25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $35.68 (banked floor $30.77) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,320/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $796/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-30,650 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $24C 9 Oct 2026 | U10001299 | $0.18 | $1,812 | 2026-10-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 9 Oct 2026 · 2d | 20 × $22.50 | 83% | $2,700 | $1,300 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 16 Oct 2026 · 9d | 18 × $22.50 | 72% | $2,760 | $-228 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $25 | 16 Oct | 9d | 18.5% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 13% | +6pp | $300 | $1,000 | -$1,700 | $26,399 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $25 18.5% OTM over spot $21.09 16 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.20 mid) = $300 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $25.20) 92% EV / mo +$423 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 49% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $658/mo median; plan ~$448/mo after 68% keep · $4,230 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.2-4.6], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,394 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $27 @ 74% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.52/sh now → $1.08 mid-life (likely $0.85–$1.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 321 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $26 (overshoots $0.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $11 below CC-SS $35.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $25.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.73 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,242 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $25): -$26,399 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,807 (+$2,843 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,225, the opportunity cost of earning $1,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.94 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-22,941 (+$7,709 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 14 × $22.50 | 9 Oct | 2d | 6.7% | 83%hist 87% | 35%hist 31% | +9pp | $126 | $1,890 | -$810 | $18,325 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $22.50 6.7% OTM over spot $21.09 9 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.17 mid) = $126 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,890/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $22.67) 85% EV / mo $-146 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,027/mo median; plan ~$698/mo after 68% keep · $5,689 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.3-4.2], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$923 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $24 @ 74% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.06/sh now → $0.75 mid-life (likely $0.85–$1.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 544 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $23 (overshoots $0.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $22.50 is $13 below CC-SS $35.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $22.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.73 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,242 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $22.50): -$18,325 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $30): -$6,237 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,970 (+$4,680 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,388, the opportunity cost of earning $1,890/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.94 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,290, position total $-26,220 (+$4,430 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $22.50 | 9 Oct | 2d | 6.7% | 83%hist 87% | 35%hist 31% | +10pp | $180 | $2,700 | — | $26,179 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $22.50 6.7% OTM over spot $21.09 9 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.17 mid) = $180 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $22.67) 85% EV / mo $-209 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,472/mo median; plan ~$1,001/mo after 68% keep · $6,988 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-4.0], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,319 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $24 @ 74% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.06/sh now → $0.75 mid-life (likely $0.82–$1.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 536 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $23 (overshoots $0.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $22.50 is $13 below CC-SS $35.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $22.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.73 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,242 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $22.50): -$26,179 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $30): -$2,835 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,422 (+$228 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,840, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.94 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,700, position total $-27,636 (+$3,014 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $21 | 9 Oct | 2d | -0.5% | 49% | 100%hist 90% | · | $390 | $5,850 | +$3,150 | $14,290 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $21 0.5% ITM over spot $21.09 9 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.72 mid) = $390 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,850/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $21) 49% Breach risk 51% POP (stays ≤ $21.71) 68% EV / mo $-1,894 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$282 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $25 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.95/sh now → $0.67 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $21 is $15 below CC-SS $35.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $21.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $21)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.73 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,242 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $21): -$14,290 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (15 × $30): -$8,504 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,202 (+$6,448 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,620, the opportunity cost of earning $5,850/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.94 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,550, position total $-26,476 (+$4,174 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $25 | 16 Oct | 9d | 18.5% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 13% | +6pp | $300 | $1,000 | -$1,760 | $26,399 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $25 18.5% OTM over spot $21.09 16 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.20 mid) = $300 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $25.20) 92% EV / mo +$423 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 49% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $658/mo median; plan ~$448/mo after 68% keep · $4,230 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.2-4.6], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,394 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $27 @ 74% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.52/sh now → $1.08 mid-life (likely $0.85–$1.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 321 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $26 (overshoots $0.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $25 is $11 below CC-SS $35.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $25.