keep · $3,782 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.5], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,381 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $33 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.65/sh now → $1.17 mid-life (likely $1.15–$1.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 956 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $29 (overshoots $0.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28.50 is $7 below CC-SS $35.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $28.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,912 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $28.50): -$11,407 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $31): -$2,945 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,465 (+$5,560 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,631 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,834, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,064, position total $-13,783 (+$6,242 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 22 × $28 | 2 Oct | 8d | 8.1% | 76%hist 84% | 51%hist 44% | +11pp | $1,100 | $4,125 | — | $14,822 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $28 8.1% OTM over spot $25.90 2 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.57 mid) = $1,100 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,125/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $28.57) 80% EV / mo +$1,008 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,157/mo median; plan ~$1,467/mo after 68% keep · $5,647 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.3], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,395 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $32 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.60/sh now → $1.13 mid-life (likely $1.24–$1.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,121 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $29 (overshoots $0.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $7 below CC-SS $35.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $28.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,912 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $28): -$14,822 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $31): -$1,262 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,197 (+$3,828 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,631 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,566, the opportunity cost of earning $4,125/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,736, position total $-15,515 (+$4,510 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 23 × $26.50 | 2 Oct | 8d | 2.3% | 60%hist 68% | 84%hist 78% | +11pp | $2,185 | $8,194 | +$4,069 | $17,911 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $26.50 2.3% OTM over spot $25.90 2 Oct 2026 (8d, $1.07 mid) = $2,185 credit for the 8d cycle → $8,194/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $27.57) 72% EV / mo +$1,252 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,306/mo median; plan ~$2,248/mo after 68% keep · $6,280 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.3], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$200 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $33 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.47/sh now → $1.04 mid-life (likely $1.38–$1.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,998 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $27 (overshoots $0.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $9 below CC-SS $35.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.95 collected) or spot ≥ $27.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,912 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $26.50): -$17,911 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $31): -$841 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,865 (+$1,160 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,631 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,234, the opportunity cost of earning $8,194/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,639, position total $-18,183 (+$1,842 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.853 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$19,912 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,631
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $28 | 8d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.50 | 22/25 | $4,125 | $4,143 | 76% | 80% | +$1,008 | -$14,822 | 268.3% | $-16,197 (vs do-nothing $-5,566) |
| $27.50 | 8d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.63 | 17/25 | $4,016 | $4,064 | 71% | 77% | +$892 | -$12,082 | 218.7% | $-15,561 (vs do-nothing $-4,930) |
| $28 | 15d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.89 | 23/25 | $4,094 | $4,106 | 71% | 78% | +$847 | -$14,599 | 264.2% | $-15,553 (vs do-nothing $-4,922) |
| $28 | 22d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.19 | 25/25 | $4,057 | $4,057 | 69% | 76% | +$706 | -$15,118 | 273.6% | $-15,231 (vs do-nothing $-4,600) |
| $27.50 | 15d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.04 | 20/25 | $4,160 | $4,190 | 67% | 75% | +$782 | -$13,395 | 242.4% | $-15,611 (vs do-nothing $-4,980) |
| $27 | 8d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.77 | 14/25 | $4,042 | $4,108 | 66% | 74% | +$730 | -$10,454 | 189.2% | $-15,195 (vs do-nothing $-4,564) |
| $27.50 | 22d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.34 | 22/25 | $4,020 | $4,038 | 65% | 74% | +$610 | -$14,074 | 254.7% | $-15,449 (vs do-nothing $-4,818) |
| $27 | 15d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.20 | 17/25 | $4,080 | $4,128 | 63% | 73% | +$656 | -$11,963 | 216.5% | $-15,442 (vs do-nothing $-4,811) |
| $27 | 22d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.52 | 20/25 | $4,145 | $4,175 | 62% | 73% | +$572 | -$13,435 | 243.2% | $-15,651 (vs do-nothing $-5,020) |
| $26.50 | 8d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.95 | 12/25 | $4,275 | $4,353 | 60% | 72% | +$653 | -$9,345 | 169.1% | $-14,927 (vs do-nothing $-4,296) |
| $26.50 | 15d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.39 | 15/25 | $4,170 | $4,230 | 59% | 71% | +$582 | -$11,021 | 199.5% | $-15,341 (vs do-nothing $-4,710) |
| $26.50 | 22d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.72 | 18/25 | $4,222 | $4,264 | 58% | 71% | +$527 | -$12,631 | 228.6% | $-15,689 (vs do-nothing $-5,058) |
| $26 | 22d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.96 | 15/25 | $4,009 | $4,069 | 55% | 69% | +$486 | -$10,916 | 197.6% | $-15,236 (vs do-nothing $-4,605) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26 | 15d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.60 | 13/25 | $4,160 | $4,232 | 54% | 69% | +$486 | -$9,929 | 179.7% | $-15,090 (vs do-nothing $-4,459) |
| $26 | 8d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.16 | 10/25 | $4,350 | $4,440 | 54% | 69% | +$544 | -$8,077 | 146.2% | $-14,501 (vs do-nothing $-3,870) |
| $25.50 | 22d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.21 | 14/25 | $4,219 | $4,285 | 51% | 68% | +$472 | -$10,538 | 190.7% | $-15,279 (vs do-nothing $-4,648) |
| $25.50 | 15d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.84 | 11/25 | $4,048 | $4,132 | 50% | 67% | +$397 | -$8,687 | 157.2% | $-14,690 (vs do-nothing $-4,059) |
| $25.50 | 8d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.40 | 8/25 | $4,200 | $4,302 | 47% | 66% | +$408 | -$6,670 | 120.7% | $-13,935 (vs do-nothing $-3,304) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.