25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $35.45 (banked floor $32.71) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,250/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $725/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-23,775 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $26C 2 Oct 2026 | U10001299 | $0.26 | $2,631 | 2026-09-29 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 9 Oct 2026 · 7d | 20 × $26 | 74% | $2,743 | $-103 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $30 | 16 Oct | 14d | 23.5% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +3pp | $375 | $804 | -$1,939 | $13,242 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $30 23.5% OTM over spot $24.30 16 Oct 2026 (14d, $0.21 mid) = $375 credit for the 14d cycle → $804/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $30) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $30.21) 92% EV / mo +$237 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $548/mo median; plan ~$372/mo after 68% keep · $2,847 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-4.3], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,140 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $31 @ 68% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.55/sh now → $1.81 mid-life (likely $1.36–$2.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 296 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 14, at $31 (overshoots $0.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $30 is $5 below CC-SS $35.45: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $30.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $30)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.45, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,325 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $30): -$13,242 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,692 (+$10,083 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,542 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,150, the opportunity cost of earning $804/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,775, position total $-12,638 (+$11,137 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 24 × $27.50 | 9 Oct | 7d | 13.2% | 87%hist 86% | 28%hist 25% | +4pp | $408 | $1,749 | -$994 | $18,664 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $27.50 13.2% OTM over spot $24.30 9 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.24 mid) = $408 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,749/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $27.75) 88% EV / mo +$362 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,022/mo median; plan ~$695/mo after 68% keep · $4,559 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.5], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,365 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $30 @ 75% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.63/sh now → $1.16 mid-life (likely $1.06–$1.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 546 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $28 (overshoots $0.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27.50 is $8 below CC-SS $35.45: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $27.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.45, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,325 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $27.50): -$18,664 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $35): -$44 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,158 (+$4,617 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,542 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,616, the opportunity cost of earning $1,749/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,456, position total $-18,318 (+$5,457 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $26 | 9 Oct | 7d | 7.0% | 74%hist 82% | 53%hist 46% | +9pp | $640 | $2,743 | — | $18,253 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $26 7.0% OTM over spot $24.30 9 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.46 mid) = $640 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,743/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $26.46) 79% EV / mo $-246 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,211/mo median; plan ~$823/mo after 68% keep · $5,864 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.0-4.2], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,468 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $30 @ 79% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.49/sh now → $1.05 mid-life (likely $1.18–$1.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,210 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $27 (overshoots $0.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $9 below CC-SS $35.45: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $26.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.45, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,325 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $26): -$18,253 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $35): -$218 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,922 (+$4,853 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,542 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,380, the opportunity cost of earning $2,743/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,080, position total $-18,938 (+$4,837 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 25 × $25.50 | 9 Oct | 7d | 4.9% | 69%hist 64% | 65%hist 59% | +9pp | $1,225 | $5,250 | +$2,507 | $23,642 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $25.50 4.9% OTM over spot $24.30 9 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.59 mid) = $1,225 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $26.09) 75% EV / mo +$206 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,983/mo median; plan ~$1,348/mo after 68% keep · $6,209 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-2.9], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 50% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,327 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $30 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.44/sh now → $1.02 mid-life (likely $1.22–$1.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,493 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $26 (overshoots $0.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $10 below CC-SS $35.45: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $26.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $27.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.45, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,325 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $25.50): -$23,642 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,092 ($-317 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,542 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,550, the opportunity cost of earning $5,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.86 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,175, position total $-23,038 (+$737 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.837 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$23,325 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,542
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.49 | 25/25 | $2,625 | $2,625 | 77% | 81% | +$388 | -$19,892 | 360.0% | $-20,342 (vs do-nothing $-18,800) |
| $26 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.32 | 20/25 | $2,743 | $2,754 | 74% | 79% | $-246 | -$18,253 | 330.4% | $-18,922 (vs do-nothing $-17,380) |
| $26.50 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.55 | 23/25 | $2,711 | $2,715 | 74% | 79% | +$179 | -$19,312 | 349.5% | $-19,850 (vs do-nothing $-18,308) |
| $27 | 28d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.99 | 25/25 | $2,652 | $2,652 | 72% | 78% | +$113 | -$18,642 | 337.4% | $-19,092 (vs do-nothing $-17,550) |
| $26 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.61 | 21/25 | $2,745 | $2,754 | 70% | 77% | $-63 | -$18,557 | 335.9% | $-19,182 (vs do-nothing $-17,640) |
| $25.50 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.49 | 13/25 | $2,730 | $2,756 | 69% | 75% | +$107 | -$12,294 | 222.5% | $-13,268 (vs do-nothing $-11,726) |
| $26 | 21d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.92 | 20/25 | $2,629 | $2,639 | 67% | 75% | $-32 | -$17,053 | 308.7% | $-17,722 (vs do-nothing $-16,180) |
| $26 | 28d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.13 | 22/25 | $2,664 | $2,670 | 66% | 74% | $-247 | -$18,297 | 331.2% | $-18,878 (vs do-nothing $-17,336) |
| $25.50 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.96 | 13/25 | $2,674 | $2,700 | 65% | 74% | +$255 | -$11,683 | 211.5% | $-12,657 (vs do-nothing $-11,115) |
| $25 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.67 | 10/25 | $2,871 | $2,904 | 62% | 72% | +$181 | -$9,777 | 177.0% | $-10,882 (vs do-nothing $-9,340) |
| $25 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.16 | 11/25 | $2,734 | $2,764 | 60% | 72% | +$413 | -$10,215 | 184.9% | $-11,277 (vs do-nothing $-9,735) |
| $25 | 21d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.25 | 15/25 | $2,679 | $2,700 | 60% | 71% | $-76 | -$13,795 | 249.7% | $-14,682 (vs do-nothing $-13,140) |
| $25 | 28d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.53 | 17/25 | $2,787 | $2,804 | 59% | 71% | $-137 | -$15,158 | 274.4% | $-15,958 (vs do-nothing $-14,416) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24.50 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.92 | 7/25 | $2,760 | $2,799 | 55% | 70% | +$285 | -$7,019 | 127.0% | $-8,255 (vs do-nothing $-6,713) |
| $24.50 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.98 | 13/25 | $2,730 | $2,756 | 55% | 69% | $-260 | -$12,957 | 234.5% | $-13,931 (vs do-nothing $-12,389) |
| $24 | 28d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.84 | 14/25 | $2,760 | $2,784 | 52% | 68% | $-31 | -$13,449 | 243.4% | $-14,380 (vs do-nothing $-12,838) |
| $24 | 21d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.65 | 12/25 | $2,829 | $2,856 | 51% | 67% | $-146 | -$11,756 | 212.8% | $-12,774 (vs do-nothing $-11,232) |
| $24 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.25 | 10/25 | $2,679 | $2,711 | 50% | 67% | $-268 | -$10,197 | 184.6% | $-11,302 (vs do-nothing $-9,760) |
| $24 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.02 | 7/25 | $3,060 | $3,099 | 48% | 66% | $-138 | -$7,299 | 132.1% | $-8,535 (vs do-nothing $-6,993) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.