GOOG-LC300 @ $342.33 UNDERWATER $30.67 (8.2% below BE SS)
15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $345.80 (banked floor $322.37) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
LC: $300 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $90.498/sh)
SP: $345 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.446/sh)
HP: $310 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $39.964/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $162,000 | (ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500 |
| Normal income ref | $17,743/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,884/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-3,712 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,871/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$17,743/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
6.2 mo to earn back $109,500
ML VELOCITY
9.1 mo to earn back $162,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $345.80 (probe: $345C 14d) still earns $18,321/mo (103% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-07
$28,903
Hole (after banked)
$0
was $3,712 · 779% earned back
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$345.80 → $322.37
? 6 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|
| 15x $365C 4 Sep 2026 | U13190865 | $1.74 | $2,616 | 2026-08-25 |
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 31 (live) · RSI 51 · MACD bearish, hist rising
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 46 · %B 39 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $397.08 (+16%) · daily UBB $364.56 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $345.80 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 15 × $350 25 Sep 2026 (28d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $350)
63%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $11.23/sh now → $7.94 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 15 × $355 4 Sep 2026 (7d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $355)
85%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.46/sh now → $3.86 mid-life (likely $3.65–$5.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 653 simulated challenges: the $355 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $358 (overshoots $2.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$355 | 11 Sep 2026 | 10d left | +$1.93/sh | +$2,902 cycle +$4,687 [+$2,298…+$3,630] · 100% credit | 66% surv 51% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$363 | 25 Sep 2026 | 24d left | +$2.16/sh | +$3,239 cycle +$5,024 [+$1,956…+$3,981] · 96% credit | 73% surv 64% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$358 | 11 Sep 2026 | 10d left | +$0.78/sh | +$1,177 cycle +$2,962 [+$291…+$1,781] · 84% credit | 70% surv 58% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$368 | 25 Sep 2026 | 24d left | +$0.40/sh | +$596 cycle +$2,381 [-$1,144…+$1,179] · 49% credit | 78% surv 72% |
| SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$373 | 25 Sep 2026 | 24d left | -$0.49/sh | -$731 cycle +$1,054 [-$2,694…-$278] · 20% credit | 82% surv 78% |
| budget: banked $1,785 debit $731 (41% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,054 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $6,330/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 15 × $365 11 Sep 2026 (14d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $365)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.99/sh now → $5.65 mid-life (likely $4.85–$7.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 475 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 14, at $368 (overshoots $2.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$365 | 18 Sep 2026 | 14d left | +$1.36/sh | +$2,047 cycle +$3,292 [+$1,767…+$3,300] · 100% credit | 67% surv 51% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$368 | 25 Sep 2026 | 21d left | +$1.71/sh | +$2,564 cycle +$3,809 [+$1,926…+$3,938] · 100% credit | 70% surv 56% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$368 | 18 Sep 2026 | 14d left | +$0.09/sh | +$134 cycle +$1,379 [-$479…+$1,109] · 59% credit | 70% surv 57% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$368 | 18 Sep 2026 | 14d left | +$0.09/sh | +$134 cycle +$1,379 [-$479…+$1,109] · 59% credit | 70% surv 57% |
| SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$373 | 25 Sep 2026 | 21d left | -$0.45/sh | -$679 cycle +$566 [-$1,837…+$422] · 29% credit | 74% surv 65% |
| budget: banked $1,245 debit $679 (55% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$566 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $11,141/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (12 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.853 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,442 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,225
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $350 | 7d | 4 Sep 2026 | $2.20 | 10/15 | $9,429 | $9,782 | 74% | 80% | +$3,484 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,095 (vs do-nothing +$1,870) |
| $350 | 14d | 11 Sep 2026 | $3.80 | 11/15 | $8,957 | $9,240 | 68% | 76% | +$2,586 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,042 (vs do-nothing +$3,817) |
| $350 | 21d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.80 | 11/15 | $9,114 | $9,397 | 65% | 74% | +$2,697 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,242 (vs do-nothing +$6,017) |
| $350 | 28d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.85 | 13/15 | $9,541 | $9,682 | 63% | 73% | +$2,161 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,701 (vs do-nothing +$8,476) |
| $345 | 7d | 4 Sep 2026 | $3.90 | 6/15 | $10,029 | $10,665 | 59% | 71% | +$2,375 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,886 (vs do-nothing +$1,661) |
| $345 | 14d | 11 Sep 2026 | $5.70 | 8/15 | $9,771 | $10,266 | 57% | 70% | +$1,771 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,879 (vs do-nothing +$3,654) |
| $345 | 21d | 18 Sep 2026 | $7.70 | 9/15 | $9,900 | $10,324 | 56% | 70% | +$2,216 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,136 (vs do-nothing +$5,911) |
| $345 | 28d | 25 Sep 2026 | $9.15 | 10/15 | $9,804 | $10,157 | 56% | 70% | +$2,213 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,243 (vs do-nothing +$8,018) |
| $340 | 28d | 25 Sep 2026 | $11.50 | 8/15 | $9,857 | $10,352 | 48% | 66% | +$1,707 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,519 (vs do-nothing +$4,294) |
| $340 | 21d | 18 Sep 2026 | $10.10 | 7/15 | $10,100 | $10,666 | 47% | 66% | +$1,720 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,002 (vs do-nothing +$2,778) |
| $340 | 14d | 11 Sep 2026 | $7.85 | 6/15 | $10,093 | $10,729 | 46% | 64% | +$962 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,256 (vs do-nothing +$1,031) |
| $340 | 7d | 4 Sep 2026 | $6.40 | 4/15 | $10,971 | $11,749 | 43% | 64% | +$1,689 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,332 (vs do-nothing +$107) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.