15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $352.38 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $162,000 | (ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500 |
| Normal income ref | $41,786/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,720/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $18,413 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15x $375C 10 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $1.85 | $2,779 | 2026-07-07 |
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 15 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 14 × $360 | 69% | $21,600 | $6,865 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 13 × $380 | 17 Jul | 7d | 7.8% | 95% | 10% | $663 | $2,841 | -$18,759 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $380 7.8% OTM over spot $352.38 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.53 mid) = $663 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,841/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $380) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $380.53) 95% EV / mo +$1,984 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,343 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $403 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.62/sh now → $5.39 mid-life (likely $4.04–$6.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 156 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $383 (overshoots $3.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $380 is at/above CC-SS $352.38: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.51 collected) or spot ≥ $380.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $380)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $352.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $18,413 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $380): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $372.50): +$1,100 Total Position P&L @ SS: $19,513 (+$1,100 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $26,663 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,150, the opportunity cost of earning $2,841/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 15 × $375 | 17 Jul | 7d | 6.4% | 92% | 17% | $1,275 | $5,464 | -$16,136 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $375 6.4% OTM over spot $352.38 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.88 mid) = $1,275 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,464/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $375) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $375.88) 93% EV / mo +$3,406 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,702 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $393 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.52/sh now → $5.32 mid-life (likely $4.43–$7.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 312 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $379 (overshoots $3.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $375 is at/above CC-SS $352.38: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $375.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $375)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $352.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $18,413 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $375): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $18,413 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $26,663 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,250, the opportunity cost of earning $5,464/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 15 × $365 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.6% | 79% | 42% | $3,405 | $14,593 | -$7,007 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $365 3.6% OTM over spot $352.38 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.33 mid) = $3,405 credit for the 7d cycle → $14,593/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $365) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $367.33) 83% EV / mo +$6,474 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,360 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $398 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.32/sh now → $5.18 mid-life (likely $5.10–$8.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 886 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $368 (overshoots $3.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $365 is at/above CC-SS $352.38: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.57/sh (~25% of the $2.27 collected) or spot ≥ $367.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $365)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $352.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $18,413 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $365): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $18,413 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $26,663 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,250, the opportunity cost of earning $14,593/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 14 × $360 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.2% | 69% | 48% | $5,040 | $21,600 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $360 2.2% OTM over spot $352.38 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.75 mid) = $5,040 credit for the 7d cycle → $21,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $360) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $363.75) 77% EV / mo +$7,604 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 48% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,108 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $403 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.22/sh now → $5.11 mid-life (likely $5.99–$8.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,443 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $363 (overshoots $3.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $360 is at/above CC-SS $352.38: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.90/sh (~25% of the $3.60 collected) or spot ≥ $363.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $352.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $18,413 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $360): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $372.50): +$550 Total Position P&L @ SS: $18,963 (+$550 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $26,663 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,700, the opportunity cost of earning $21,600/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 15 × $352.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 0.0% | 51% | 99% | $10,050 | $43,071 | +$21,471 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $352.50 0.0% OTM over spot $352.38 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $6.85 mid) = $10,050 credit for the 7d cycle → $43,071/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 51% Breach risk 49% POP (stays ≤ $359.35) 68% EV / mo +$9,674 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 78% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$2,551 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $395 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.07/sh now → $5.00 mid-life (likely $7.01–$10.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,330 simulated challenges: the $352 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $357 (overshoots $4.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $352.50 is at/above CC-SS $352.38: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.68/sh (~25% of the $6.70 collected) or spot ≥ $359.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $352.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $18,413 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $352.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $18,413 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $26,663 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,250, the opportunity cost of earning $43,071/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.857 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $26,663
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $367.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.80 | 15/15 | $21,857 | $19,137 | 70% | 77% | +$6,378 | -$0 | 0.0% | $28,613 (vs do-nothing +$1,950) |
| $360 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 14/15 | $21,600 | $20,058 | 69% | 77% | +$7,604 | -$0 | 0.0% | $24,003 (vs do-nothing $-2,660) |
| $365 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.75 | 13/15 | $21,589 | $21,226 | 67% | 76% | +$6,166 | -$0 | 0.0% | $29,588 (vs do-nothing +$2,925) |
| $362.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 12/15 | $22,114 | $22,930 | 64% | 74% | +$5,812 | -$0 | 0.0% | $30,383 (vs do-nothing +$3,720) |
| $357.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 12/15 | $22,629 | $23,444 | 64% | 74% | +$6,727 | -$0 | 0.0% | $25,343 (vs do-nothing $-1,320) |
| $360 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.20 | 14/15 | $22,400 | $20,858 | 60% | 72% | +$4,972 | -$0 | 0.0% | $34,643 (vs do-nothing +$7,980) |
| $357.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.35 | 10/15 | $22,179 | $25,351 | 58% | 71% | +$4,584 | -$0 | 0.0% | $31,513 (vs do-nothing +$4,850) |
| $355 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 9/15 | $21,214 | $25,566 | 58% | 71% | +$5,665 | -$0 | 0.0% | $26,663 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $355 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.70 | 9/15 | $22,564 | $26,916 | 55% | 70% | +$4,657 | -$0 | 0.0% | $32,243 (vs do-nothing +$5,580) |
| $355 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.35 | 11/15 | $20,979 | $22,973 | 55% | 69% | +$4,002 | -$0 | 0.0% | $35,298 (vs do-nothing +$8,635) |
| $352.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.00 | 8/15 | $22,286 | $27,816 | 52% | 68% | +$4,362 | -$0 | 0.0% | $32,663 (vs do-nothing +$6,000) |
| $352.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.70 | 8/15 | $22,971 | $28,501 | 51% | 68% | +$5,159 | -$0 | 0.0% | $27,623 (vs do-nothing +$960) |
| $350 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.00 | 10/15 | $22,857 | $26,030 | 49% | 67% | +$3,959 | -$0 | 0.0% | $34,783 (vs do-nothing +$8,120) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $350 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.25 | 7/15 | $21,375 | $28,083 | 49% | 67% | +$3,790 | -$0 | 0.0% | $31,122 (vs do-nothing +$4,459) |
| $347.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $15.50 | 7/15 | $23,250 | $29,958 | 45% | 66% | +$3,618 | -$0 | 0.0% | $30,247 (vs do-nothing +$3,584) |
| $347.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $9.25 | 6/15 | $23,786 | $31,673 | 38% | 63% | +$3,127 | -$0 | 0.0% | $25,985 (vs do-nothing $-678) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.