25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $34.67 (banked floor $31.91) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $8,089/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $691/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-20,838 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $30C 16 Oct 2026 | U10001299 | $0.66 | $6,603 | 2026-09-25 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 2 Oct 2026 · 7d | 24 × $27 | 78% | $4,114 | $768 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $29 | 2 Oct | 7d | 16.5% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 13% | +4pp | $250 | $1,071 | -$3,043 | $13,930 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $29 16.5% OTM over spot $24.89 2 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.23 mid) = $250 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,071/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $29) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $29.23) 92% EV / mo +$242 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $720/mo median; plan ~$490/mo after 68% keep · $2,826 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.2], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,729 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $33 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.68/sh now → $1.19 mid-life (likely $0.96–$1.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 319 simulated challenges: the $29 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $30 (overshoots $0.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $29 is $6 below CC-SS $34.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $29.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $29)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,838 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,689 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $29): -$13,930 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,079 (+$6,759 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-49 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,030, the opportunity cost of earning $1,071/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.35 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,625, position total $-13,570 (+$7,268 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 21 × $27.50 | 2 Oct | 7d | 10.5% | 82%hist 86% | 37%hist 30% | +5pp | $630 | $2,700 | -$1,414 | $14,431 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $27.50 10.5% OTM over spot $24.89 2 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.36 mid) = $630 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $27.86) 85% EV / mo +$865 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,530/mo median; plan ~$1,040/mo after 68% keep · $4,891 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.3], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,663 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $33 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.54/sh now → $1.09 mid-life (likely $1.06–$1.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 729 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $28 (overshoots $0.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $7 below CC-SS $34.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $27.86 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,838 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,689 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $27.50): -$14,431 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $40): +$16 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,564 (+$6,274 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-49 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,515, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.35 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,655, position total $-14,584 (+$6,254 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 24 × $27 | 2 Oct | 7d | 8.5% | 78%hist 84% | 46%hist 39% | +10pp | $960 | $4,114 | — | $17,453 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $27 8.5% OTM over spot $24.89 2 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.48 mid) = $960 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,114/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $27.48) 82% EV / mo +$1,238 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,063/mo median; plan ~$1,403/mo after 68% keep · $5,977 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.1], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,582 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $32 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.50/sh now → $1.06 mid-life (likely $1.14–$1.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 999 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $28 (overshoots $0.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $8 below CC-SS $34.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $27.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,838 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,689 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $27): -$17,453 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $40): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,597 (+$3,240 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-49 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,549, the opportunity cost of earning $4,114/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.35 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,280, position total $-17,221 (+$3,617 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 23 × $25.50 | 2 Oct | 7d | 2.5% | 61%hist 65% | 82%hist 78% | +15pp | $1,932 | $8,280 | +$4,166 | $19,164 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $25.50 2.5% OTM over spot $24.89 2 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.94 mid) = $1,932 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,280/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $26.44) 72% EV / mo +$1,590 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 77% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,975/mo median; plan ~$2,023/mo after 68% keep · $7,042 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.7], measured ONLY among the 77% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$287 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $34 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.36/sh now → $0.96 mid-life (likely $1.28–$1.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,921 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $26 (overshoots $0.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $9 below CC-SS $34.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.84 collected) or spot ≥ $26.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,838 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,689 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $25.50): -$19,164 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $40): +$8 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,304 (+$1,533 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-49 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,256, the opportunity cost of earning $8,280/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $33.35 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,123, position total $-19,060 (+$1,778 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.846 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,689 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-49
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27 | 7d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.40 | 24/25 | $4,114 | $4,120 | 78% | 82% | +$1,238 | -$17,453 | 315.9% | $-17,597 (vs do-nothing $-17,549) |
| $26.50 | 7d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.52 | 19/25 | $4,234 | $4,269 | 73% | 79% | +$1,137 | -$14,539 | 263.1% | $-14,663 (vs do-nothing $-14,615) |
| $27 | 14d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.78 | 25/25 | $4,179 | $4,179 | 72% | 78% | +$703 | -$17,230 | 311.9% | $-17,379 (vs do-nothing $-17,330) |
| $26.50 | 14d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.92 | 21/25 | $4,140 | $4,163 | 68% | 76% | +$608 | -$15,229 | 275.6% | $-15,362 (vs do-nothing $-15,313) |
| $26 | 7d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.66 | 15/25 | $4,243 | $4,300 | 67% | 76% | +$954 | -$12,018 | 217.5% | $-12,127 (vs do-nothing $-12,078) |
| $26.50 | 21d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.17 | 25/25 | $4,179 | $4,179 | 66% | 75% | +$469 | -$17,505 | 316.8% | $-17,654 (vs do-nothing $-17,605) |
| $26 | 14d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.09 | 18/25 | $4,204 | $4,244 | 64% | 73% | +$566 | -$13,648 | 247.0% | $-13,768 (vs do-nothing $-13,720) |
| $26 | 21d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.45 | 20/25 | $4,143 | $4,171 | 63% | 73% | +$696 | -$14,444 | 261.4% | $-14,573 (vs do-nothing $-14,524) |
| $26 | 28d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.74 | 22/25 | $4,101 | $4,119 | 62% | 73% | +$561 | -$15,250 | 276.0% | $-15,387 (vs do-nothing $-15,338) |
| $25.50 | 7d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.84 | 12/25 | $4,320 | $4,394 | 61% | 72% | +$830 | -$9,998 | 181.0% | $-10,095 (vs do-nothing $-10,046) |
| $25.50 | 14d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.29 | 15/25 | $4,146 | $4,204 | 59% | 71% | +$483 | -$11,823 | 214.0% | $-11,932 (vs do-nothing $-11,883) |
| $25.50 | 21d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.64 | 18/25 | $4,217 | $4,257 | 59% | 71% | +$626 | -$13,558 | 245.4% | $-13,678 (vs do-nothing $-13,630) |
| $25 | 28d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.12 | 18/25 | $4,089 | $4,129 | 55% | 70% | +$415 | -$13,594 | 246.0% | $-13,714 (vs do-nothing $-13,666) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25 | 21d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.86 | 16/25 | $4,251 | $4,303 | 55% | 69% | +$446 | -$12,499 | 226.2% | $-12,612 (vs do-nothing $-12,563) |
| $25 | 14d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.51 | 13/25 | $4,206 | $4,275 | 54% | 69% | +$431 | -$10,611 | 192.0% | $-10,711 (vs do-nothing $-10,663) |
| $25 | 7d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.05 | 9/25 | $4,050 | $4,141 | 54% | 69% | +$631 | -$7,760 | 140.4% | $-7,844 (vs do-nothing $-7,796) |
| $24.50 | 21d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.09 | 14/25 | $4,180 | $4,243 | 51% | 68% | +$403 | -$11,315 | 204.8% | $-11,419 (vs do-nothing $-11,371) |
| $24.50 | 14d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.75 | 11/25 | $4,125 | $4,205 | 50% | 67% | +$351 | -$9,264 | 167.7% | $-9,357 (vs do-nothing $-9,308) |
| $24.50 | 7d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.29 | 8/25 | $4,423 | $4,520 | 47% | 66% | +$523 | -$7,106 | 128.6% | $-7,186 (vs do-nothing $-7,138) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.