FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC300 @ $353.76

BE SS: $373.00  |  CC-SS: $353.76  |  15 contracts (1,500 sh)  |  2026-07-10 02:23 |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC300 @ $353.76   UNDERWATER $19.24 (5.2% below BE SS)

15 contracts (1,500 sh)  |  BE SS: $373.00  |  CC-SS: $353.76  |  IV: MEDIUM  |  Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $300 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $90.498/sh)
SP: $345 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.446/sh)
HP: $310 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $39.964/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$162,000(ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500
Normal income ref$39,857/mo75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$2,676/mo
Unrealized P&L$19,800fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$19,929/mo
HEDGE COVER
$2,676/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$39,857/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.7 mo to earn back $109,500
ML VELOCITY
4.1 mo to earn back $162,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $353.76 (probe: $355C 14d) still earns $39,857/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-07
$0
Hole (after banked)
$0
Cycles closed
0
Credit in flight
$4,377
Open legAcctCredit/shIn flightOpened
15x $375C 10 Jul 2026U13190865$1.85$2,7792026-07-07
5x $400C 31 Jul 2026U13190865$3.20$1,5982026-07-07
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 58 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 46 · %B 45 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.46 (+17%) · daily UBB $373.63 · 1-wk expected move ±$21 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 15 contracts at $362.50 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 72%, breach 28%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($19,929/mo); it brings $20,893/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 15 × $355/7d for $40,821/mo, but breach risk rises to 46% (+18pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 11 × $380/7d (94% survival, $2,734/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $373, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 15 contracts realizes $19,575 and cuts bleed by $2,676/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 15 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 15 × $362.50, 72% survival, $20,893/mo (E[net] $5,830/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d15 × $362.5072%$20,893$5,830

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $5,830/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 15 × $362.50 (primary), 72% survival, breach 28%, $20,893/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $367.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 81% (breach 28% → 19%) for $6,943/mo less (33% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $367.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect GOOG to stay flat-to-down near term.
GOOG  spot $353.76 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge11 × $38017 Jul7d7.4%94%12%$638$2,734-$18,159$0
Sell 11 × $380 7.4% OTM over spot $353.76 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.62 mid)
= $638 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,734/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $380)
94%
Breach risk
6%
POP (stays ≤ $380.62)
95%
EV / mo
+$1,842
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
6%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$5,406
Free roll-up
+$14/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$401 @ 80% POP
75% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.77/sh now → $5.49 mid-life (likely $4.75–$7.69)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.91/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 167 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $384 (overshoots $3.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (11 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$38024 Jul 202610d left+$5.82/sh+$6,405
cycle +$7,043
[+$5,950…+$7,033] · 100% credit
68%
surv 51%
+$60,053 SAFE
cap gain +$40,253
Max even-money escape in the band~$39631 Jul 202618d left+$1.52/sh+$1,676
cycle +$2,314
[+$362…+$2,287] · 83% credit
77%
surv 70%
+$69,778 SAFE
cap gain +$49,978
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$39424 Jul 202610d left+$0.27/sh+$299
cycle +$937
[-$1,263…+$561] · 42% credit
77%
surv 71%
+$66,175 SAFE
cap gain +$46,375
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$40131 Jul 202618d left-$0.03/sh-$28
cycle +$610
[-$1,641…+$552] · 39% credit
80%
surv 75%
+$72,523 SAFE
cap gain +$52,723
budget: banked $638 debit $28 (4% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$610 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $10,027/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,734/mo
vs 50% target ($19,929/mo)-86%
vs normal income ($39,857/mo)7% covered
Net income (after hedge)$5,116/mo
Downside budget
✓ $380 is at/above CC-SS $353.76: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (11 ct)$14,476
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.58 collected) or spot ≥ $380.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $380)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $376.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$376-380.62
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $380.62
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$380.00 (1.3σ)$638$53,648+$33,848+$2,398
+2.5%$389.50 (1.7σ)$-9,812$51,653+$31,853+$2,398
+5%$399.00 (2.2σ)$-20,262$49,658+$29,858+$2,398
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $19,800
