25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $35.41 (banked floor $30.94) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,088/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $731/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-26,650 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $25C 9 Oct 2026 | U10001299 | $0.19 | $1,900 | 2026-10-06 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 9 Oct 2026 · 3d | 22 × $24.50 | 83% | $3,080 | $-172 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 16 Oct 2026 · 10d | 21 × $24.50 | 72% | $3,087 | $-300 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $26 | 9 Oct | 3d | 13.9% | 95%hist 96% | 11%hist 13% | +6pp | $125 | $1,250 | -$1,830 | $23,391 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $26 13.9% OTM over spot $22.83 9 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.10 mid) = $125 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $26.09) 95% EV / mo +$691 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $915/mo median; plan ~$622/mo after 68% keep · $3,444 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.0], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,165 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $29 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.30/sh now → $0.92 mid-life (likely $0.81–$1.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 149 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $27 (overshoots $0.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $26 is $9 below CC-SS $35.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $26.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,844 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $26): -$23,391 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,196 (+$2,454 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,796 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,400, the opportunity cost of earning $1,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.48 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,075, position total $-22,894 (+$3,756 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 23 × $25 | 9 Oct | 3d | 9.5% | 88%hist 87% | 24%hist 24% | +10pp | $207 | $2,070 | -$1,010 | $23,727 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $25 9.5% OTM over spot $22.83 9 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.12 mid) = $207 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,070/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $25.12) 89% EV / mo +$577 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,248/mo median; plan ~$849/mo after 68% keep · $5,939 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.9], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,770 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $28 @ 78% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.22/sh now → $0.86 mid-life (likely $0.85–$1.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 385 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $26 (overshoots $0.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $10 below CC-SS $35.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $25.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,844 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $25): -$23,727 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $35): -$79 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,612 (+$2,038 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,796 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,816, the opportunity cost of earning $2,070/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.48 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,997, position total $-23,814 (+$2,836 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 22 × $24.50 | 9 Oct | 3d | 7.3% | 83%hist 87% | 35%hist 31% | +10pp | $308 | $3,080 | — | $23,686 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $24.50 7.3% OTM over spot $22.83 9 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.18 mid) = $308 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,080/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $24.68) 85% EV / mo +$593 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,634/mo median; plan ~$1,111/mo after 68% keep · $7,123 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.8], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,522 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $28 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.18/sh now → $0.83 mid-life (likely $0.83–$1.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 649 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $25 (overshoots $0.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24.50 is $11 below CC-SS $35.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $24.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,844 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $24.50): -$23,686 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $35): -$119 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,610 (+$2,040 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,796 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,814, the opportunity cost of earning $3,080/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.48 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,248, position total $-24,064 (+$2,586 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $23.50 | 9 Oct | 3d | 2.9% | 66%hist 65% | 69%hist 56% | +18pp | $627 | $6,270 | +$3,190 | $21,995 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $23.50 2.9% OTM over spot $22.83 9 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.52 mid) = $627 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,270/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23.50) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $24.02) 76% EV / mo +$169 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +18pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,271/mo median; plan ~$1,544/mo after 68% keep · $10,197 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.1-4.5], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 47% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$851 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $28 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.10/sh now → $0.78 mid-life (likely $0.95–$1.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,420 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $24 (overshoots $0.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $23.50 is $12 below CC-SS $35.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $24.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,844 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $23.50): -$21,995 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $35): -$238 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,038 (+$3,612 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,796 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,242, the opportunity cost of earning $6,270/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.48 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,435, position total $-23,248 (+$3,402 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $28 | 16 Oct | 10d | 22.6% | 93%hist 96% | 14%hist 13% | +2pp | $175 | $525 | -$2,562 | $18,341 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $28 22.6% OTM over spot $22.83 16 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.12 mid) = $175 credit for the 10d cycle → $525/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $28) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $28.12) 93% EV / mo +$54 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 51% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $358/mo median; plan ~$243/mo after 68% keep · $2,086 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.8-4.0], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,995 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $30 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.79/sh now → $1.27 mid-life (likely $0.93–$1.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 247 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $29 (overshoots $0.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $28 is $7 below CC-SS $35.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $28.