FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC300 @ $353.60

BE SS: $373.00  |  CC-SS: $353.60  |  15 contracts (1,500 sh)  |  2026-07-10 02:12 |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC300 @ $353.60   UNDERWATER $19.40 (5.2% below BE SS)

15 contracts (1,500 sh)  |  BE SS: $373.00  |  CC-SS: $353.60  |  IV: MEDIUM  |  Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $300 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $90.498/sh)
SP: $345 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.446/sh)
HP: $310 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $39.964/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$162,000(ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500
Normal income ref$40,018/mo75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$2,688/mo
Unrealized P&L$18,938fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$20,009/mo
HEDGE COVER
$2,688/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$40,018/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.7 mo to earn back $109,500
ML VELOCITY
4.0 mo to earn back $162,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $353.60 (probe: $352.5C 14d) still earns $40,018/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-07
$0
Hole (after banked)
$0
Cycles closed
0
Credit in flight
$4,377
Open legAcctCredit/shIn flightOpened
15x $375C 10 Jul 2026U13190865$1.85$2,7792026-07-07
5x $400C 31 Jul 2026U13190865$3.20$1,5982026-07-07
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 58 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 46 · %B 45 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.46 (+17%) · daily UBB $373.62 · 1-wk expected move ±$21 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 12 contracts at $360 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 67%, breach 33%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($20,009/mo); it brings $20,571/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 13 × $352.50/7d for $40,393/mo, but breach risk rises to 52% (+19pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 11 × $380/7d (94% survival, $2,734/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $373, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 12 contracts realizes $15,060 and cuts bleed by $2,150/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 15 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 12 × $360, 67% survival, $20,571/mo (E[net] $6,615/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d12 × $36067%$20,571$6,615

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $6,615/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 12 × $360 (primary), 67% survival, breach 33%, $20,571/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $365 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 77% (breach 33% → 23%) for $6,420/mo less (31% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.
GOOG  spot $353.60 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge11 × $38017 Jul7d7.5%94%12%$638$2,734-$17,837$0
Sell 11 × $380 7.5% OTM over spot $353.60 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.60 mid)
= $638 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,734/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $380)
94%
Breach risk
6%
POP (stays ≤ $380.60)
95%
EV / mo
+$1,825
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
6%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$5,158
Free roll-up
+$14/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$401 @ 80% POP
75% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.45/sh now → $5.27 mid-life (likely $4.48–$7.30)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.69/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 165 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $384 (overshoots $3.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (11 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$38024 Jul 202610d left+$5.98/sh+$6,576
cycle +$7,214
[+$6,224…+$7,140] · 100% credit
67%
surv 51%
+$59,428 SAFE
cap gain +$40,490
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$39631 Jul 202618d left+$1.58/sh+$1,733
cycle +$2,371
[+$514…+$2,346] · 84% credit
77%
surv 70%
+$69,132 SAFE
cap gain +$50,194
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$39424 Jul 202610d left+$0.41/sh+$452
cycle +$1,090
[-$989…+$723] · 49% credit
78%
surv 71%
+$65,633 SAFE
cap gain +$46,696
Max even-money escape in the band~$40131 Jul 202618d left+$0.20/sh+$216
cycle +$854
[-$1,235…+$782] · 44% credit
80%
surv 75%
+$72,050 SAFE
cap gain +$53,112
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,734/mo
vs 50% target ($20,009/mo)-86%
vs normal income ($40,018/mo)7% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,975/mo
Downside budget
✓ $380 is at/above CC-SS $353.60: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (11 ct)$13,865
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.58 collected) or spot ≥ $380.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $380)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $376.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$376-380.60
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $380.60
