15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $353.50 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $162,000 | (ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500 |
| Normal income ref | $39,000/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,848/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $20,663 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15x $375C 10 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $1.85 | $2,779 | 2026-07-07 |
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 15 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 13 × $360 | 62% | $20,962 | $3,062 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 11 × $380 | 17 Jul | 8d | 7.5% | 92% | 16% | $792 | $2,970 | -$17,992 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 11 × $380 7.5% OTM over spot $353.50 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.77 mid) = $792 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,970/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $380) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $380.77) 93% EV / mo +$1,553 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,044 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $392 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.79/sh now → $6.21 mid-life (likely $5.77–$9.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 578 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $385 (overshoots $5.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $380 is at/above CC-SS $353.50: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.72 collected) or spot ≥ $380.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $380)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $20,663 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (11 × $380): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $372.50): +$2,160 Total Position P&L @ SS: $22,823 (+$2,160 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $28,763 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,940, the opportunity cost of earning $2,970/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 15 × $380 | 17 Jul | 8d | 7.5% | 92% | 16% | $1,080 | $4,050 | -$16,912 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $380 7.5% OTM over spot $353.50 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.77 mid) = $1,080 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,050/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $380) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $380.77) 93% EV / mo +$2,118 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,242 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $392 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.79/sh now → $6.21 mid-life (likely $5.80–$9.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 621 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $385 (overshoots $5.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $380 is at/above CC-SS $353.50: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.72 collected) or spot ≥ $380.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $380)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $20,663 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $380): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $20,663 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $28,763 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,100, the opportunity cost of earning $4,050/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 15 × $367.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 4.0% | 73% | 55% | $3,510 | $13,162 | -$7,800 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $367.50 4.0% OTM over spot $353.50 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.48 mid) = $3,510 credit for the 8d cycle → $13,162/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $367.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $369.99) 76% EV / mo $-4,156 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,506 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $389 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.50/sh now → $6.01 mid-life (likely $6.81–$10.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,284 simulated challenges: the $368 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $373 (overshoots $5.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $367.50 is at/above CC-SS $353.50: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.58/sh (~25% of the $2.34 collected) or spot ≥ $369.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $368)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $20,663 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $367.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $20,663 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $28,763 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,100, the opportunity cost of earning $13,162/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 13 × $360 | 17 Jul | 8d | 1.8% | 62% | 62% | $5,590 | $20,962 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $360 1.8% OTM over spot $353.50 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $4.62 mid) = $5,590 credit for the 8d cycle → $20,962/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $360) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $364.62) 69% EV / mo $-5,031 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,064 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $392 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.33/sh now → $5.89 mid-life (likely $7.70–$10.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,871 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $365 (overshoots $5.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $360 is at/above CC-SS $353.50: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.07/sh (~25% of the $4.30 collected) or spot ≥ $364.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $20,663 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $360): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $372.50): +$1,080 Total Position P&L @ SS: $21,743 (+$1,080 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $28,763 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,020, the opportunity cost of earning $20,962/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 14 × $352.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | -0.3% | 50% | 99+% | $10,780 | $40,425 | +$19,462 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $352.50 0.3% ITM over spot $353.50 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $8.15 mid) = $10,780 credit for the 8d cycle → $40,425/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 50% Breach risk 50% POP (stays ≤ $360.65) 63% EV / mo $-4,715 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$2,709 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $390 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.15/sh now → $5.77 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $352.50 is at/above CC-SS $353.50: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.93/sh (~25% of the $7.70 collected) or spot ≥ $360.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $20,663 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $352.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $372.50): +$540 Total Position P&L @ SS: $21,203 (+$540 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $28,763 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,560, the opportunity cost of earning $40,425/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 13 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $28,763
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $367.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.10 | 14/15 | $19,880 | $18,112 | 68% | 76% | +$4,279 | -$0 | 0.0% | $31,143 (vs do-nothing +$2,380) |
| $365 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.90 | 13/15 | $20,540 | $19,852 | 65% | 74% | +$3,955 | -$0 | 0.0% | $32,013 (vs do-nothing +$3,250) |
| $362.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.90 | 11/15 | $19,580 | $21,052 | 62% | 73% | +$3,592 | -$0 | 0.0% | $32,613 (vs do-nothing +$3,850) |
| $360 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 13/15 | $20,962 | $20,275 | 62% | 69% | $-5,031 | -$0 | 0.0% | $27,333 (vs do-nothing $-1,430) |
| $357.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 10/15 | $19,500 | $22,052 | 58% | 67% | $-4,130 | -$0 | 0.0% | $28,563 (vs do-nothing $-200) |
| $357.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.05 | 9/15 | $19,890 | $23,522 | 57% | 70% | +$3,151 | -$0 | 0.0% | $33,848 (vs do-nothing +$5,085) |
| $355 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.40 | 9/15 | $21,600 | $25,232 | 54% | 65% | $-3,338 | -$0 | 0.0% | $29,663 (vs do-nothing +$900) |
| $355 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.30 | 8/15 | $19,680 | $24,392 | 54% | 69% | +$2,965 | -$0 | 0.0% | $34,283 (vs do-nothing +$5,520) |
| $352.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.00 | 7/15 | $19,600 | $25,392 | 51% | 67% | +$3,243 | -$0 | 0.0% | $34,083 (vs do-nothing +$5,320) |
| $352.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.70 | 7/15 | $20,212 | $26,005 | 50% | 63% | $-2,358 | -$0 | 0.0% | $29,673 (vs do-nothing +$910) |
| $350 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $15.00 | 7/15 | $21,000 | $26,792 | 48% | 66% | +$2,787 | -$0 | 0.0% | $33,033 (vs do-nothing +$4,270) |
| $347.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $16.40 | 6/15 | $19,680 | $26,552 | 44% | 65% | +$2,574 | -$0 | 0.0% | $31,763 (vs do-nothing +$3,000) |
| $347.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $10.80 | 5/15 | $20,250 | $28,202 | 41% | 60% | $-1,097 | -$0 | 0.0% | $28,463 (vs do-nothing $-300) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.