25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $35.08 (banked floor $32.33) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,800/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $763/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-26,088 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $26C 2 Oct 2026 | U10001299 | $0.26 | $2,631 | 2026-09-29 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 9 Oct 2026 · 8d | 24 × $25 | 79% | $3,420 | $414 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $27 | 9 Oct | 8d | 18.7% | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 14% | +4pp | $150 | $562 | -$2,858 | $20,054 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $27 18.7% OTM over spot $22.74 9 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.21 mid) = $150 credit for the 8d cycle → $562/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $27.21) 92% EV / mo $-124 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $375/mo median; plan ~$255/mo after 68% keep · $2,011 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.3], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,828 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $29 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.68/sh now → $1.19 mid-life (likely $0.92–$1.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 352 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $28 (overshoots $0.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $8 below CC-SS $35.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $27.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,088 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,331 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $27): -$20,054 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,810 (+$5,277 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-910 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,900, the opportunity cost of earning $562/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,500, position total $-19,816 (+$6,271 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 22 × $25.50 | 9 Oct | 8d | 12.1% | 83%hist 86% | 35%hist 33% | +6pp | $616 | $2,310 | -$1,110 | $20,464 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $25.50 12.1% OTM over spot $22.74 9 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.36 mid) = $616 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,310/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $25.86) 86% EV / mo +$702 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,232/mo median; plan ~$838/mo after 68% keep · $6,416 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-3.5], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,772 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $29 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.53/sh now → $1.09 mid-life (likely $0.99–$1.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 705 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $26 (overshoots $0.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $10 below CC-SS $35.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $25.86 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,088 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,331 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $25.50): -$20,464 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $35): -$19 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,238 (+$4,849 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-910 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,328, the opportunity cost of earning $2,310/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,576, position total $-20,886 (+$5,201 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 24 × $25 | 9 Oct | 8d | 9.9% | 79%hist 82% | 43%hist 41% | +10pp | $912 | $3,420 | — | $23,284 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $25 9.9% OTM over spot $22.74 9 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.45 mid) = $912 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,420/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $25.45) 83% EV / mo +$1,018 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,635/mo median; plan ~$1,112/mo after 68% keep · $9,100 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.3-4.1], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,611 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $28 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.49/sh now → $1.05 mid-life (likely $1.09–$1.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,011 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $26 (overshoots $0.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $10 below CC-SS $35.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $25.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,088 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,331 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $25): -$23,284 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $35): -$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,046 (+$2,041 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-910 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,136, the opportunity cost of earning $3,420/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,952, position total $-23,266 (+$2,821 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 23 × $23.50 | 9 Oct | 8d | 3.3% | 63%hist 64% | 78%hist 68% | +16pp | $1,840 | $6,900 | +$3,480 | $24,798 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $23.50 3.3% OTM over spot $22.74 9 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.89 mid) = $1,840 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23.50) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $24.39) 73% EV / mo +$1,346 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +16pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,326/mo median; plan ~$1,582/mo after 68% keep · $10,839 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-4.1], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$349 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $28 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.35/sh now → $0.95 mid-life (likely $1.22–$1.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,891 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $24 (overshoots $0.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $23.50 is $12 below CC-SS $35.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.80 collected) or spot ≥ $24.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,088 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,331 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $23.50): -$24,798 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $35): -$12 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,566 (+$521 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-910 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,656, the opportunity cost of earning $6,900/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,688, position total $-25,000 (+$1,087 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.821 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$25,331 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-910
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.38 | 24/25 | $3,420 | $3,424 | 79% | 83% | +$1,018 | -$23,284 | 421.4% | $-24,046 (vs do-nothing $-23,136) |
| $24.50 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.49 | 19/25 | $3,491 | $3,515 | 74% | 80% | +$911 | -$19,174 | 347.0% | $-19,967 (vs do-nothing $-19,057) |
| $25 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.71 | 24/25 | $3,408 | $3,412 | 74% | 80% | +$844 | -$22,492 | 407.1% | $-23,254 (vs do-nothing $-22,344) |
| $24.50 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.84 | 21/25 | $3,528 | $3,544 | 70% | 77% | +$766 | -$20,458 | 370.3% | $-21,238 (vs do-nothing $-20,328) |
| $24 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.62 | 15/25 | $3,488 | $3,528 | 69% | 77% | +$753 | -$15,693 | 284.0% | $-16,510 (vs do-nothing $-15,600) |
| $24 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.00 | 18/25 | $3,600 | $3,628 | 66% | 75% | +$702 | -$18,147 | 328.5% | $-18,946 (vs do-nothing $-18,036) |
| $24 | 22d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.30 | 20/25 | $3,545 | $3,565 | 64% | 74% | +$625 | -$19,563 | 354.1% | $-20,350 (vs do-nothing $-19,440) |
| $23.50 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.80 | 12/25 | $3,600 | $3,652 | 63% | 73% | +$702 | -$12,938 | 234.2% | $-13,774 (vs do-nothing $-12,864) |
| $23.50 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.18 | 15/25 | $3,540 | $3,580 | 61% | 72% | +$603 | -$15,603 | 282.4% | $-16,420 (vs do-nothing $-15,510) |
| $23 | 22d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.70 | 15/25 | $3,477 | $3,517 | 56% | 70% | +$502 | -$15,573 | 281.9% | $-16,390 (vs do-nothing $-15,480) |
| $23 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.97 | 10/25 | $3,638 | $3,698 | 56% | 70% | +$485 | -$11,112 | 201.1% | $-11,960 (vs do-nothing $-11,050) |
| $23 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.38 | 13/25 | $3,588 | $3,636 | 56% | 70% | +$514 | -$13,912 | 251.8% | $-14,742 (vs do-nothing $-13,832) |
| $22.50 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.60 | 11/25 | $3,520 | $3,576 | 51% | 68% | +$404 | -$12,080 | 218.6% | $-12,922 (vs do-nothing $-12,012) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $22.50 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.21 | 8/25 | $3,630 | $3,698 | 49% | 67% | +$392 | -$9,097 | 164.7% | $-9,958 (vs do-nothing $-9,048) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.