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$380.00 (1.3σ)$638$52,852+$33,915+$2,563
+2.5%$389.50 (1.7σ)$-9,812$50,829+$31,891+$2,563
+5%$399.00 (2.2σ)$-20,262$48,805+$29,868+$2,563
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.60, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $18,938
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (11 × $380): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (4 × $372.50): +$2,300
Total Position P&L @ SS: $21,238 (+$2,300 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $27,562 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,325, the opportunity cost of earning $2,734/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield15 × $37517 Jul7d6.1%91%19%$1,380$5,914-$14,657$0
Sell 15 × $375 6.1% OTM over spot $353.60 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.98 mid)
= $1,380 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,914/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $375)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $375.98)
92%
EV / mo
+$3,391
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
13%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$6,419
Free roll-up
+$14/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$401 @ 83% POP
79% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.35/sh now → $5.20 mid-life (likely $4.59–$7.34)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.28/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 377 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $378 (overshoots $3.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (15 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$37524 Jul 202610d left+$6.05/sh+$9,071
cycle +$10,451
[+$8,521…+$9,681] · 100% credit
67%
surv 51%
+$56,930 SAFE
cap gain +$37,993
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$39131 Jul 202618d left+$1.66/sh+$2,491
cycle +$3,871
[+$835…+$3,151] · 82% credit
77%
surv 70%
+$71,458 SAFE
cap gain +$52,520
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$38924 Jul 202610d left+$0.48/sh+$725
cycle +$2,105
[-$1,024…+$924] · 53% credit
78%
surv 71%
+$66,474 SAFE
cap gain +$47,536
Max even-money escape in the band~$39631 Jul 202618d left+$0.28/sh+$422
cycle +$1,802
[-$1,533…+$1,004] · 46% credit
80%
surv 75%
+$75,824 SAFE
cap gain +$56,886
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$40131 Jul 202618d left-$0.88/sh-$1,318
cycle +$62
[-$3,526…-$747] · 14% credit
83%
surv 79%
+$80,518 SAFE
cap gain +$61,580
budget: banked $1,380 debit $1,318 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$62 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $10,801/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$5,914/mo
vs 50% target ($20,009/mo)-70%
vs normal income ($40,018/mo)15% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,226/mo
Downside budget
✓ $375 is at/above CC-SS $353.60: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (15 ct)$18,855
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.92 collected) or spot ≥ $375.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $375)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $371.25Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$371-375.98
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $375.98
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$375.00 (1.0σ)$1,380$47,859+$28,922-$3,495
+2.5%$384.37 (1.5σ)$-12,682$45,862+$26,925-$3,495
+5%$393.75 (1.9σ)$-26,745$43,866+$24,928-$3,495
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.60, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $18,938
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (15 × $375): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $18,938 (+$0 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $27,562 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,625, the opportunity cost of earning $5,914/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal13 × $36517 Jul7d3.2%77%47%$3,302$14,151-$6,420$0
Sell 13 × $365 3.2% OTM over spot $353.60 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.60 mid)
= $3,302 credit for the 7d cycle → $14,151/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $365)
77%
Breach risk
23%
POP (stays ≤ $367.61)
82%
EV / mo
+$5,762
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
37%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$3,277
Free roll-up
+$14/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$401 @ 88% POP
86% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.16/sh now → $5.06 mid-life (likely $5.39–$8.26)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.52/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,108 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $368 (overshoots $3.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (13 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$36524 Jul 202610d left+$6.17/sh+$8,026
cycle +$11,328
[+$7,304…+$8,113] · 100% credit
67%
surv 51%
+$46,088 SAFE
cap gain +$27,150
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$38131 Jul 202618d left+$1.82/sh+$2,365
cycle +$5,667
[+$333…+$2,196] · 80% credit
77%
surv 70%
+$59,753 SAFE