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $28)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,844 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $28): -$18,341 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,146 (+$7,504 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,796 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,350, the opportunity cost of earning $525/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.48 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,025, position total $-17,844 (+$8,806 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 24 × $25.50 | 16 Oct | 10d | 11.7% | 81%hist 87% | 40%hist 31% | +6pp | $672 | $2,016 | -$1,071 | $23,103 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $25.50 11.7% OTM over spot $22.83 16 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.43 mid) = $672 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,016/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $25.93) 84% EV / mo +$161 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,001/mo median; plan ~$681/mo after 68% keep · $5,148 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.9-3.7], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,935 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $28 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.54/sh now → $1.09 mid-life (likely $1.08–$1.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 848 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $26 (overshoots $0.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25.50 is $10 below CC-SS $35.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $25.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,844 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $25.50): -$23,103 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $35): -$40 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,948 (+$2,702 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,796 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,152, the opportunity cost of earning $2,016/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.48 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,080, position total $-22,898 (+$3,752 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 21 × $24.50 | 16 Oct | 10d | 7.3% | 72%hist 83% | 58%hist 46% | +8pp | $1,029 | $3,087 | — | $21,874 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $24.50 7.3% OTM over spot $22.83 16 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.65 mid) = $1,029 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,087/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24.50) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $25.15) 78% EV / mo +$264 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,346/mo median; plan ~$916/mo after 68% keep · $6,145 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [0.9-4.0], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 47% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,108 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $28 @ 79% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.44/sh now → $1.02 mid-life (likely $1.17–$1.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,408 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $25 (overshoots $0.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24.50 is $11 below CC-SS $35.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $25.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,844 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $24.50): -$21,874 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $35): -$159 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,838 (+$3,812 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,796 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,042, the opportunity cost of earning $3,087/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.48 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,729, position total $-22,544 (+$4,106 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 25 × $23.50 | 16 Oct | 10d | 2.9% | 61%hist 65% | 82%hist 79% | +11pp | $2,075 | $6,225 | +$3,138 | $27,691 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $23.50 2.9% OTM over spot $22.83 16 Oct 2026 (10d, $1.06 mid) = $2,075 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,225/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23.50) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $24.57) 73% EV / mo +$576 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,174/mo median; plan ~$1,478/mo after 68% keep · $7,970 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.9-3.4], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$302 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $28 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.34/sh now → $0.95 mid-life (likely $1.26–$1.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,046 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $24 (overshoots $0.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $23.50 is $12 below CC-SS $35.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $24.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,844 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $23.50): -$27,691 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,496 ($-1,846 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,796 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,700, the opportunity cost of earning $6,225/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $32.48 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,375, position total $-27,194 ($-544 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.822 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$25,844 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,796
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24.50 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.14 | 22/25 | $3,080 | $3,089 | 83% | 85% | +$593 | -$23,686 | 428.7% | $-24,610 (vs do-nothing $-22,814) |
| $24 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.14 | 22/25 | $3,080 | $3,089 | 76% | 80% | $-1,183 | -$24,786 | 448.6% | $-25,710 (vs do-nothing $-23,914) |
| $24.50 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.49 | 21/25 | $3,087 | $3,099 | 72% | 78% | +$264 | -$21,874 | 395.9% | $-22,838 (vs do-nothing $-21,042) |
| $25 | 24d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.99 | 25/25 | $3,094 | $3,094 | 70% | 77% | +$315 | -$23,541 | 426.1% | $-24,346 (vs do-nothing $-22,550) |
| $24.50 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.79 | 22/25 | $3,067 | $3,076 | 69% | 76% | +$313 | -$22,256 | 402.8% | $-23,180 (vs do-nothing $-21,384) |
| $24 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.64 | 16/25 | $3,072 | $3,099 | 67% | 75% | +$269 | -$17,226 | 311.8% | $-18,388 (vs do-nothing $-16,592) |
| $23.50 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.33 | 10/25 | $3,300 | $3,345 | 66% | 76% | +$89 | -$11,576 | 209.5% | $-12,976 (vs do-nothing $-11,180) |
| $24 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.96 | 18/25 | $3,049 | $3,070 | 65% | 75% | +$328 | -$18,803 | 340.3% | $-19,886 (vs do-nothing $-18,090) |
| $24 | 24d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.34 | 19/25 | $3,182 | $3,200 | 63% | 73% | +$363 | -$19,126 | 346.2% | $-20,169 (vs do-nothing $-18,373) |
| $23.50 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.83 | 13/25 | $3,237 | $3,273 | 61% | 73% | +$299 | -$14,399 | 260.6% | $-15,680 (vs do-nothing $-13,884) |
| $23.50 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.17 | 15/25 | $3,097 | $3,127 | 60% | 73% | +$369 | -$16,104 | 291.5% | $-17,306 (vs do-nothing $-15,510) |
| $23 | 24d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.59 | 16/25 | $3,180 | $3,207 | 56% | 70% | +$41 | -$17,306 | 313.2% | $-18,468 (vs do-nothing $-16,672) |
| $23 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.53 | 6/25 | $3,180 | $3,237 | 55% | 71% | +$130 | -$7,126 | 129.0% | $-8,684 (vs do-nothing $-6,888) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.38 | 13/25 | $3,166 | $3,202 | 55% | 70% | +$336 | -$14,334 | 259.4% | $-15,615 (vs do-nothing $-13,819) |
| $23 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.96 | 11/25 | $3,168 | $3,210 | 55% | 68% | +$2 | -$12,591 | 227.9% | $-13,951 (vs do-nothing $-12,155) |
| $22.50 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.62 | 11/25 | $3,145 | $3,187 | 50% | 68% | +$296 | -$12,415 | 224.7% | $-13,775 (vs do-nothing $-11,979) |
| $22.50 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.24 | 9/25 | $3,348 | $3,396 | 48% | 67% | +$95 | -$10,500 | 190.0% | $-11,939 (vs do-nothing $-10,143) |
| $22.50 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.79 | 4/25 | $3,160 | $3,223 | 44% | 64% | +$103 | -$4,847 | 87.7% | $-6,484 (vs do-nothing $-4,688) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.