125 contracts (12,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.71 | CC-SS: $35.88 (banked floor $34.69) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $277,625 | (ND $2.21 + SW $20) x 12500 |
| Normal income ref | $31,023/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay โ $4,225/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-162,938 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Status | Leg | Credit/sh | Credit | Opened | Closed | Close/sh | Banked | Account | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXPIRED | 100x $23C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.10 | $979 | 2026-10-08 | 2026-10-12 | $0.00 | $979 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 50x $24C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.18 | $906 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.04 | $706 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $24C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.18 | $18 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $15 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $24C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.18 | $18 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $15 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $24C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.18 | $18 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.04 | $14 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $24C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.18 | $18 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $15 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 18x $24C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.18 | $326 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $272 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 14x $24C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.18 | $254 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.04 | $198 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 14x $24C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.18 | $254 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.04 | $198 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 41x $25C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.19 | $779 | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | $0.09 | $410 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 4x $25C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.19 | $76 | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | $0.12 | $28 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 14x $25C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.19 | $266 | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | $0.09 | $140 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 41x $25C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.19 | $779 | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | $0.09 | $410 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 30x $28C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.15 | $437 | 2026-10-05 | 2026-10-06 | $0.03 | $347 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 40x $28C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.15 | $583 | 2026-10-05 | 2026-10-06 | $0.03 | $463 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 30x $28C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.15 | $437 | 2026-10-05 | 2026-10-06 | $0.03 | $347 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| EXPIRED | 100x $26C 2 Oct 2026 | $0.26 | $2,631 | 2026-09-29 | 2026-10-05 | $0.00 | $2,631 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 100x $30C 16 Oct 2026 | $0.66 | $6,603 | 2026-09-25 | 2026-09-29 | $0.66 | $0 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 100x $32.5C 16 Oct 2026 | $0.34 | $3,431 | 2026-09-21 | 2026-09-25 | $0.34 | $0 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 100x $26.5C 25 Sep 2026 | $0.16 | $1,600 | 2026-09-18 | 2026-09-21 | $0.16 | $0 | U10001299 | execution |
| EXPIRED | 100x $30C 11 Sep 2026 | $0.13 | $1,258 | 2026-09-08 | 2026-09-14 | $0.00 | $1,258 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 50x $30C 28 Aug 2026 | $0.11 | $529 | 2026-08-24 | 2026-08-25 | $0.03 | $379 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 50x $30C 28 Aug 2026 | $0.11 | $529 | 2026-08-24 | 2026-08-25 | $0.03 | $379 | U10001299 | snapshot |
| EXPIRED | 100x $24C 21 Aug 2026 | $0.27 | $2,700 | 2026-08-14 | 2026-08-24 | $0.00 | $2,700 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 81x $26C 21 Aug 2026 | $0.14 | $1,134 | 2026-08-13 | 2026-08-14 | $0.09 | $405 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 19x $26C 21 Aug 2026 | $0.14 | $266 | 2026-08-13 | 2026-08-14 | $0.09 | $95 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 62x $27C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.12 | $744 | 2026-07-18 | 2026-07-20 | $0.19 | $-434 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 63x $27C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.12 | $756 | 2026-07-18 | 2026-07-20 | $0.19 | $-441 | U10001299 | execution |
| CLOSED | 50x $30C 17 Jul 2026 | $0.21 | $1,027 | 2026-07-11 | 2026-07-14 | $0.03 | $877 | U10001299 | seed |
| CLOSED | 50x $30C 17 Jul 2026 | $0.21 | $1,027 | 2026-07-11 | 2026-07-14 | $0.03 | $877 | U10001299 | seed |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 125 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 16 Oct 2026 · 4d | 109 × $22 | 82% | $15,532 | $4,866 |
