25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $34.54 (banked floor $31.78) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,766/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $745/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-23,962 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $26C 2 Oct 2026 | U10001299 | $0.26 | $2,631 | 2026-09-29 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 2 Oct 2026 · 2d | 20 × $25.50 | 93% | $3,000 | $-396 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 9 Oct 2026 · 9d | 23 × $25 | 73% | $2,913 | $-4,067 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 13 × $25.50 | 2 Oct | 2d | 9.9% | 93%hist 96% | 15%hist 14% | +8pp | $130 | $1,950 | -$1,050 | $11,622 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $25.50 9.9% OTM over spot $23.20 2 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.24 mid) = $130 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,950/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $25.75) 94% EV / mo +$1,409 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,384/mo median; plan ~$941/mo after 68% keep · $6,366 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-3.8], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,473 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $26 @ 69% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.74/sh now → $1.23 mid-life (likely $1.29–$2.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 290 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $26 (overshoots $0.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $9 below CC-SS $34.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $25.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,962 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,388 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $25.50): -$11,622 + Conservative CC premium (12 × $35): +$24 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,172 (+$11,791 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-524 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,648, the opportunity cost of earning $1,950/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,425, position total $-13,460 (+$10,502 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $25.50 | 2 Oct | 2d | 9.9% | 93%hist 96% | 15%hist 14% | +15pp | $200 | $3,000 | — | $17,880 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $25.50 9.9% OTM over spot $23.20 2 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.24 mid) = $200 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $25.75) 94% EV / mo +$2,167 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,218/mo median; plan ~$1,508/mo after 68% keep · $8,218 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.6], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,266 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $26 @ 69% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.74/sh now → $1.23 mid-life (likely $1.28–$2.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 302 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $26 (overshoots $0.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $9 below CC-SS $34.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $25.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,962 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,388 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $25.50): -$17,880 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $35): +$10 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,444 (+$5,519 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-524 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,920, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,500, position total $-18,549 (+$5,413 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $25.50 | 2 Oct | 2d | 9.9% | 93%hist 96% | 15%hist 14% | +14pp | $250 | $3,750 | +$750 | $22,349 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $25.50 9.9% OTM over spot $23.20 2 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.24 mid) = $250 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $25.75) 94% EV / mo +$2,709 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,663/mo median; plan ~$1,811/mo after 68% keep · $9,531 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.8], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,833 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $26 @ 69% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.74/sh now → $1.23 mid-life (likely $1.32–$2.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 294 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $26 (overshoots $0.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $9 below CC-SS $34.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $25.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,962 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,388 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $25.50): -$22,349 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,924 (+$1,039 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-524 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,399, the opportunity cost of earning $3,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,125, position total $-22,184 (+$1,778 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 25 × $24 | 2 Oct | 2d | 3.4% | 69%hist 64% | 64%hist 59% | +12pp | $400 | $6,000 | +$3,000 | $25,949 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $24 3.4% OTM over spot $23.20 2 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.58 mid) = $400 credit for the 2d cycle → $6,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $24.58) 79% EV / mo $-4,325 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,215/mo median; plan ~$1,507/mo after 68% keep · $9,610 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [0.9-4.0], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,410 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $26 @ 72% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.59/sh now → $1.12 mid-life (likely $1.34–$2.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,143 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $25 (overshoots $0.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24 is $11 below CC-SS $34.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $24.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,962 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,388 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $24): -$25,949 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,524 ($-2,561 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-524 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,999, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,725, position total $-25,784 ($-1,822 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $27.50 | 9 Oct | 9d | 18.5% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 14% | +2pp | $225 | $750 | -$2,163 | $17,374 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $27.50 18.5% OTM over spot $23.20 9 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.27 mid) = $225 credit for the 9d cycle → $750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $27.77) 92% EV / mo $-46 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $458/mo median; plan ~$311/mo after 68% keep · $2,558 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.7], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,618 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $28 @ 65% POP 53% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.74/sh now → $1.94 mid-life (likely $1.61–$2.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 439 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $28 (overshoots $0.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $7 below CC-SS $34.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $27.