cap gain +$40,816
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$37924 Jul 202610d left+$0.62/sh+$804
cycle +$4,106
[-$1,093…+$514] · 47% credit
78%
surv 71%
+$55,475 SAFE
cap gain +$36,537
Max even-money escape in the band~$38631 Jul 202618d left+$0.44/sh+$573
cycle +$3,875
[-$1,756…+$325] · 33% credit
80%
surv 75%
+$63,396 SAFE
cap gain +$44,458
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$40131 Jul 202618d left-$2.50/sh-$3,254
cycle +$48
[-$6,372…-$3,649]
88%
surv 86%
+$75,874 SAFE
cap gain +$56,936
budget: banked $3,302 debit $3,254 (99% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$48 cash · rolled 13 ct earn ≈ $5,541/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$14,151/mo
vs 50% target ($20,009/mo)-29%
vs normal income ($40,018/mo)35% covered
Net income (after hedge)$13,928/mo
Downside budget
✓ $365 is at/above CC-SS $353.60: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (13 ct)$16,328
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.64/sh (~25% of the $2.54 collected) or spot ≥ $367.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $365)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $361.35Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$361-367.61
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $367.61
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$365.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$3,302$38,061+$19,124-$4,173
+2.5%$374.12 (≤1σ, normal week)$-8,560$37,618+$18,680-$13,923
+5%$383.25 (1.4σ)$-20,423$35,674+$16,737-$13,923
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.60, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $18,938
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (13 × $365): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (2 × $372.50): +$1,150
Total Position P&L @ SS: $20,088 (+$1,150 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $27,562 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,475, the opportunity cost of earning $14,151/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal12 × $36017 Jul7d1.8%67%54%$4,800$20,571$0
Sell 12 × $360 1.8% OTM over spot $353.60 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $4.08 mid)
= $4,800 credit for the 7d cycle → $20,571/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $360)
67%
Breach risk
33%
POP (stays ≤ $364.07)
75%
EV / mo
+$6,518
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
54%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,190
Free roll-up
+$14/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$401 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.06/sh now → $4.99 mid-life (likely $6.15–$9.04)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $4.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.99/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,631 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $364 (overshoots $3.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (12 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$36024 Jul 202610d left+$6.23/sh+$7,478
cycle +$12,278
[+$6,625…+$7,274] · 100% credit
67%
surv 51%
+$41,177 SAFE
cap gain +$22,240
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$37631 Jul 202618d left+$1.89/sh+$2,270
cycle +$7,070
[-$70…+$1,605] · 74% credit
77%
surv 70%
+$55,906 SAFE
cap gain +$36,968
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$37424 Jul 202610d left+$0.68/sh+$817
cycle +$5,617
[-$1,234…+$275] · 39% credit
78%
surv 71%
+$51,985 SAFE
cap gain +$33,048
Max even-money escape in the band~$38131 Jul 202618d left+$0.51/sh+$616
cycle +$5,416
[-$2,046…-$174] · 21% credit
80%
surv 75%
+$59,187 SAFE
cap gain +$40,250
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$40131 Jul 202618d left-$2.89/sh-$3,469
cycle +$1,331
[-$7,192…-$4,576]
90%
surv 89%
+$74,842 SAFE
cap gain +$55,904
budget: banked $4,800 debit $3,469 (72% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,331 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,201/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$20,571/mo
vs 50% target ($20,009/mo)+3%
vs normal income ($40,018/mo)51% covered
Net income (after hedge)$21,580/mo
Downside budget
✓ $360 is at/above CC-SS $353.60: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)$15,060
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.00/sh (~25% of the $4.00 collected) or spot ≥ $364.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $356.40Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$356-364.07
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $364.07
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$360.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$4,800$33,699+$14,762-$2,100
+2.5%$369.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$-6,000$34,482+$15,545-$12,900
+5%$378.00 (1.2σ)$-16,800$33,615+$14,678-$17,100
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.60, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $18,938
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $360): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (3 × $372.50): +$1,725