| NEXT FRIDAY ⚡ | 23 Oct 2026 · 11d | 117 × $22 | 74% | $15,635 | $-1,314 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | ๐ก safe yield | 125 × $23 | 16 Oct | 4d | 13.2% | 91%hist 95% | 19%hist 14% | +6pp | $1,000 | $7,500 | -$8,032 | $159,958 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 125 ร $23 13.2% OTM over spot $20.31 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.11 mid) = $1,000 credit for the 4d cycle โ $7,500/mo projected Survival (stays โค $23) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays โค $23.11) 92% EV / mo +$2,801 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 40% whole by 9mo vs 35% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,937/mo median; plan ~$3,357/mo after 68% keep · $31,702 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [2.0-4.8], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,199 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $27 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 125 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.04/sh now โ $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.62โ$1.20) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 282 simulated challenges: the $23 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $24 (overshoots $0.57). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $23 is $13 below CC-SS $35.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot โฅ $23.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $23)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $35.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-162,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$153,526 โ CC assignment net of premium (125 ร $23): -$159,958 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-169,369 ($-6,432 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-57,744 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-111,625, the opportunity cost of earning $7,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $24.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,875, position total $-139,179 (+$23,759 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 72 × $22 | 16 Oct | 4d | 8.3% | 82%hist 86% | 37%hist 32% | +6pp | $1,368 | $10,260 | -$5,272 | $98,544 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 72 ร $22 8.3% OTM over spot $20.31 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.23 mid) = $1,368 credit for the 4d cycle โ $10,260/mo projected Survival (stays โค $22) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays โค $22.23) 85% EV / mo +$3,018 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 43% whole by 9mo vs 37% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,556/mo median; plan ~$3,778/mo after 68% keep · $39,395 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.8 mo [2.1-5.7], measured ONLY among the 43% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,565 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $26 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 72 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.97/sh now โ $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.70โ$1.22) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 726 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $23 (overshoots $0.55). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $22 is $14 below CC-SS $35.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot โฅ $22.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $35.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-162,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$153,526 โ CC assignment net of premium (72 ร $22): -$98,544 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (53 ร $32): -$20,493 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-128,448 (+$34,489 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-57,744 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-70,704, the opportunity cost of earning $10,260/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $24.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,128, position total $-138,379 (+$24,559 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | ๐ฏ 50% normal | 109 × $22 | 16 Oct | 4d | 8.3% | 82%hist 86% | 37%hist 32% | +12pp | $2,071 | $15,532 | — | $149,184 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 109 ร $22 8.3% OTM over spot $20.31 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.23 mid) = $2,071 credit for the 4d cycle โ $15,532/mo projected Survival (stays โค $22) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays โค $22.23) 85% EV / mo +$4,569 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 43% whole by 9mo vs 31% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,040/mo median; plan ~$5,467/mo after 68% keep · $56,528 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.7 mo [2.1-5.4], measured ONLY among the 43% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,397 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $26 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 109 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.97/sh now โ $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.71โ$1.23) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 736 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $23 (overshoots $0.57). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $22 is $14 below CC-SS $35.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot โฅ $22.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $35.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-162,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$153,526 โ CC assignment net of premium (109 ร $22): -$149,184 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (16 ร $32): -$6,187 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-164,782 ($-1,845 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-57,744 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-107,038, the opportunity cost of earning $15,532/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $24.