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (11 × $380): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (4 × $372.50): +$2,360
Total Position P&L @ SS: $22,160 (+$2,360 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $28,650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,490, the opportunity cost of earning $2,734/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield15 × $37517 Jul7d6.0%91%19%$1,485$6,364-$14,529$0
Sell 15 × $375 6.0% OTM over spot $353.76 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.04 mid)
= $1,485 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,364/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $375)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $376.04)
92%
EV / mo
+$3,858
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
13%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$6,649
Free roll-up
+$14/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$401 @ 83% POP
79% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.67/sh now → $5.42 mid-life (likely $4.84–$7.63)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.99/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.43/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 384 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $378 (overshoots $3.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (15 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$37524 Jul 202610d left+$5.90/sh+$8,844
cycle +$10,329
[+$8,187…+$9,488] · 100% credit
68%
surv 51%
+$57,528 SAFE
cap gain +$37,728
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$39131 Jul 202618d left+$1.61/sh+$2,420
cycle +$3,905
[+$764…+$3,081] · 81% credit
77%
surv 70%
+$72,054 SAFE
cap gain +$52,254
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$38924 Jul 202610d left+$0.35/sh+$521
cycle +$2,006
[-$1,369…+$741] · 46% credit
77%
surv 71%
+$66,930 SAFE
cap gain +$47,130
Max even-money escape in the band~$39631 Jul 202618d left+$0.06/sh+$94
cycle +$1,579
[-$1,921…+$731] · 39% credit
80%
surv 75%
+$76,179 SAFE
cap gain +$56,379
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$40131 Jul 202618d left-$0.98/sh-$1,465
cycle +$20
[-$3,710…-$898] · 14% credit
83%
surv 79%
+$81,070 SAFE
cap gain +$61,270
budget: banked $1,485 debit $1,465 (99% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$20 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $11,116/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$6,364/mo
vs 50% target ($19,929/mo)-68%
vs normal income ($39,857/mo)16% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,688/mo
Downside budget
✓ $375 is at/above CC-SS $353.76: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (15 ct)$19,725
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $0.99 collected) or spot ≥ $376.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $375)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $371.25Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$371-376.04
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $376.04
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$375.00 (1.0σ)$1,485$48,685+$28,885-$3,615
+2.5%$384.37 (1.5σ)$-12,577$46,716+$26,916-$3,615
+5%$393.75 (1.9σ)$-26,640$44,747+$24,947-$3,615
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $19,800
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (15 × $375): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $19,800 (+$0 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $28,650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,850, the opportunity cost of earning $6,364/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal ← lean15 × $367.5017 Jul7d3.9%81%38%$3,255$13,950-$6,943$0
Sell 15 × $367.50 3.9% OTM over spot $353.76 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.21 mid)
= $3,255 credit for the 7d cycle → $13,950/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $367.50)
81%
Breach risk
19%
POP (stays ≤ $369.71)
85%
EV / mo
+$6,872
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
28%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$4,716
Free roll-up
+$14/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$399 @ 85% POP
83% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.52/sh now → $5.31 mid-life (likely $5.53–$8.76)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.14/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 840 simulated challenges: the $368 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $371 (overshoots $3.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (15 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$36824 Jul 202610d left+$6.00/sh+$8,997
cycle +$12,252
[+$7,903…+$9,170] · 100% credit
68%
surv 51%
+$49,776 SAFE
cap gain +$29,976
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$38431 Jul 202618d left+$1.74/sh+$2,607
cycle +$5,862
[-$70…+$2,558] · 74% credit
77%
surv 70%
+$64,337 SAFE
cap gain +$44,537
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$38124 Jul 202610d left+$0.45/sh+$681
cycle +$3,936
[-$2,010…+$411] · 36% credit
77%
surv 71%
+$59,185 SAFE
cap gain +$39,385
Max even-money escape in the band~$38931 Jul 202618d left+$0.19/sh+$282
cycle +$3,537
[-$2,870…+$109] · 26% credit
80%
surv 75%
+$68,461 SAFE
cap gain +$48,661
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$39931 Jul 202618d left-$1.85/sh-$2,768
cycle +$487
[-$6,585…-$3,063] · 3% credit
85%
surv 83%
+$78,311 SAFE
cap gain +$58,511
budget: banked $3,255 debit $2,768 (85% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$487 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $8,671/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$13,950/mo
vs 50% target ($19,929/mo)-30%
vs normal income ($39,857/mo)35% covered
Net income (after hedge)$11,274/mo
Downside budget
