15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $355.77 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $162,000 | (ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500 |
| Normal income ref | $30,987/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,639/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $23,663 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15x $375C 10 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $1.85 | $2,779 | 2026-07-07 |
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 15 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 15 × $367.50 | 76% | $16,256 | $4,682 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 13 × $385 | 17 Jul | 8d | 8.2% | 95% | 10% | $715 | $2,681 | -$13,575 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $385 8.2% OTM over spot $355.77 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.58 mid) = $715 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,681/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $385) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $385.58) 95% EV / mo +$1,819 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,764 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $392 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.14/sh now → $5.75 mid-life (likely $4.39–$7.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 189 simulated challenges: the $385 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $389 (overshoots $3.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $385 is at/above CC-SS $355.77: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $385.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $385)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $355.77, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $23,663 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $385): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $372.50): +$860 Total Position P&L @ SS: $24,523 (+$860 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $30,113 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,590, the opportunity cost of earning $2,681/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 15 × $380 | 17 Jul | 8d | 6.8% | 92% | 17% | $1,410 | $5,288 | -$10,969 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $380 6.8% OTM over spot $355.77 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.95 mid) = $1,410 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,288/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $380) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $380.95) 92% EV / mo +$3,323 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,108 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $389 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.03/sh now → $5.68 mid-life (likely $4.60–$7.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 337 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $383 (overshoots $3.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $380 is at/above CC-SS $355.77: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.94 collected) or spot ≥ $380.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $380)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $355.77, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $23,663 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $380): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $23,663 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $30,113 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,450, the opportunity cost of earning $5,288/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 15 × $372.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 4.7% | 84% | 33% | $2,775 | $10,406 | -$5,850 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $372.50 4.7% OTM over spot $355.77 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.91 mid) = $2,775 credit for the 8d cycle → $10,406/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $372.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $374.40) 86% EV / mo +$5,163 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,575 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $387 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.87/sh now → $5.57 mid-life (likely $5.36–$8.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 726 simulated challenges: the $372 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $376 (overshoots $3.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $372.50 is at/above CC-SS $355.77: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.46/sh (~25% of the $1.85 collected) or spot ≥ $374.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $372)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $355.77, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $23,663 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $372.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $23,663 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $30,113 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,450, the opportunity cost of earning $10,406/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 15 × $367.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 3.3% | 76% | 37% | $4,335 | $16,256 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $367.50 3.3% OTM over spot $355.77 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.95 mid) = $4,335 credit for the 8d cycle → $16,256/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $367.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $370.44) 81% EV / mo +$6,639 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,903 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $384 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.77/sh now → $5.49 mid-life (likely $5.92–$8.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.89/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,124 simulated challenges: the $368 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $371 (overshoots $3.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $367.50 is at/above CC-SS $355.77: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.72/sh (~25% of the $2.89 collected) or spot ≥ $370.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $368)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $355.77, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $23,663 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $367.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $23,663 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $30,113 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,450, the opportunity cost of earning $16,256/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 13 × $357.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 0.5% | 55% | 92% | $8,450 | $31,688 | +$15,431 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $357.50 0.5% OTM over spot $355.77 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $6.58 mid) = $8,450 credit for the 8d cycle → $31,688/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $357.50) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $364.07) 70% EV / mo +$7,917 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 74% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,505 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $387 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.56/sh now → $5.34 mid-life (likely $7.32–$10.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,218 simulated challenges: the $358 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $361 (overshoots $3.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $357.50 is at/above CC-SS $355.77: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.62/sh (~25% of the $6.50 collected) or spot ≥ $364.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $358)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $355.77, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $23,663 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $357.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $372.50): +$860 Total Position P&L @ SS: $24,523 (+$860 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $30,113 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,590, the opportunity cost of earning $31,688/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.860 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $30,113
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $367.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.89 | 15/15 | $16,256 | $13,617 | 76% | 81% | +$6,639 | -$0 | 0.0% | $27,998 (vs do-nothing $-2,115) |
| $370 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 15/15 | $15,600 | $12,961 | 72% | 79% | +$5,742 | -$0 | 0.0% | $31,463 (vs do-nothing +$1,350) |
| $365 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 12/15 | $15,750 | $15,691 | 72% | 78% | +$5,526 | -$0 | 0.0% | $29,153 (vs do-nothing $-960) |
| $367.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.80 | 14/15 | $16,240 | $14,461 | 69% | 77% | +$5,187 | -$0 | 0.0% | $32,213 (vs do-nothing +$2,100) |
| $362.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 10/15 | $16,312 | $17,973 | 66% | 75% | +$5,152 | -$0 | 0.0% | $30,163 (vs do-nothing +$50) |
| $365 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 12/15 | $15,840 | $15,781 | 66% | 75% | +$4,535 | -$0 | 0.0% | $32,873 (vs do-nothing +$2,760) |
| $362.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.40 | 11/15 | $16,280 | $17,081 | 62% | 73% | +$4,001 | -$0 | 0.0% | $33,523 (vs do-nothing +$3,410) |
| $360 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 8/15 | $16,200 | $19,581 | 61% | 72% | +$4,681 | -$0 | 0.0% | $30,993 (vs do-nothing +$880) |
| $357.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 7/15 | $17,062 | $21,303 | 55% | 70% | +$4,263 | -$0 | 0.0% | $31,653 (vs do-nothing +$1,540) |
| $357.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.85 | 8/15 | $15,760 | $19,141 | 54% | 69% | +$3,489 | -$0 | 0.0% | $34,553 (vs do-nothing +$4,440) |
| $355 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.10 | 7/15 | $15,540 | $19,781 | 50% | 68% | +$3,089 | -$0 | 0.0% | $34,333 (vs do-nothing +$4,220) |
| $355 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.65 | 6/15 | $17,212 | $22,313 | 49% | 67% | +$3,503 | -$0 | 0.0% | $31,660 (vs do-nothing +$1,547) |
| $352.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.05 | 7/15 | $16,870 | $21,111 | 46% | 65% | +$2,537 | -$0 | 0.0% | $33,248 (vs do-nothing +$3,135) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $352.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $9.00 | 5/15 | $16,875 | $22,836 | 43% | 64% | +$2,828 | -$0 | 0.0% | $30,827 (vs do-nothing +$715) |
| $350 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.40 | 6/15 | $16,080 | $21,181 | 42% | 64% | +$2,037 | -$0 | 0.0% | $32,110 (vs do-nothing +$1,997) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.