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$24,416, position total $-146,704 (+$16,234 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 97 × $21 | 16 Oct | 4d | 3.4% | 66%hist 64% | 70%hist 57% | +14pp | $4,171 | $31,282 | +$15,750 | $140,132 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 97 ร $21 3.4% OTM over spot $20.31 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.48 mid) = $4,171 credit for the 4d cycle โ $31,282/mo projected Survival (stays โค $21) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays โค $21.48) 75% EV / mo +$6,091 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 32% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,802/mo median; plan ~$7,346/mo after 68% keep · $75,870 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.7 mo [2.0-5.5], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 49% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,999 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $26 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 97 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.90/sh now โ $0.64 mid-life (likely $0.79โ$1.26) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 1,477 simulated challenges: the $21 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $22 (overshoots $0.55). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $21 is $15 below CC-SS $35.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.43 collected) or spot โฅ $21.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $21)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $35.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-162,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$153,526 โ CC assignment net of premium (97 ร $21): -$140,132 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (28 ร $32): -$10,827 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-160,370 (+$2,567 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-57,744 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-102,626, the opportunity cost of earning $31,282/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $24.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,100, position total $-151,376 (+$11,562 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 122 × $22.50 | 23 Oct | 11d | 10.8% | 79%hist 82% | 44%hist 42% | +7pp | $3,782 | $10,315 | -$5,321 | $159,413 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 122 ร $22.50 10.8% OTM over spot $20.31 23 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.41 mid) = $3,782 credit for the 11d cycle โ $10,315/mo projected Survival (stays โค $22.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays โค $22.91) 82% EV / mo +$1,126 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 34% whole by 9mo vs 27% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,877/mo median; plan ~$3,317/mo after 68% keep · $37,832 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.9 mo [2.3-5.9], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,840 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $25 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 122 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.46/sh now โ $1.03 mid-life (likely $1.09โ$1.60) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 1,018 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $23 (overshoots $0.55). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $22.50 is $13 below CC-SS $35.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot โฅ $22.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $35.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-162,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$153,526 โ CC assignment net of premium (122 ร $22.50): -$159,413 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 ร $32): -$1,160 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-169,984 ($-7,047 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-57,744 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-112,240, the opportunity cost of earning $10,315/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $24.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,764, position total $-142,065 (+$20,873 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | ๐ฏ 50% normal | 117 × $22 | 23 Oct | 11d | 8.3% | 74%hist 82% | 54%hist 45% | +8pp | $5,733 | $15,635 | — | $156,623 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 117 ร $22 8.3% OTM over spot $20.31 23 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.64 mid) = $5,733 credit for the 11d cycle โ $15,635/mo projected Survival (stays โค $22) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays โค $22.64) 80% EV / mo +$3,685 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 39% whole by 9mo vs 31% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,443/mo median; plan ~$4,381/mo after 68% keep · $49,448 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.8 mo [2.8-5.7], measured ONLY among the 39% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,931 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $25 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 117 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.41/sh now โ $1.00 mid-life (likely $1.13โ$1.59) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 1,248 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $23 (overshoots $0.52). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $22 is $14 below CC-SS $35.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot โฅ $22.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $35.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-162,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$153,526 โ CC assignment net of premium (117 ร $22): -$156,623 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 ร $32): -$3,093 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-169,128 ($-6,191 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-57,744 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-111,384, the opportunity cost of earning $15,635/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $24.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$22,698, position total $-144,994 (+$17,944 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 100 × $20 | 23 Oct | 11d | -1.5% | 48% | 100%hist 90% | · | $11,400 | $31,091 | +$15,455 | $147,366 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 100 ร $20 1.5% ITM over spot $20.31 23 Oct 2026 (11d, $1.26 mid) = $11,400 credit for the 11d cycle โ $31,091/mo projected Survival (stays โค $20) 48% Breach risk 52% POP (stays โค $21.27) 66% EV / mo +$948 ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$2,869 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $25 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.21/sh now โ $0.85 mid-life โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $20 is $16 below CC-SS $35.