25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $34.99 (banked floor $31.04) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $7,568/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $745/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-25,213 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $28C 9 Oct 2026 | U10001299 | $0.15 | $1,458 | 2026-10-05 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 9 Oct 2026 · 4d | 16 × $24.50 | 76% | $3,960 | $518 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 16 Oct 2026 · 11d | 20 × $24.50 | 69% | $3,818 | $-1,440 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $27 | 9 Oct | 4d | 17.0% | 94%hist 96% | 12%hist 13% | +4pp | $175 | $1,312 | -$2,648 | $19,803 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $27 17.0% OTM over spot $23.08 9 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.09 mid) = $175 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,312/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $27.09) 94% EV / mo +$671 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $883/mo median; plan ~$600/mo after 68% keep · $3,843 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.8-2.9], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,433 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $30 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.48/sh now → $1.04 mid-life (likely $0.84–$1.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 117 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $28 (overshoots $0.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $27 is $8 below CC-SS $34.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $27.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,213 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,597 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $27): -$19,803 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,419 (+$4,794 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-591 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,828, the opportunity cost of earning $1,312/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.47 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,500, position total $-19,322 (+$5,890 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 23 × $25 | 9 Oct | 4d | 8.3% | 82%hist 87% | 37%hist 31% | +11pp | $345 | $2,588 | -$1,372 | $22,635 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $25 8.3% OTM over spot $23.08 9 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.26 mid) = $345 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,588/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $25.26) 85% EV / mo +$35 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,320/mo median; plan ~$898/mo after 68% keep · $6,039 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.9-3.5], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,771 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $28 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.30/sh now → $0.92 mid-life (likely $0.94–$1.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 711 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $26 (overshoots $0.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $10 below CC-SS $34.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $25.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,213 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,597 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $25): -$22,635 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $35): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,249 (+$1,964 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-591 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,658, the opportunity cost of earning $2,588/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.47 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,836, position total $-22,656 (+$2,556 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 16 × $24.50 | 9 Oct | 4d | 6.2% | 76%hist 83% | 50%hist 40% | +11pp | $528 | $3,960 | — | $16,258 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $24.50 6.2% OTM over spot $23.08 9 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.36 mid) = $528 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,960/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $24.86) 81% EV / mo +$1,159 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,722/mo median; plan ~$1,171/mo after 68% keep · $6,973 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.9-3.3], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$897 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $28 @ 80% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.26/sh now → $0.89 mid-life (likely $0.97–$1.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,009 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $25 (overshoots $0.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24.50 is $10 below CC-SS $34.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $24.86 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,213 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,597 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $24.50): -$16,258 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $35): +$9 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,865 (+$8,348 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-591 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,274, the opportunity cost of earning $3,960/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.47 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,224, position total $-18,037 (+$7,175 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 24 × $24 | 9 Oct | 4d | 4.0% | 69%hist 65% | 65%hist 56% | +21pp | $1,032 | $7,740 | +$3,780 | $25,347 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $24 4.0% OTM over spot $23.08 9 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.55 mid) = $1,032 credit for the 4d cycle → $7,740/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $24.55) 77% EV / mo +$1,520 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +21pp 73% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,966/mo median; plan ~$2,017/mo after 68% keep · $10,805 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.7], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,035 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $28 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.22/sh now → $0.86 mid-life (likely $1.05–$1.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,324 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $25 (overshoots $0.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24 is $11 below CC-SS $34.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.43 collected) or spot ≥ $24.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,213 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,597 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $24): -$25,347 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $35): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,962 ($-749 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-591 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,371, the opportunity cost of earning $7,740/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.47 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,296, position total $-25,117 (+$95 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $28 | 16 Oct | 11d | 21.3% | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 13% | +3pp | $250 | $682 | -$3,136 | $17,228 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $28 21.3% OTM over spot $23.08 16 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.17 mid) = $250 credit for the 11d cycle → $682/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $28.17) 92% EV / mo +$87 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $439/mo median; plan ~$298/mo after 68% keep · $2,695 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.3], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,824 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $29 @ 70% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.30/sh now → $1.63 mid-life (likely $1.29–$2.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 336 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $29 (overshoots $0.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $7 below CC-SS $34.