25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $35.03 (banked floor $32.28) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $9,273/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $734/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-23,275 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $30C 16 Oct 2026 | U10001299 | $0.66 | $6,603 | 2026-09-25 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 2 Oct 2026 · 4d | 21 × $26 | 80% | $4,725 | $2,182 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 9 Oct 2026 · 11d | 25 × $26 | 72% | $4,705 | $-317 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $28 | 2 Oct | 4d | 16.2% | 93%hist 96% | 14%hist 14% | +8pp | $150 | $1,125 | -$3,600 | $17,433 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $28 16.2% OTM over spot $24.09 2 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.10 mid) = $150 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,125/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $28.09) 94% EV / mo +$365 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $775/mo median; plan ~$527/mo after 68% keep · $3,301 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.8-3.7], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,309 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $33 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.39/sh now → $0.98 mid-life (likely $0.82–$1.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 179 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $29 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $7 below CC-SS $35.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $28.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,872 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $28): -$17,433 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,837 (+$5,438 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-378 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,458, the opportunity cost of earning $1,125/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,000, position total $-16,946 (+$6,329 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 14 × $26 | 2 Oct | 4d | 7.9% | 80%hist 86% | 41%hist 41% | +9pp | $420 | $3,150 | -$1,575 | $12,227 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $26 7.9% OTM over spot $24.09 2 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.36 mid) = $420 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $26.36) 84% EV / mo +$1,188 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,555/mo median; plan ~$1,057/mo after 68% keep · $5,333 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.2], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$803 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $31 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.24/sh now → $0.87 mid-life (likely $0.90–$1.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 824 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $27 (overshoots $0.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $9 below CC-SS $35.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $26.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,872 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $26): -$12,227 + Conservative CC premium (11 × $40): +$11 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,619 (+$10,656 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-378 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,241, the opportunity cost of earning $3,150/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,184, position total $-14,119 (+$9,156 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 21 × $26 | 2 Oct | 4d | 7.9% | 80%hist 86% | 41%hist 41% | +15pp | $630 | $4,725 | — | $18,340 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $26 7.9% OTM over spot $24.09 2 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.36 mid) = $630 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,725/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $26.36) 84% EV / mo +$1,781 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,356/mo median; plan ~$1,602/mo after 68% keep · $8,391 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.7], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,205 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $31 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.24/sh now → $0.87 mid-life (likely $0.89–$1.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 790 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $27 (overshoots $0.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $9 below CC-SS $35.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $26.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,872 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $26): -$18,340 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $40): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,739 (+$4,536 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-378 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,361, the opportunity cost of earning $4,725/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,776, position total $-18,718 (+$4,557 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 23 × $25 | 2 Oct | 4d | 3.8% | 67%hist 64% | 68%hist 59% | +22pp | $1,265 | $9,488 | +$4,762 | $21,812 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $25 3.8% OTM over spot $24.09 2 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.61 mid) = $1,265 credit for the 4d cycle → $9,488/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $25.61) 76% EV / mo +$2,560 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +22pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,502/mo median; plan ~$2,382/mo after 68% keep · $11,652 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.7], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 49% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$624 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $31 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.16/sh now → $0.82 mid-life (likely $1.02–$1.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,478 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $26 (overshoots $0.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $10 below CC-SS $35.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $25.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,872 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $25): -$21,812 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $40): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,213 (+$1,062 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-378 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,835, the opportunity cost of earning $9,488/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,813, position total $-21,757 (+$1,518 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 25 × $27 | 9 Oct | 11d | 12.1% | 79%hist 82% | 44%hist 41% | +8pp | $1,150 | $3,136 | -$1,568 | $18,933 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $27 12.1% OTM over spot $24.09 9 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.56 mid) = $1,150 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,136/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $27.56) 83% EV / mo +$609 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,626/mo median; plan ~$1,106/mo after 68% keep · $5,714 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.7-3.3], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,313 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $30 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.96/sh now → $1.39 mid-life (likely $1.38–$2.