FORTRESS FIGHT: GLXY @ $24.89

BE SS: $39.71  |  CC-SS: $34.67  |  25 contracts (2,500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-09-25 21:45

GLXYBBC @ $24.89   UNDERWATER $14.82 (37.3% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
GLXY reports 2026-10-20 (Tue), in 25 days. The recommended CC (7d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-10-20.
PARTIAL: 100 of 125 contracts already capped (100x $30C). FIGHTing the 25 uncapped; all figures (income, hedge, cap give-up) are for that slice.

25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped)  |  BE SS: $39.71  |  CC-SS: $34.67 (banked floor $31.91)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $37.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $4.148/sh)
SP: $37.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $21.813/sh)
HP: $17.50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.960/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$55,525(ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500
Normal income ref$8,089/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)$0/moHP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $691/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L$-20,838fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$4,045/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$8,089/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.7 mo to earn back $5,525
ML VELOCITY
6.9 mo to earn back $55,525
Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $34.67 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $30C (14d, $214/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$6,095
Hole (after banked)
$14,743
was $20,838 · 29% earned back
Cycles closed
12
Credit in flight
$6,603
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$34.67 → $31.91
? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
Open legAcctCredit/shIn flightOpened
100x $30C 16 Oct 2026U10001299$0.66$6,6032026-09-25
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 45 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bullish, hist rising
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 53 · %B 52 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $33.35 (+34%) · daily UBB $27.65 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-20: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 24 contracts at $27 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 78%, breach 22%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($4,045/mo); it brings $4,114/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 23 × $25.50/7d for $8,280/mo, but breach risk rises to 39% (+17pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 25 × $37.50/21d (97% survival, $179/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $17,453 (316% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $40, recoverable in 2.2 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 24 contracts realizes $-20,208 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 2 Oct 2026 (7d) · sell 24 × $27, 78% survival, $4,114/mo (E[net] $768/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆2 Oct 2026 · 7d24 × $2778%$4,114$768
E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $960 with probability 67%; on the 33% touch you roll, paying $2,542 to close and taking $1,157 back from the best priced door (net cash $1,385) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 2 Oct 2026 · 7d · E[net] $768/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 24 × $27 (50% normal), 78% survival, breach 22%, $4,114/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $27.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 82% (breach 22% → 18%) for $1,414/mo less (34% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.
GLXY  spot $24.89 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
▸🛡 safe yield25 × $292 Oct7d16.5%91%hist 96%18%hist 13%+4pp$250$1,071-$3,043$13,930
Sell 25 × $29 16.5% OTM over spot $24.89 2 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.23 mid)
= $250 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,071/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $29)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $29.23)
92%
EV / mo
+$242
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+4pp
63% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.9/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$720/mo
median; plan ~$490/mo after 68% keep · $2,826 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.2], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
11%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,729
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026)
$33 @ 79% POP
75% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.68/sh now → $1.19 mid-life (likely $0.96–$1.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.09/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 319 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $30 (overshoots $0.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (25 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$299 Oct 202610d left+$0.54/sh+$1,345
cycle +$1,595
[+$1,151…+$1,918] · 99% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$10,549 NOT
cap gain +$10,288
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$3223 Oct 202624d left+$0.27/sh+$667