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.14 collected) or spot โฅ $21.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $26.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $35.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-162,938 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$153,526 โ CC assignment net of premium (100 ร $20): -$147,366 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (25 ร $32): -$9,667 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-166,444 ($-3,507 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-57,744 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-108,700, the opportunity cost of earning $31,091/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $24.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,900, position total $-155,179 (+$7,758 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary ๐ฏ is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.789 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$153,526 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-57,744
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $22 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.19 | 109/125 | $2,071 | $15,532 | $15,559 | 82%hist 86% | 37%hist 32% | 85% | +$4,569 | -$149,184 | 540.0% | 4.8mo | $-164,782 (vs do-nothing $-107,038) |
| $21.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.29 | 72/125 | $2,088 | $15,660 | $15,748 | 75%hist 82% | 52%hist 45% | 80% | +$3,873 | -$101,424 | 367.1% | 3.3mo | $-131,328 (vs do-nothing $-73,584) |
| $22 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.49 | 117/125 | $5,733 | $15,635 | $15,649 | 74%hist 82% | 54%hist 45% | 80% | +$3,685 | -$156,623 | 567.0% | 5.0mo | $-169,128 (vs do-nothing $-111,384) |
| $21.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.56 | 102/125 | $5,712 | $15,578 | $15,617 | 68%hist 64% | 66%hist 57% | 77% | +$1,621 | -$140,929 | 510.2% | 4.5mo | $-159,234 (vs do-nothing $-101,490) |
| $21 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.43 | 49/125 | $2,107 | $15,802 | $15,929 | 66%hist 64% | 70%hist 57% | 75% | +$3,077 | -$70,788 | 256.2% | 2.3mo | $-109,586 (vs do-nothing $-51,842) |
| $21.50 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.81 | 115/125 | $9,315 | $15,525 | $15,542 | 66%hist 64% | 73%hist 69% | 75% | +$1,196 | -$156,016 | 564.8% | 5.0mo | $-169,294 (vs do-nothing $-111,550) |
| $21 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.80 | 72/125 | $5,760 | $15,709 | $15,797 | 62%hist 64% | 80%hist 69% | 73% | +$2,691 | -$101,352 | 366.9% | 3.3mo | $-131,256 (vs do-nothing $-73,512) |
| $21 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.97 | 96/125 | $9,312 | $15,520 | $15,568 | 61%hist 64% | 84%hist 79% | 72% | +$648 | -$133,503 | 483.3% | 4.3mo | $-154,128 (vs do-nothing $-96,384) |
| $21 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.16 | 112/125 | $12,992 | $15,590 | $15,612 | 60%hist 64% | 86%hist 79% | 72% | +$38 | -$153,626 | 556.1% | 5.0mo | $-168,064 (vs do-nothing $-110,320) |
| $20.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.61 | 34/125 | $2,074 | $15,555 | $15,707 | 56%hist 67% | 91%hist 90% | 70% | +$2,040 | -$50,206 | 181.7% | 1.6mo | $-94,804 (vs do-nothing $-37,060) |
| $20.50 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.18 | 79/125 | $9,322 | $15,537 | $15,613 | 56%hist 67% | 95%hist 90% | 69% | +$452 | -$112,153 | 406.0% | 3.6mo | $-139,351 (vs do-nothing $-81,607) |
| $20.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.91 | 63/125 | $5,733 | $15,635 | $15,739 | 55%hist 67% | 94%hist 90% | 69% | +$808 | -$91,140 | 329.9% | 2.9mo | $-124,524 (vs do-nothing $-66,780) |
| $20 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.55 | 84/125 | $13,020 | $15,624 | $15,692 | 51%hist 67% | 100%hist 90% | 68% | $-517 | -$120,344 | 435.6% | 3.9mo | $-145,608 (vs do-nothing $-87,864) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.42 | 66/125 | $9,372 | $15,620 | $15,718 | 50%hist 67% | 100%hist 90% | 67% | +$248 | -$95,414 | 345.4% | 3.1mo | $-127,638 (vs do-nothing $-69,894) |
| $20 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.14 | 50/125 | $5,700 | $15,545 | $15,670 | 48% | 100%hist 90% | 66% | +$474 | -$73,683 | 266.7% | 2.4mo | $-112,094 (vs do-nothing $-54,350) |
| $20 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.85 | 25/125 | $2,125 | $15,938 | $16,104 | 45% | 100%hist 90% | 65% | +$1,351 | -$37,567 | 136.0% | 1.2mo | $-85,644 (vs do-nothing $-27,900) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS | Why not eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 125/125 | $125 | $938 | $938 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | +$759 | -$104,583 | 378.6% | 3.4mo | $-113,994 (vs do-nothing $-56,250) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $25 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 125/125 | $125 | $938 | $938 | 97%hist 95% | 6%hist 4% | 97% | $-40 | -$135,833 | 491.7% | 4.4mo | $-145,244 (vs do-nothing $-87,500) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $24.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 125/125 | $125 | $938 | $938 | 96%hist 95% | 7%hist 4% | 97% | $-418 | -$142,083 | 514.3% | 4.6mo | $-151,494 (vs do-nothing $-93,750) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $32 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 125/125 | $125 | $208 | $208 | 96%hist 95% | 8%hist 4% | 96% | $-1,023 | -$48,333 | 175.0% | 1.6mo | $-57,744 (vs do-nothing $-0) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $28 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.02 | 125/125 | $250 | $417 | $417 | 96%hist 95% | 9%hist 4% | 96% | $-506 | -$98,208 | 355.5% | 3.2mo | $-107,619 (vs do-nothing $-49,875) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $23.