25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $35.02 (banked floor $32.27) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,882/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $736/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,150 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $26C 2 Oct 2026 | U10001299 | $0.26 | $2,631 | 2026-09-29 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 2 Oct 2026 · 3d | 15 × $25.50 | 85% | $3,450 | $1,948 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 9 Oct 2026 · 10d | 24 × $26 | 77% | $3,528 | $-155 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $26.50 | 2 Oct | 3d | 12.1% | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 14% | +4pp | $150 | $1,500 | -$1,950 | $21,146 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $26.50 12.1% OTM over spot $23.64 2 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.12 mid) = $150 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $26.61) 92% EV / mo +$354 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $971/mo median; plan ~$660/mo after 68% keep · $4,696 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.3], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,924 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $31 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.17/sh now → $0.83 mid-life (likely $0.74–$1.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 275 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $27 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $9 below CC-SS $35.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $26.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,724 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $26.50): -$21,146 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,572 (+$2,578 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-347 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,225, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,725, position total $-20,672 (+$3,478 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 10 × $25.50 | 2 Oct | 3d | 7.9% | 85%hist 86% | 31%hist 33% | +7pp | $230 | $2,300 | -$1,150 | $9,288 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $25.50 7.9% OTM over spot $23.64 2 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.31 mid) = $230 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $25.81) 88% EV / mo +$1,326 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,394/mo median; plan ~$948/mo after 68% keep · $8,136 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.9-3.7], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$550 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $29 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.10/sh now → $0.78 mid-life (likely $0.82–$1.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 634 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $26 (overshoots $0.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $10 below CC-SS $35.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $25.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,724 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $25.50): -$9,288 + Conservative CC premium (15 × $35): +$47 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,667 (+$14,483 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-347 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,320, the opportunity cost of earning $2,300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,120, position total $-11,992 (+$12,158 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 15 × $25.50 | 2 Oct | 3d | 7.9% | 85%hist 86% | 31%hist 33% | +12pp | $345 | $3,450 | — | $13,933 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $25.50 7.9% OTM over spot $23.64 2 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.31 mid) = $345 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $25.81) 88% EV / mo +$1,989 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,012/mo median; plan ~$1,368/mo after 68% keep · $9,225 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.1-4.1], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$826 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $29 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.10/sh now → $0.78 mid-life (likely $0.78–$1.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 638 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $26 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $10 below CC-SS $35.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $25.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,724 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $25.50): -$13,933 + Conservative CC premium (10 × $35): +$32 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,327 (+$9,823 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-347 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,980, the opportunity cost of earning $3,450/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,680, position total $-15,577 (+$8,573 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 21 × $25 | 2 Oct | 3d | 5.8% | 75%hist 82% | 50%hist 46% | +16pp | $693 | $6,930 | +$3,480 | $20,346 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $25 5.8% OTM over spot $23.64 2 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.39 mid) = $693 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,930/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $25.39) 81% EV / mo +$2,071 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +16pp 73% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,169/mo median; plan ~$2,155/mo after 68% keep · $10,702 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.7], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$896 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $30 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.07/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.82–$1.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 902 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $26 (overshoots $0.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $10 below CC-SS $35.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $25.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,724 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $25): -$20,346 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $35): +$13 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,759 (+$3,391 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-347 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,412, the opportunity cost of earning $6,930/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,792, position total $-20,719 (+$3,431 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $28.50 | 9 Oct | 10d | 20.6% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +0pp | $125 | $375 | -$3,153 | $16,171 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $28.50 20.6% OTM over spot $23.64 9 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.23 mid) = $125 credit for the 10d cycle → $375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $28.73) 92% EV / mo $-340 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $261/mo median; plan ~$178/mo after 68% keep · $1,433 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.6], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,446 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $31 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.02/sh now → $1.43 mid-life (likely $1.15–$1.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 362 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $29 (overshoots $0.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28.50 is $7 below CC-SS $35.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $28.