cycle +$917
[+$220…+$1,226] · 81% credit
77%
surv 71%
-$4,651 NOT
cap gain +$16,187
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$309 Oct 202610d left+$0.05/sh+$136
cycle +$386
[-$253…+$552] · 59% credit
72%
surv 63%
-$9,411 NOT
cap gain +$11,426
Max even-money escape in the band~$3323 Oct 202624d left+$0.03/sh+$82
cycle +$332
[-$451…+$618] · 54% credit
79%
surv 75%
-$3,120 NOT
cap gain +$17,717
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,071/mo
vs 50% target ($4,045/mo)-74%
vs normal income ($8,089/mo)13% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,071/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $29 is $6 below CC-SS $34.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$13,930
… as % of IC ($5,525)252.1%
… as % of ML ($55,525)25.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.7 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)$-21,175
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $29.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $28.71Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$29-29.23
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $29.23
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$29.00 (1.4σ)$250$-11,895+$8,943+$150
+2.5%$29.72 (1.7σ)$-1,562$-12,174+$8,664-$1,662
+5%$30.45 (1.9σ)$-3,375$-12,453+$8,384-$3,475
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (5.1σ)$-26,525$-16,018+$4,819-$26,625
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.67, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,838
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,689
− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $29): -$13,930
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,079 (+$6,759 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-49 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,030, the opportunity cost of earning $1,071/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $33.35 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,625, position total $-13,570 (+$7,268 vs today)
▸33% normal21 × $27.502 Oct7d10.5%82%hist 86%37%hist 30%+5pp$630$2,700-$1,414$14,431
Sell 21 × $27.50 10.5% OTM over spot $24.89 2 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.36 mid)
= $630 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,700/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $27.50)
82%
Breach risk
18%
POP (stays ≤ $27.86)
85%
EV / mo
+$865
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+5pp
72% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.8/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$1,530/mo
median; plan ~$1,040/mo after 68% keep · $4,891 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.3], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
24%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,663
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026)
$33 @ 83% POP
80% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.54/sh now → $1.09 mid-life (likely $1.06–$1.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.79/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 729 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $28 (overshoots $0.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (21 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$289 Oct 202610d left+$0.50/sh+$1,042
cycle +$1,672
[+$704…+$1,288] · 98% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$13,630 NOT
cap gain +$7,208
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$3023 Oct 202624d left+$0.50/sh+$1,040
cycle +$1,670
[+$505…+$1,318] · 92% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$9,169 NOT
cap gain +$11,669
Max even-money escape in the band~$3123 Oct 202624d left+$0.18/sh+$373
cycle +$1,003
[-$256…+$597] · 59% credit
77%
surv 72%
-$7,721 NOT
cap gain +$13,117
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$299 Oct 202610d left+$0.02/sh+$41
cycle +$671
[-$442…+$188] · 35% credit
72%
surv 63%
-$12,283 NOT
cap gain +$8,555
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3323 Oct 202624d left-$0.22/sh-$457
cycle +$173
[-$1,207…-$306] · 14% credit
83%
surv 80%
-$4,320 NOT
cap gain +$16,517
budget: banked $630 debit $457 (73% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$173 cash · rolled 21 ct earn ≈ $2,295/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,700/mo
vs 50% target ($4,045/mo)-33%
vs normal income ($8,089/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,723/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $27.50 is $7 below CC-SS $34.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$14,431
… as % of IC ($5,525)261.2%
… as % of ML ($55,525)26.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.8 mo
Surgical close (21 ct)$-17,630
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $27.86 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $27.23Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$27-27.86
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $27.86
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$27.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$630$-14,671+$6,166+$546
+2.5%$28.19 (1.1σ)$-814$-14,661+$6,176-$898
+5%$28.88 (1.4σ)$-2,258$-14,651+$6,187-$2,342
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (5.1σ)$-25,011$-14,488+$6,349-$25,095