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.73 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,242 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $25): -$26,399 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,807 (+$2,843 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,225, the opportunity cost of earning $1,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.94 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-22,941 (+$7,709 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 24 × $23.50 | 16 Oct | 9d | 11.4% | 82%hist 87% | 36%hist 31% | +8pp | $528 | $1,760 | -$1,000 | $28,703 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $23.50 11.4% OTM over spot $21.09 16 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.26 mid) = $528 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,760/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $23.76) 85% EV / mo +$259 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $931/mo median; plan ~$633/mo after 68% keep · $6,050 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.6-5.1], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,804 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $25 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.37/sh now → $0.97 mid-life (likely $0.96–$1.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 819 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $24 (overshoots $0.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $23.50 is $12 below CC-SS $35.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $23.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.73 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,242 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $23.50): -$28,703 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $30): -$567 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,678 ($-28 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,096, the opportunity cost of earning $1,760/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.94 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,928, position total $-25,868 (+$4,782 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $22.50 | 16 Oct | 9d | 6.7% | 72%hist 83% | 58%hist 46% | +6pp | $828 | $2,760 | — | $22,895 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $22.50 6.7% OTM over spot $21.09 16 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.61 mid) = $828 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,760/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22.50) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $23.11) 79% EV / mo +$554 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,140/mo median; plan ~$775/mo after 68% keep · $7,110 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.5-4.1], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$799 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $26 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.28/sh now → $0.90 mid-life (likely $1.03–$1.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,387 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $23 (overshoots $0.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $22.50 is $13 below CC-SS $35.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.46 collected) or spot ≥ $23.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.73 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,242 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $22.50): -$22,895 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $30): -$3,969 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,272 (+$2,378 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,690, the opportunity cost of earning $2,760/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.94 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,564, position total $-26,498 (+$4,152 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 24 × $21.50 | 16 Oct | 9d | 1.9% | 59%hist 68% | 87%hist 79% | +12pp | $1,608 | $5,360 | +$2,600 | $32,423 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $21.50 1.9% OTM over spot $21.09 16 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.90 mid) = $1,608 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,360/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $21.50) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $22.40) 71% EV / mo $-146 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,627/mo median; plan ~$1,106/mo after 68% keep · $8,948 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.4-4.5], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 72% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$404 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $25 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.19/sh now → $0.84 mid-life (likely $1.14–$1.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,146 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $22 (overshoots $0.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $21.50 is $14 below CC-SS $35.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.67 collected) or spot ≥ $22.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.73 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,242 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $21.50): -$32,423 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $30): -$567 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,398 ($-3,748 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,816, the opportunity cost of earning $5,360/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.94 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,648, position total $-29,588 (+$1,062 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.802 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$29,242 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-15,582
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $22.50 | 2d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.09 | 20/25 | $2,700 | $2,709 | 83% | 85% | $-209 | -$26,179 | 473.8% | $-30,422 (vs do-nothing $-14,840) |
| $22 | 2d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.10 | 18/25 | $2,700 | $2,713 | 74% | 80% | $-2,039 | -$24,443 | 442.4% | $-29,820 (vs do-nothing $-14,238) |
| $22.50 | 9d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.46 | 18/25 | $2,760 | $2,773 | 72% | 79% | +$554 | -$22,895 | 414.4% | $-28,272 (vs do-nothing $-12,690) |
| $22.50 | 16d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.68 | 21/25 | $2,678 | $2,685 | 68% | 75% | $-32 | -$26,249 | 475.1% | $-29,925 (vs do-nothing $-14,343) |
| $22 | 9d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.55 | 15/25 | $2,750 | $2,769 | 66% | 75% | +$215 | -$19,694 | 356.5% | $-26,772 (vs do-nothing $-11,190) |
| $22 | 16d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.81 | 18/25 | $2,734 | $2,747 | 63% | 73% | $-121 | -$23,165 | 419.3% | $-28,542 (vs do-nothing $-12,960) |
| $21.50 | 2d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.12 | 15/25 | $2,700 | $2,719 | 62% | 74% | $-4,248 | -$21,089 | 381.7% | $-28,167 (vs do-nothing $-12,585) |
| $22 | 23d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.20 | 17/25 | $2,661 | $2,676 | 62% | 73% | +$170 | -$21,215 | 384.0% | $-27,159 (vs do-nothing $-11,577) |
| $21.50 | 9d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.67 | 12/25 | $2,680 | $2,704 | 59% | 71% | $-73 | -$16,211 | 293.4% | $-24,990 (vs do-nothing $-9,408) |
| $21.50 | 16d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.01 | 15/25 | $2,841 | $2,859 | 58% | 70% | $-64 | -$19,754 | 357.5% | $-26,832 (vs do-nothing $-11,250) |
| $21 | 23d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.55 | 14/25 | $2,830 | $2,851 | 53% | 69% | +$23 | -$18,381 | 332.7% | $-26,026 (vs do-nothing $-10,444) |
| $21 | 16d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.23 | 12/25 | $2,768 | $2,792 | 52% | 68% | $-49 | -$16,139 | 292.1% | $-24,918 (vs do-nothing $-9,336) |
| $21 | 9d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.84 | 10/25 | $2,800 | $2,828 | 51% | 66% | $-253 | -$13,840 | 250.5% | $-23,752 (vs do-nothing $-8,170) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $21 | 2d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.39 | 5/25 | $2,925 | $2,962 | 49% | 68% | $-947 | -$7,145 | 129.3% | $-19,892 (vs do-nothing $-4,310) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.