25 of 125 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $35.40 (banked floor $29.83) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $55,525 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,200/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $806/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-30,962 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $23C 9 Oct 2026 | U10001299 | $0.10 | $979 | 2026-10-08 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 16 Oct 2026 · 8d | 21 × $22 | 73% | $3,229 | $178 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $24 | 16 Oct | 8d | 16.4% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 24% | +2pp | $125 | $469 | -$2,760 | $28,383 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $24 16.4% OTM over spot $20.61 16 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.18 mid) = $125 credit for the 8d cycle → $469/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $24.18) 91% EV / mo $-267 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $295/mo median; plan ~$200/mo after 68% keep · $1,762 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.2-4.1], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,459 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $25 @ 72% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.46/sh now → $1.03 mid-life (likely $0.88–$1.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 401 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $25 (overshoots $0.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $24 is $11 below CC-SS $35.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $24.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.78 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,962 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,402 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $24): -$28,383 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,944 (+$1,018 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,044 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,900, the opportunity cost of earning $469/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.91 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,150, position total $-24,566 (+$6,396 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $22.50 | 16 Oct | 8d | 9.2% | 79%hist 83% | 44%hist 40% | +9pp | $570 | $2,138 | -$1,091 | $23,946 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $22.50 9.2% OTM over spot $20.61 16 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.38 mid) = $570 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,138/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $22.88) 82% EV / mo +$478 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,014/mo median; plan ~$690/mo after 68% keep · $6,342 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.3-5.2], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,195 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $25 @ 77% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.31/sh now → $0.93 mid-life (likely $0.98–$1.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 991 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $23 (overshoots $0.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $22.50 is $13 below CC-SS $35.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $22.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.78 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,962 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,402 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $22.50): -$23,946 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $30): -$3,236 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,743 (+$2,219 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,044 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,699, the opportunity cost of earning $2,138/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.91 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,009, position total $-26,419 (+$4,543 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 21 × $22 | 16 Oct | 8d | 6.7% | 73%hist 83% | 56%hist 46% | +12pp | $861 | $3,229 | — | $27,286 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $22 6.7% OTM over spot $20.61 16 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.46 mid) = $861 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,229/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $22.46) 78% EV / mo +$612 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,337/mo median; plan ~$909/mo after 68% keep · $8,424 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.4-4.9], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,018 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $25 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.27/sh now → $0.89 mid-life (likely $1.03–$1.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,245 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $23 (overshoots $0.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $22 is $13 below CC-SS $35.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $22.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.78 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,962 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,402 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $22): -$27,286 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $30): -$2,157 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,004 ($-42 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,044 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,960, the opportunity cost of earning $3,229/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.91 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,250, position total $-27,662 (+$3,300 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 23 × $21 | 16 Oct | 8d | 1.9% | 59%hist 68% | 86%hist 79% | +19pp | $1,725 | $6,469 | +$3,240 | $31,403 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $21 1.9% OTM over spot $20.61 16 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.86 mid) = $1,725 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,469/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $21) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $21.86) 71% EV / mo +$895 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +19pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,965/mo median; plan ~$1,336/mo after 68% keep · $10,372 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.4-4.9], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 70% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$182 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $27 @ 93% POP 93% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.17/sh now → $0.83 mid-life (likely $1.12–$1.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,085 simulated challenges: the $21 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $22 (overshoots $0.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $21 is $14 below CC-SS $35.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $21.86 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $21)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.78 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $35.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,962 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,402 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $21): -$31,403 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $30): -$1,079 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,042 ($-3,080 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,044 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,998, the opportunity cost of earning $6,469/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.91 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,268, position total $-29,682 (+$1,280 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.795 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$29,402 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-15,044
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $22 | 8d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.41 | 21/25 | $3,229 | $3,237 | 73% | 78% | +$612 | -$27,286 | 493.9% | $-31,004 (vs do-nothing $-15,960) |
| $22 | 15d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.76 | 21/25 | $3,192 | $3,200 | 68% | 77% | +$612 | -$26,551 | 480.6% | $-30,269 (vs do-nothing $-15,225) |
| $21.50 | 8d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.56 | 15/25 | $3,150 | $3,170 | 66% | 75% | +$519 | -$20,015 | 362.3% | $-26,969 (vs do-nothing $-11,925) |
| $21.50 | 15d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.94 | 17/25 | $3,196 | $3,212 | 63% | 75% | +$569 | -$22,038 | 398.9% | $-27,913 (vs do-nothing $-12,869) |
| $21 | 8d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.75 | 12/25 | $3,375 | $3,401 | 59% | 71% | +$467 | -$16,384 | 296.5% | $-24,956 (vs do-nothing $-9,912) |
| $21 | 15d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.13 | 14/25 | $3,164 | $3,186 | 58% | 71% | +$468 | -$18,583 | 336.3% | $-26,076 (vs do-nothing $-11,032) |
| $21 | 22d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.26 | 19/25 | $3,265 | $3,277 | 58% | 71% | +$52 | -$24,972 | 452.0% | $-29,769 (vs do-nothing $-14,725) |
| $20.50 | 15d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.35 | 12/25 | $3,240 | $3,266 | 52% | 70% | +$401 | -$16,264 | 294.4% | $-24,836 (vs do-nothing $-9,792) |
| $20.50 | 8d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.97 | 9/25 | $3,274 | $3,306 | 51% | 67% | +$327 | -$12,540 | 227.0% | $-22,730 (vs do-nothing $-7,686) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.