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $28.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,213 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,597 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $28): -$17,228 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,844 (+$7,369 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-591 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,253, the opportunity cost of earning $682/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.47 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,925, position total $-16,747 (+$8,465 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 21 × $25.50 | 16 Oct | 11d | 10.5% | 78%hist 83% | 46%hist 40% | +8pp | $945 | $2,577 | -$1,241 | $18,987 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $25.50 10.5% OTM over spot $23.08 16 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.55 mid) = $945 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,577/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $26.05) 82% EV / mo +$590 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,337/mo median; plan ~$909/mo after 68% keep · $5,166 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.9], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,990 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $27 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.98/sh now → $1.40 mid-life (likely $1.47–$2.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,097 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $26 (overshoots $0.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $9 below CC-SS $34.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $26.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,213 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,597 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $25.50): -$18,987 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $35): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,598 (+$5,614 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-591 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,008, the opportunity cost of earning $2,577/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.47 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,692, position total $-19,510 (+$5,702 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $24.50 | 16 Oct | 11d | 6.2% | 69%hist 65% | 66%hist 56% | +9pp | $1,400 | $3,818 | — | $19,583 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $24.50 6.2% OTM over spot $23.08 16 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.90 mid) = $1,400 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,818/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24.50) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $25.39) 77% EV / mo +$662 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,546/mo median; plan ~$1,052/mo after 68% keep · $7,432 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.5], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 53% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,219 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $27 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.85/sh now → $1.31 mid-life (likely $1.59–$2.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,589 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 11, at $25 (overshoots $0.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24.50 is $10 below CC-SS $34.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.70 collected) or spot ≥ $25.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,213 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,597 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $24.50): -$19,583 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $35): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,193 (+$5,019 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-591 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,603, the opportunity cost of earning $3,818/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.47 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,540, position total $-20,357 (+$4,855 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 24 × $23 | 16 Oct | 11d | -0.3% | 52%hist 68% | 100%hist 90% | · | $2,856 | $7,789 | +$3,971 | $25,923 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $23 0.3% ITM over spot $23.08 16 Oct 2026 (11d, $1.46 mid) = $2,856 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,789/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $24.46) 68% EV / mo +$235 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$18 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $30 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.67/sh now → $1.18 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $23 is $12 below CC-SS $34.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.19 collected) or spot ≥ $24.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $23)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $34.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,213 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,597 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $23): -$25,923 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $35): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,538 ($-1,325 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-591 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,947, the opportunity cost of earning $7,789/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.47 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,872, position total $-25,693 ($-481 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.826 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,597 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-591
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24.50 | 4d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.33 | 16/25 | $3,960 | $3,985 | 76% | 81% | +$1,159 | -$16,258 | 294.3% | $-16,865 (vs do-nothing $-16,274) |
| $24.50 | 11d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.70 | 20/25 | $3,818 | $3,832 | 69% | 77% | +$662 | -$19,583 | 354.4% | $-20,193 (vs do-nothing $-19,603) |
| $24 | 4d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.43 | 12/25 | $3,870 | $3,905 | 69% | 77% | +$760 | -$12,674 | 229.4% | $-13,276 (vs do-nothing $-12,686) |
| $24.50 | 18d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.92 | 25/25 | $3,833 | $3,833 | 66% | 75% | +$132 | -$23,928 | 433.1% | $-24,544 (vs do-nothing $-23,953) |
| $24 | 11d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.81 | 18/25 | $3,976 | $3,995 | 64% | 73% | +$360 | -$18,326 | 331.7% | $-18,935 (vs do-nothing $-18,344) |
| $24 | 18d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.15 | 20/25 | $3,833 | $3,847 | 62% | 73% | +$329 | -$19,683 | 356.2% | $-20,293 (vs do-nothing $-19,703) |
| $24 | 25d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.56 | 21/25 | $3,931 | $3,942 | 61% | 72% | +$149 | -$19,806 | 358.5% | $-20,417 (vs do-nothing $-19,827) |
| $23.50 | 4d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.60 | 9/25 | $4,050 | $4,094 | 60% | 72% | +$647 | -$9,802 | 177.4% | $-10,402 (vs do-nothing $-9,811) |
| $23.50 | 11d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.03 | 14/25 | $3,933 | $3,963 | 58% | 71% | +$391 | -$14,646 | 265.1% | $-15,251 (vs do-nothing $-14,660) |
| $23.50 | 18d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.34 | 17/25 | $3,797 | $3,818 | 58% | 71% | +$285 | -$17,257 | 312.3% | $-17,865 (vs do-nothing $-17,274) |
| $23 | 25d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.97 | 17/25 | $4,019 | $4,041 | 54% | 69% | $-49 | -$17,036 | 308.3% | $-17,644 (vs do-nothing $-17,053) |
| $23 | 18d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.57 | 15/25 | $3,925 | $3,952 | 53% | 69% | +$289 | -$15,632 | 282.9% | $-16,238 (vs do-nothing $-15,647) |
| $23 | 11d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.19 | 12/25 | $3,895 | $3,930 | 52% | 68% | +$117 | -$12,962 | 234.6% | $-13,564 (vs do-nothing $-12,974) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23 | 4d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.79 | 7/25 | $4,148 | $4,197 | 50% | 69% | +$374 | -$7,841 | 141.9% | $-8,439 (vs do-nothing $-7,848) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.