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,724 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $28.50): -$16,171 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,597 (+$7,553 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-347 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,250, the opportunity cost of earning $375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,750, position total $-15,697 (+$8,453 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $26.50 | 9 Oct | 10d | 12.1% | 81%hist 86% | 40%hist 33% | +5pp | $780 | $2,340 | -$1,188 | $16,257 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $26.50 12.1% OTM over spot $23.64 9 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.47 mid) = $780 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,340/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $26.96) 84% EV / mo +$647 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,211/mo median; plan ~$823/mo after 68% keep · $5,560 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.1], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,758 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $30 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.79/sh now → $1.27 mid-life (likely $1.26–$1.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 903 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $27 (overshoots $0.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26.50 is $9 below CC-SS $35.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $26.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,724 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $26.50): -$16,257 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $35): +$16 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,667 (+$7,483 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-347 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,320, the opportunity cost of earning $2,340/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,920, position total $-16,842 (+$7,308 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 24 × $26 | 9 Oct | 10d | 10.0% | 77%hist 82% | 48%hist 41% | +9pp | $1,176 | $3,528 | — | $20,468 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $26 10.0% OTM over spot $23.64 9 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.54 mid) = $1,176 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,528/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $26.55) 81% EV / mo +$892 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,612/mo median; plan ~$1,096/mo after 68% keep · $7,603 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [1.0-3.9], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,778 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $29 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.74/sh now → $1.23 mid-life (likely $1.33–$1.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,133 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $27 (overshoots $0.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $9 below CC-SS $35.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $26.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,724 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $26): -$20,468 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $35): +$3 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,891 (+$3,259 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-347 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,544, the opportunity cost of earning $3,528/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,264, position total $-20,206 (+$3,944 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 21 × $24 | 9 Oct | 10d | 1.5% | 57%hist 68% | 91%hist 90% | +11pp | $2,331 | $6,993 | +$3,465 | $20,808 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $24 1.5% OTM over spot $23.64 9 Oct 2026 (10d, $1.25 mid) = $2,331 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,993/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $25.25) 70% EV / mo +$943 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,295/mo median; plan ~$1,560/mo after 68% keep · $8,749 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.9-3.4], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 74% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$58 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $30 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.53/sh now → $1.08 mid-life (likely $1.48–$2.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,210 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $25 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24 is $11 below CC-SS $35.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.11 collected) or spot ≥ $25.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,724 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $24): -$20,808 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $35): +$13 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,221 (+$2,929 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-347 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,874, the opportunity cost of earning $6,993/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,254, position total $-21,181 (+$2,969 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.834 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$23,724 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-347
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25.50 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.23 | 15/25 | $3,450 | $3,538 | 85% | 88% | +$1,989 | -$13,933 | 252.2% | $-14,327 (vs do-nothing $-13,980) |
| $26 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.49 | 24/25 | $3,528 | $3,537 | 77% | 81% | +$892 | -$20,468 | 370.5% | $-20,891 (vs do-nothing $-20,544) |
| $25 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.33 | 11/25 | $3,630 | $3,754 | 75% | 81% | +$1,085 | -$10,657 | 192.9% | $-11,039 (vs do-nothing $-10,692) |
| $26 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.81 | 25/25 | $3,574 | $3,574 | 73% | 79% | +$792 | -$20,521 | 371.4% | $-20,947 (vs do-nothing $-20,600) |
| $25.50 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.61 | 19/25 | $3,477 | $3,530 | 73% | 79% | +$787 | -$16,926 | 306.4% | $-17,333 (vs do-nothing $-16,986) |
| $26 | 24d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.11 | 25/25 | $3,469 | $3,469 | 71% | 77% | +$607 | -$19,771 | 357.8% | $-20,197 (vs do-nothing $-19,850) |
| $25.50 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.95 | 21/25 | $3,521 | $3,556 | 69% | 77% | +$712 | -$17,994 | 325.7% | $-18,407 (vs do-nothing $-18,060) |
| $25 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.60 | 20/25 | $3,600 | $3,644 | 68% | 75% | $-23 | -$18,837 | 340.9% | $-19,247 (vs do-nothing $-18,900) |
| $24.50 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.46 | 8/25 | $3,680 | $3,830 | 68% | 76% | +$784 | -$8,047 | 145.6% | $-8,419 (vs do-nothing $-8,072) |
| $25 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.11 | 18/25 | $3,526 | $3,588 | 66% | 75% | +$645 | -$16,035 | 290.2% | $-16,439 (vs do-nothing $-16,092) |
| $25 | 24d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.42 | 20/25 | $3,550 | $3,594 | 64% | 74% | +$576 | -$17,197 | 311.3% | $-17,607 (vs do-nothing $-17,260) |
| $24.50 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.89 | 13/25 | $3,471 | $3,577 | 63% | 73% | +$486 | -$12,517 | 226.6% | $-12,905 (vs do-nothing $-12,558) |
| $24.50 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.28 | 16/25 | $3,614 | $3,694 | 61% | 73% | +$564 | -$14,781 | 267.5% | $-15,179 (vs do-nothing $-14,832) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.62 | 6/25 | $3,720 | $3,888 | 59% | 73% | +$980 | -$6,239 | 112.9% | $-6,605 (vs do-nothing $-6,258) |
| $24 | 24d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.79 | 16/25 | $3,580 | $3,659 | 57% | 70% | +$377 | -$14,765 | 267.2% | $-15,163 (vs do-nothing $-14,816) |
| $24 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.11 | 11/25 | $3,663 | $3,787 | 57% | 70% | +$494 | -$10,899 | 197.3% | $-11,281 (vs do-nothing $-10,934) |
| $24 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.45 | 14/25 | $3,582 | $3,679 | 57% | 70% | +$420 | -$13,396 | 242.5% | $-13,787 (vs do-nothing $-13,440) |
| $23.50 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.70 | 12/25 | $3,600 | $3,715 | 52% | 68% | +$409 | -$11,782 | 213.3% | $-12,167 (vs do-nothing $-11,820) |
| $23.50 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.33 | 9/25 | $3,591 | $3,732 | 51% | 68% | +$375 | -$9,170 | 166.0% | $-9,545 (vs do-nothing $-9,198) |
| $23.50 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.85 | 5/25 | $4,250 | $4,426 | 49% | 68% | +$680 | -$5,334 | 96.5% | $-5,697 (vs do-nothing $-5,350) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.