Total Position P&L @ SS: $20,662 (+$1,725 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $27,562 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,900, the opportunity cost of earning $20,571/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal13 × $352.5017 Jul7d-0.3%48%99+%$9,425$40,393+$19,821$0
Sell 13 × $352.50 0.3% ITM over spot $353.60 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $7.40 mid)
= $9,425 credit for the 7d cycle → $40,393/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $352.50)
48%
Breach risk
52%
POP (stays ≤ $359.90)
66%
EV / mo
+$7,694
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
100%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
+$3,071
Free roll-up
+$15/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$395 @ 90% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.91/sh now → $4.89 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $7.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.36/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (13 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$35224 Jul 202610d left+$6.31/sh+$8,204
cycle +$17,629
67%
surv 52%
+$37,716 SAFE
cap gain +$18,779
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$36824 Jul 202610d left+$0.44/sh+$568
cycle +$9,993
78%
surv 72%
+$47,970 SAFE
cap gain +$29,033
Max even-money escape in the band~$37531 Jul 202618d left+$0.34/sh+$442
cycle +$9,867
80%
surv 76%
+$56,997 SAFE
cap gain +$38,059
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$39531 Jul 202618d left-$2.91/sh-$3,781
cycle +$5,644
90%
surv 90%
+$74,513 SAFE
cap gain +$55,576
budget: banked $9,425 debit $3,781 (40% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5,644 cash · rolled 13 ct earn ≈ $4,288/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$40,393/mo
vs 50% target ($20,009/mo)+102%
vs normal income ($40,018/mo)101% covered
Net income (after hedge)$40,169/mo
Downside budget
✓ $352.50 is at/above CC-SS $353.60: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (13 ct)$16,218
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.81/sh (~25% of the $7.25 collected) or spot ≥ $359.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $348.98Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$349-359.90
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $359.90
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$352.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$9,425$29,512+$10,575+$1,950
+2.5%$361.31 (≤1σ, normal week)$-2,031$27,982+$9,045-$9,506
+5%$370.12 (≤1σ, normal week)$-13,488$27,868+$8,930-$20,962
SS (= V-bounce)$373.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$-17,225$27,730+$8,793-$24,050
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.60, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $18,938
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (13 × $352.50): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (2 × $372.50): +$1,150
Total Position P&L @ SS: $20,088 (+$1,150 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $27,562 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,475, the opportunity cost of earning $40,393/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GOOG are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (18 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.858 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $27,562

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$37014d24 Jul 2026$6.4015/15$20,571$17,88371%78%+$5,994-$00.0%$28,538 (vs do-nothing +$975)
$367.5014d24 Jul 2026$7.2513/15$20,196$19,97368%76%+$5,638-$00.0%$29,512 (vs do-nothing +$1,950)
$3607d17 Jul 2026$4.0012/15$20,571$21,58067%75%+$6,518-$00.0%$25,462 (vs do-nothing $-2,100)
$36514d24 Jul 2026$8.1012/15$20,829$21,83766%75%+$5,406-$00.0%$30,382 (vs do-nothing +$2,820)
$36521d31 Jul 2026$9.7515/15$20,893$18,20564%74%+$4,926-$00.0%$33,562 (vs do-nothing +$6,000)
$362.5014d24 Jul 2026$9.0511/15$21,332$23,57363%73%+$5,176-$00.0%$31,192 (vs do-nothing +$3,630)
$357.507d17 Jul 2026$4.8010/15$20,571$24,04461%72%+$5,185-$00.0%$26,612 (vs do-nothing $-950)
$36021d31 Jul 2026$11.7512/15$20,143$21,15159%71%+$4,165-$00.0%$34,762 (vs do-nothing +$7,200)
$357.5014d24 Jul 2026$10.959/15$21,118$25,82357%70%+$4,076-$00.0%$32,242 (vs do-nothing +$4,680)
$3557d17 Jul 2026$6.008/15$20,571$26,50854%69%+$4,688-$00.0%$27,762 (vs do-nothing +$200)
$35521d31 Jul 2026$14.0510/15$20,071$23,54454%68%+$3,632-$00.0%$35,862 (vs do-nothing +$8,300)
$35514d24 Jul 2026$12.158/15$20,829$26,76654%68%+$3,740-$00.0%$32,682 (vs do-nothing +$5,120)
$352.5014d24 Jul 2026$13.557/15$20,325$27,49450%67%+$3,532-$00.0%$32,252 (vs do-nothing +$4,690)
Show 5 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$352.507d17 Jul 2026$7.257/15$21,750$28,91948%66%+$4,143-$00.0%$27,842 (vs do-nothing +$280)
$35021d31 Jul 2026$16.359/15$21,021$25,72648%66%+$2,990-$00.0%$33,862 (vs do-nothing +$6,300)
$35014d24 Jul 2026$14.807/15$22,200$29,36947%66%+$3,421-$00.0%$31,377 (vs do-nothing +$3,815)
$347.5014d24 Jul 2026$16.206/15$20,829$29,23044%65%+$2,908-$00.0%$30,172 (vs do-nothing +$2,610)
$347.507d17 Jul 2026$10.155/15$21,750$31,38336%62%+$2,640-$00.0%$26,712 (vs do-nothing $-850)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0  |  2026-07-10 02:12