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.67, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,838
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,689
− CC assignment net of premium (21 × $27.50): -$14,431
+ Conservative CC premium (4 × $40): +$16
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,564 (+$6,274 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-49 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,515, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $33.35 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,655, position total $-14,584 (+$6,254 vs today)
▸🎯 50% normal24 × $272 Oct7d8.5%78%hist 84%46%hist 39%+10pp$960$4,114—$17,453
Sell 24 × $27 8.5% OTM over spot $24.89 2 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.48 mid)
= $960 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,114/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $27)
78%
Breach risk
22%
POP (stays ≤ $27.48)
82%
EV / mo
+$1,238
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+10pp
71% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~2.2/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$2,063/mo
median; plan ~$1,403/mo after 68% keep · $5,977 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.1], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
33%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,582
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026)
$32 @ 84% POP
81% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.50/sh now → $1.06 mid-life (likely $1.14–$1.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 999 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $28 (overshoots $0.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (24 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$279 Oct 202610d left+$0.48/sh+$1,157
cycle +$2,117
[+$738…+$1,254] · 97% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$14,253 NOT
cap gain +$6,584
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$2923 Oct 202624d left+$0.46/sh+$1,109
cycle +$2,069
[+$434…+$1,185] · 90% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$9,840 NOT
cap gain +$10,998
Max even-money escape in the band~$3023 Oct 202624d left+$0.15/sh+$359
cycle +$1,319
[-$448…+$384] · 46% credit
78%
surv 72%
-$8,475 NOT
cap gain +$12,363
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$289 Oct 202610d left+$0.01/sh+$20
cycle +$980
[-$610…+$29] · 27% credit
73%
surv 64%
-$13,043 NOT
cap gain +$7,794
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3223 Oct 202624d left-$0.24/sh-$573
cycle +$387
[-$1,535…-$598] · 10% credit
84%
surv 81%
-$5,176 NOT
cap gain +$15,662
budget: banked $960 debit $573 (60% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$387 cash · rolled 24 ct earn ≈ $2,462/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,114/mo
vs 50% target ($4,045/mo)+2%
vs normal income ($8,089/mo)51% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,120/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $27 is $8 below CC-SS $34.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$17,453
… as % of IC ($5,525)315.9%
… as % of ML ($55,525)31.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.2 mo
Surgical close (24 ct)$-20,208
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $27.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $26.73Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$27-27.48
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $27.48
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$27.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$960$-15,411+$5,427+$864
+2.5%$27.67 (≤1σ, normal week)$-660$-15,603+$5,234-$756
+5%$28.35 (1.2σ)$-2,280$-15,796+$5,042-$2,376
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (5.1σ)$-29,544$-19,033+$1,804-$29,640
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.67, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,838
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,689
− CC assignment net of premium (24 × $27): -$17,453
+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $40): +$4
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,597 (+$3,240 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-49 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,549, the opportunity cost of earning $4,114/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $33.35 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,280, position total $-17,221 (+$3,617 vs today)
▸100% normal23 × $25.502 Oct7d2.5%61%hist 65%82%hist 78%+15pp$1,932$8,280+$4,166$19,164
Sell 23 × $25.50 2.5% OTM over spot $24.89 2 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.94 mid)
= $1,932 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,280/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $25.50)
61%
Breach risk
39%
POP (stays ≤ $26.44)
72%
EV / mo
+$1,590
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+15pp
77% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~4.6/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$2,975/mo
median; plan ~$2,023/mo after 68% keep · $7,042 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.7], measured ONLY among the 77% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
64%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$287
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026)
$34 @ 92% POP
91% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.36/sh now → $0.96 mid-life (likely $1.28–$1.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.12/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,921 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $26 (overshoots $0.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (23 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$269 Oct 202610d left+$0.44/sh+$1,017
cycle +$2,949
[+$459…+$792] · 95% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$16,590 NOT
cap gain +$4,247
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$2823 Oct 202624d left+$0.37/sh+$841
cycle +$2,773
[-$57…+$491] · 72% credit
75%
surv 68%
-$12,304 NOT
cap gain +$8,534
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$269 Oct 202610d left+$0.17/sh+$394
cycle +$2,326
[-$289…+$128] · 41% credit
70%
surv 59%
-$15,923 NOT
cap gain +$4,914
Max even-money escape in the band~$2923 Oct 202624d left+$0.07/sh+$159
cycle +$2,091
[-$893…-$247] · 14% credit
79%
surv 74%
-$10,871 NOT
cap gain +$9,967
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$3423 Oct 202624d left-$0.70/sh-$1,620
cycle +$312
[-$3,264…-$2,232]
92%
surv 91%
-$2,075 NOT
cap gain +$18,762
budget: banked $1,932 debit $1,620 (84% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$312 cash · rolled 23 ct earn ≈ $748/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$8,280/mo
vs 50% target ($4,045/mo)+105%
vs normal income ($8,089/mo)102% covered
Net income (after hedge)$8,291/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $25.50 is $9 below CC-SS $34.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$19,164
… as % of IC ($5,525)346.9%
… as % of ML ($55,525)34.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.4 mo
Surgical close (23 ct)$-19,401
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.84 collected) or spot ≥ $26.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $25.25Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$25-26.44
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $26.44
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$25.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,932$-17,607+$3,230+$1,840
+2.5%$26.14 (≤1σ, normal week)$466$-17,725+$3,112+$374
+5%$26.78 (≤1σ, normal week)$-1,001$-17,843+$2,994-$1,093
SS (= V-bounce)$39.71 (5.1σ)$-30,751$-20,236+$601-$30,843
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.67, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,838
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,689
− CC assignment net of premium (23 × $25.50): -$19,164
+ Conservative CC premium (2 × $40): +$8
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,304 (+$1,533 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-49 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,256, the opportunity cost of earning $8,280/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $33.35 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,123, position total $-19,060 (+$1,778 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GLXY are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (19 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.846 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$20,689 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-49

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$277d2 Oct 2026$0.4024/25$4,114$4,12078%82%+$1,238-$17,453315.9%$-17,597 (vs do-nothing $-17,549)
$26.507d2 Oct 2026$0.5219/25$4,234$4,26973%79%+$1,137-$14,539263.1%$-14,663 (vs do-nothing $-14,615)
$2714d9 Oct 2026$0.7825/25$4,179$4,17972%78%+$703-$17,230311.9%$-17,379 (vs do-nothing $-17,330)
$26.5014d9 Oct 2026$0.9221/25$4,140$4,16368%76%+$608-$15,229275.6%$-15,362 (vs do-nothing $-15,313)
$267d2 Oct 2026$0.6615/25$4,243$4,30067%76%+$954-$12,018217.5%$-12,127 (vs do-nothing $-12,078)
$26.5021d16 Oct 2026$1.1725/25$4,179$4,17966%75%+$469-$17,505316.8%$-17,654 (vs do-nothing $-17,605)
$2614d9 Oct 2026$1.0918/25$4,204$4,24464%73%+$566-$13,648247.0%$-13,768 (vs do-nothing $-13,720)
$2621d16 Oct 2026$1.4520/25$4,143$4,17163%73%+$696-$14,444261.4%$-14,573 (vs do-nothing $-14,524)
$2628d23 Oct 2026$1.7422/25$4,101$4,11962%73%+$561-$15,250276.0%$-15,387 (vs do-nothing $-15,338)
$25.507d2 Oct 2026$0.8412/25$4,320$4,39461%72%+$830-$9,998181.0%$-10,095 (vs do-nothing $-10,046)
$25.5014d9 Oct 2026$1.2915/25$4,146$4,20459%71%+$483-$11,823214.0%$-11,932 (vs do-nothing $-11,883)
$25.5021d16 Oct 2026$1.6418/25$4,217$4,25759%71%+$626-$13,558245.4%$-13,678 (vs do-nothing $-13,630)
$2528d23 Oct 2026$2.1218/25$4,089$4,12955%70%+$415-$13,594246.0%$-13,714 (vs do-nothing $-13,666)
Show 6 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$2521d16 Oct 2026$1.8616/25$4,251$4,30355%69%+$446-$12,499226.2%$-12,612 (vs do-nothing $-12,563)
$2514d9 Oct 2026$1.5113/25$4,206$4,27554%69%+$431-$10,611192.0%$-10,711 (vs do-nothing $-10,663)
$257d2 Oct 2026$1.059/25$4,050$4,14154%69%+$631-$7,760140.4%$-7,844 (vs do-nothing $-7,796)
$24.5021d16 Oct 2026$2.0914/25$4,180$4,24351%68%+$403-$11,315204.8%$-11,419 (vs do-nothing $-11,371)
$24.5014d9 Oct 2026$1.7511/25$4,125$4,20550%67%+$351-$9,264167.7%$-9,357 (vs do-nothing $-9,308)
$24.507d2 Oct 2026$1.298/25$4,423$4,52047%66%+$523-$7,106128.6%$-7,186 (vs do-nothing $-7,138)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-09-25 21:45