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.05 | 125/125 | $625 | $4,688 | $4,688 | 94%hist 95% | 13%hist 14% | 94% | +$1,719 | -$154,083 | 557.8% | 5.0mo | $-163,494 (vs do-nothing $-105,750) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $27 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.07 | 125/125 | $875 | $1,050 | $1,050 | 93%hist 95% | 15%hist 14% | 93% | $-457 | -$110,083 | 398.5% | 3.5mo | $-119,494 (vs do-nothing $-61,750) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $24.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 125/125 | $125 | $341 | $341 | 92%hist 95% | 17%hist 14% | 92% | $-2,180 | -$142,083 | 514.3% | 4.6mo | $-151,494 (vs do-nothing $-93,750) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $26 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 125/125 | $125 | $208 | $208 | 91%hist 95% | 18%hist 14% | 92% | $-2,184 | -$123,333 | 446.5% | 4.0mo | $-132,744 (vs do-nothing $-75,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $23 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.08 | 125/125 | $1,000 | $7,500 | $7,500 | 91%hist 95% | 19%hist 14% | 92% | +$2,801 | -$159,958 | 579.0% | 5.2mo | $-169,369 (vs do-nothing $-111,625) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $25.50 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.04 | 125/125 | $500 | $833 | $833 | 91%hist 95% | 20%hist 14% | 91% | $-1,697 | -$129,208 | 467.7% | 4.2mo | $-138,619 (vs do-nothing $-80,875) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $25 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.12 | 125/125 | $1,500 | $2,500 | $2,500 | 90%hist 86% | 21%hist 24% | 91% | $-32 | -$134,458 | 486.7% | 4.3mo | $-143,869 (vs do-nothing $-86,125) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $26 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.19 | 125/125 | $2,375 | $2,850 | $2,850 | 90%hist 86% | 21%hist 24% | 91% | +$468 | -$121,083 | 438.3% | 3.9mo | $-130,494 (vs do-nothing $-72,750) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $24 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.04 | 125/125 | $500 | $1,364 | $1,364 | 89%hist 86% | 22%hist 24% | 90% | $-2,186 | -$147,958 | 535.6% | 4.8mo | $-157,369 (vs do-nothing $-99,625) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $22.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.08 | 125/125 | $1,000 | $7,500 | $7,500 | 87%hist 86% | 26%hist 24% | 89% | $-151 | -$166,208 | 601.7% | 5.4mo | $-175,619 (vs do-nothing $-117,875) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $24.50 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.14 | 125/125 | $1,750 | $2,917 | $2,917 | 87%hist 86% | 28%hist 24% | 88% | $-1,022 | -$140,458 | 508.4% | 4.5mo | $-149,869 (vs do-nothing $-92,125) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $23.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.09 | 125/125 | $1,125 | $3,068 | $3,068 | 86%hist 86% | 28%hist 24% | 88% | $-1,890 | -$153,583 | 556.0% | 5.0mo | $-162,994 (vs do-nothing $-105,250) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $25 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.30 | 125/125 | $3,750 | $4,500 | $4,500 | 86%hist 86% | 29%hist 24% | 88% | +$802 | -$132,208 | 478.6% | 4.3mo | $-141,619 (vs do-nothing $-83,875) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $24 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.22 | 125/125 | $2,750 | $4,583 | $4,583 | 85%hist 86% | 33%hist 32% | 86% | $-362 | -$145,708 | 527.4% | 4.7mo | $-155,119 (vs do-nothing $-97,375) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $23 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.27 | 125/125 | $3,375 | $9,205 | $9,205 | 83%hist 86% | 36%hist 32% | 85% | +$2,339 | -$157,583 | 570.4% | 5.1mo | $-166,994 (vs do-nothing $-109,250) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $23.50 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.29 | 125/125 | $3,625 | $6,042 | $6,042 | 82%hist 86% | 39%hist 32% | 85% | $-185 | -$151,083 | 546.9% | 4.9mo | $-160,494 (vs do-nothing $-102,750) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $24 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.47 | 125/125 | $5,875 | $7,050 | $7,050 | 81%hist 86% | 39%hist 32% | 85% | +$1,420 | -$142,583 | 516.1% | 4.6mo | $-151,994 (vs do-nothing $-94,250) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $22.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.31 | 125/125 | $3,875 | $10,568 | $10,568 | 79%hist 82% | 44%hist 42% | 82% | +$1,154 | -$163,333 | 591.2% | 5.3mo | $-172,744 (vs do-nothing $-115,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $23 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.45 | 125/125 | $5,625 | $9,375 | $9,375 | 78%hist 82% | 45%hist 42% | 82% | +$1,523 | -$155,333 | 562.3% | 5.0mo | $-164,744 (vs do-nothing $-107,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $23 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.70 | 125/125 | $8,750 | $10,500 | $10,500 | 76%hist 82% | 52%hist 45% | 81% | +$2,109 | -$152,208 | 551.0% | 4.9mo | $-161,619 (vs do-nothing $-103,875) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $22.50 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.53 | 125/125 | $6,625 | $11,042 | $11,042 | 75%hist 82% | 53%hist 45% | 80% | +$1,145 | -$160,583 | 581.3% | 5.2mo | $-169,994 (vs do-nothing $-112,250) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $22 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.66 | 125/125 | $8,250 | $13,750 | $13,750 | 71%hist 82% | 63%hist 57% | 77% | +$1,306 | -$165,208 | 598.0% | 5.3mo | $-174,619 (vs do-nothing $-116,875) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $22 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.82 | 125/125 | $10,250 | $12,300 | $12,300 | 69%hist 64% | 68%hist 57% | 76% | +$81 | -$163,208 | 590.8% | 5.3mo | $-172,619 (vs do-nothing $-114,875) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 125 contracts at the conservative CC.