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,962 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,388 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $27.50): -$17,374 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,949 (+$6,014 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-524 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,424, the opportunity cost of earning $750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,150, position total $-17,209 (+$6,753 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $26 | 9 Oct | 9d | 12.1% | 82%hist 86% | 38%hist 33% | +7pp | $589 | $1,963 | -$950 | $15,637 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $26 12.1% OTM over spot $23.20 9 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.55 mid) = $589 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,963/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $26.55) 86% EV / mo +$453 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,058/mo median; plan ~$719/mo after 68% keep · $5,160 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-4.0], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,778 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $26 @ 65% POP 53% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.50/sh now → $1.77 mid-life (likely $1.77–$2.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 882 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $27 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $9 below CC-SS $34.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $26.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,962 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,388 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $26): -$15,637 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $35): +$12 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,199 (+$7,764 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-524 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,675, the opportunity cost of earning $1,963/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,426, position total $-16,473 (+$7,489 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 23 × $25 | 9 Oct | 9d | 7.8% | 73%hist 82% | 56%hist 46% | +8pp | $874 | $2,913 | — | $21,068 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $25 7.8% OTM over spot $23.20 9 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.64 mid) = $874 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,913/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $25.64) 79% EV / mo $-327 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,255/mo median; plan ~$853/mo after 68% keep · $6,082 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.6], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,958 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $25 @ 65% POP 53% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.35/sh now → $1.67 mid-life (likely $1.94–$2.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,335 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $26 (overshoots $0.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $10 below CC-SS $34.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $25.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,962 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,388 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $25): -$21,068 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $35): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,638 (+$2,325 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-524 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,114, the opportunity cost of earning $2,913/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,181, position total $-21,236 (+$2,726 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 25 × $24 | 9 Oct | 9d | 3.4% | 63%hist 64% | 79%hist 68% | +13pp | $1,750 | $5,833 | +$2,920 | $24,599 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $24 3.4% OTM over spot $23.20 9 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.85 mid) = $1,750 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,833/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $24.85) 72% EV / mo $-141 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,033/mo median; plan ~$1,383/mo after 68% keep · $8,227 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.5], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,157 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $26 @ 73% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.21/sh now → $1.56 mid-life (likely $2.08–$2.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,955 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $25 (overshoots $0.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24 is $11 below CC-SS $34.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.70 collected) or spot ≥ $24.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,962 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,388 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $24): -$24,599 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,174 ($-1,211 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-524 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,649, the opportunity cost of earning $5,833/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.85 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,375, position total $-24,434 ($-472 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.825 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$23,388 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-524
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25.50 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.10 | 20/25 | $3,000 | $3,019 | 93% | 94% | +$2,167 | -$17,880 | 323.6% | $-18,444 (vs do-nothing $-17,920) |
| $25 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.11 | 18/25 | $2,970 | $2,996 | 84% | 87% | +$322 | -$16,974 | 307.2% | $-17,534 (vs do-nothing $-17,010) |
| $25.50 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.64 | 25/25 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 73% | 80% | +$261 | -$20,999 | 380.1% | $-21,574 (vs do-nothing $-21,049) |
| $25 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.38 | 23/25 | $2,913 | $2,921 | 73% | 79% | $-327 | -$21,068 | 381.3% | $-21,638 (vs do-nothing $-21,114) |
| $25 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.65 | 24/25 | $2,925 | $2,929 | 70% | 77% | $-272 | -$21,336 | 386.2% | $-21,908 (vs do-nothing $-21,384) |
| $24 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.16 | 13/25 | $3,120 | $3,165 | 69% | 79% | $-2,249 | -$13,494 | 244.2% | $-14,044 (vs do-nothing $-13,520) |
| $24.50 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.55 | 16/25 | $2,933 | $2,967 | 68% | 78% | $-20 | -$15,184 | 274.8% | $-15,740 (vs do-nothing $-15,216) |
| $25 | 23d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.94 | 24/25 | $2,943 | $2,946 | 67% | 75% | $-728 | -$20,640 | 373.6% | $-21,212 (vs do-nothing $-20,688) |
| $24.50 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.88 | 18/25 | $2,970 | $2,996 | 65% | 75% | +$69 | -$16,488 | 298.4% | $-17,048 (vs do-nothing $-16,524) |
| $24 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.70 | 13/25 | $3,033 | $3,078 | 63% | 72% | $-73 | -$12,792 | 231.5% | $-13,342 (vs do-nothing $-12,818) |
| $24 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.00 | 16/25 | $3,000 | $3,034 | 61% | 73% | $-103 | -$15,264 | 276.3% | $-15,820 (vs do-nothing $-15,296) |
| $24 | 23d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.25 | 18/25 | $2,935 | $2,961 | 60% | 71% | $-691 | -$16,722 | 302.7% | $-17,282 (vs do-nothing $-16,758) |
| $23.50 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.31 | 7/25 | $3,255 | $3,323 | 58% | 75% | $-1,357 | -$7,511 | 135.9% | $-8,049 (vs do-nothing $-7,525) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23.50 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.79 | 11/25 | $2,897 | $2,949 | 56% | 71% | $-696 | -$11,275 | 204.1% | $-11,821 (vs do-nothing $-11,297) |
| $23.50 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.15 | 14/25 | $3,019 | $3,060 | 56% | 71% | $-227 | -$13,846 | 250.6% | $-14,398 (vs do-nothing $-13,874) |
| $23 | 23d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.65 | 14/25 | $3,013 | $3,054 | 53% | 69% | $-414 | -$13,846 | 250.6% | $-14,398 (vs do-nothing $-13,874) |
| $23 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.43 | 11/25 | $2,949 | $3,002 | 52% | 67% | $-78 | -$11,121 | 201.3% | $-11,667 (vs do-nothing $-11,143) |
| $23 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.99 | 9/25 | $2,970 | $3,030 | 50% | 69% | $-673 | -$9,495 | 171.9% | $-10,037 (vs do-nothing $-9,513) |
| $23 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.52 | 4/25 | $3,120 | $3,199 | 47% | 72% | $-903 | -$4,408 | 79.8% | $-4,940 (vs do-nothing $-4,416) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.