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 963 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $28 (overshoots $0.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $8 below CC-SS $35.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.46 collected) or spot ≥ $27.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,872 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $27): -$18,933 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,337 (+$3,938 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-378 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,958, the opportunity cost of earning $3,136/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,500, position total $-18,446 (+$4,829 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 25 × $26 | 9 Oct | 11d | 7.9% | 72%hist 82% | 59%hist 46% | +13pp | $1,725 | $4,705 | — | $20,858 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $26 7.9% OTM over spot $24.09 9 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.75 mid) = $1,725 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,705/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $26.75) 78% EV / mo +$1,045 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,986/mo median; plan ~$1,351/mo after 68% keep · $9,427 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.9], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,533 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $30 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.84/sh now → $1.30 mid-life (likely $1.49–$2.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.69/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,378 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $27 (overshoots $0.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $9 below CC-SS $35.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.69 collected) or spot ≥ $26.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,872 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $26): -$20,858 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,262 (+$2,013 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-378 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,883, the opportunity cost of earning $4,705/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,425, position total $-20,371 (+$2,904 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 24 × $24 | 9 Oct | 11d | -0.4% | 52%hist 68% | 100%hist 90% | · | $3,480 | $9,491 | +$4,786 | $23,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $24 0.4% ITM over spot $24.09 9 Oct 2026 (11d, $1.56 mid) = $3,480 credit for the 11d cycle → $9,491/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $25.57) 68% EV / mo +$1,371 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$728 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $30 @ 94% POP 93% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.62/sh now → $1.15 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24 is $11 below CC-SS $35.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.45 collected) or spot ≥ $25.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,872 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $24): -$23,000 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $40): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,402 ($-127 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-378 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,024, the opportunity cost of earning $9,491/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,784, position total $-22,729 (+$546 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.836 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$22,872 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-378
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $26 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.30 | 21/25 | $4,725 | $4,732 | 80% | 84% | +$1,781 | -$18,340 | 331.9% | $-18,739 (vs do-nothing $-18,361) |
| $25.50 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.40 | 16/25 | $4,800 | $4,815 | 74% | 80% | +$1,490 | -$14,613 | 264.5% | $-15,008 (vs do-nothing $-14,629) |
| $26 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.69 | 25/25 | $4,705 | $4,705 | 72% | 78% | +$1,045 | -$20,858 | 377.5% | $-21,262 (vs do-nothing $-20,883) |
| $25.50 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.83 | 21/25 | $4,754 | $4,760 | 68% | 76% | +$1,054 | -$18,277 | 330.8% | $-18,676 (vs do-nothing $-18,298) |
| $25 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.55 | 12/25 | $4,950 | $4,972 | 67% | 76% | +$1,336 | -$11,380 | 206.0% | $-11,770 (vs do-nothing $-11,392) |
| $25.50 | 18d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.16 | 24/25 | $4,640 | $4,642 | 66% | 75% | +$894 | -$20,096 | 363.7% | $-20,498 (vs do-nothing $-20,120) |
| $25 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.99 | 18/25 | $4,860 | $4,872 | 63% | 73% | +$876 | -$16,278 | 294.6% | $-16,674 (vs do-nothing $-16,296) |
| $25 | 18d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.33 | 21/25 | $4,655 | $4,662 | 62% | 72% | +$775 | -$18,277 | 330.8% | $-18,676 (vs do-nothing $-18,298) |
| $25 | 25d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.70 | 23/25 | $4,692 | $4,695 | 61% | 73% | +$745 | -$19,167 | 346.9% | $-19,568 (vs do-nothing $-19,190) |
| $24.50 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.73 | 9/25 | $4,928 | $4,954 | 59% | 72% | +$1,068 | -$8,823 | 159.7% | $-9,210 (vs do-nothing $-8,832) |
| $24.50 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.19 | 15/25 | $4,868 | $4,885 | 57% | 71% | +$740 | -$14,015 | 253.7% | $-14,408 (vs do-nothing $-14,030) |
| $24.50 | 18d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.57 | 18/25 | $4,710 | $4,722 | 57% | 71% | +$792 | -$16,134 | 292.0% | $-16,530 (vs do-nothing $-16,152) |
| $24 | 25d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.12 | 19/25 | $4,834 | $4,844 | 54% | 70% | +$611 | -$16,935 | 306.5% | $-17,333 (vs do-nothing $-16,954) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 | 18d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.80 | 16/25 | $4,800 | $4,815 | 53% | 69% | +$719 | -$14,773 | 267.4% | $-15,168 (vs do-nothing $-14,789) |
| $24 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.45 | 12/25 | $4,745 | $4,767 | 52% | 68% | +$686 | -$11,500 | 208.1% | $-11,890 (vs do-nothing $-11,512) |
| $24 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.95 | 7/25 | $4,988 | $5,018 | 50% | 68% | +$827 | -$7,058 | 127.8% | $-7,444 (vs do-nothing $-7,065) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.