✓ $367.50 is at/above CC-SS $353.76: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (15 ct)$19,740
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.54/sh (~25% of the $2.17 collected) or spot ≥ $369.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $368)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $363.82Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$364-369.71
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $369.71
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$367.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$3,255$40,780+$20,980-$5,595
+2.5%$376.69 (1.1σ)$-10,526$38,850+$19,050-$13,095
+5%$385.88 (1.6σ)$-24,308$36,921+$17,121-$13,095
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $19,800
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (15 × $367.50): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $19,800 (+$0 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $28,650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,850, the opportunity cost of earning $13,950/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal15 × $362.5017 Jul7d2.5%72%45%$4,875$20,893$0
Sell 15 × $362.50 2.5% OTM over spot $353.76 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.40 mid)
= $4,875 credit for the 7d cycle → $20,893/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $362.50)
72%
Breach risk
28%
POP (stays ≤ $365.90)
78%
EV / mo
+$7,575
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
45%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,988
Free roll-up
+$14/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$404 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.41/sh now → $5.24 mid-life (likely $6.11–$9.15)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $3.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.99/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,341 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $366 (overshoots $3.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (15 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$36224 Jul 202610d left+$6.06/sh+$9,091
cycle +$13,966
[+$7,851…+$8,903] · 100% credit
68%
surv 51%
+$45,041 SAFE
cap gain +$25,241
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$37931 Jul 202618d left+$1.82/sh+$2,724
cycle +$7,599
[-$247…+$2,086] · 72% credit
77%
surv 70%
+$59,623 SAFE
cap gain +$39,823
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$37624 Jul 202610d left+$0.52/sh+$781
cycle +$5,656
[-$1,994…+$179] · 31% credit
77%
surv 71%
+$54,455 SAFE
cap gain +$34,655
Max even-money escape in the band~$38431 Jul 202618d left+$0.27/sh+$399
cycle +$5,274
[-$3,062…-$355] · 20% credit
80%
surv 75%
+$63,748 SAFE
cap gain +$43,948
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$40431 Jul 202618d left-$3.13/sh-$4,690
cycle +$185
[-$9,423…-$5,766]
90%
surv 89%
+$84,460 SAFE
cap gain +$64,660
budget: banked $4,875 debit $4,690 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$185 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $5,289/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$20,893/mo
vs 50% target ($19,929/mo)+5%
vs normal income ($39,857/mo)52% covered
Net income (after hedge)$18,217/mo
Downside budget
✓ $362.50 is at/above CC-SS $353.76: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (15 ct)$19,575
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.81/sh (~25% of the $3.25 collected) or spot ≥ $365.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $362)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $358.88Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$359-365.90
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $365.90
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$362.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$4,875$35,950+$16,150-$3,975
+2.5%$371.56 (≤1σ, normal week)$-8,719$34,046+$14,246-$17,569
+5%$380.62 (1.3σ)$-22,312$32,143+$12,343-$18,975
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $19,800
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (15 × $362.50): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $19,800 (+$0 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $28,650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,850, the opportunity cost of earning $20,893/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal15 × $35517 Jul7d0.4%54%94%$9,525$40,821+$19,929$0
Sell 15 × $355 0.4% OTM over spot $353.76 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $6.45 mid)
= $9,525 credit for the 7d cycle → $40,821/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $355)
54%
Breach risk
46%
POP (stays ≤ $361.45)
69%
EV / mo
+$10,536
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
75%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
+$1,825
Free roll-up
+$14/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$401 @ 92% POP
91% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.26/sh now → $5.13 mid-life (likely $7.07–$10.36)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $6.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.22/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 2,241 simulated challenges: the $355 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $359 (overshoots $4.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (15 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$35524 Jul 202610d left+$6.15/sh+$9,221
cycle +$18,746
[+$7,625…+$8,674] · 100% credit
68%
surv 51%
+$40,146 SAFE
cap gain +$20,346
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$37131 Jul 202618d left+$1.92/sh+$2,886
cycle +$12,411
[-$945…+$1,546] · 62% credit
77%
surv 70%
+$54,760 SAFE
cap gain +$34,960
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$36924 Jul 202610d left+$0.61/sh+$922
cycle +$10,447
[-$2,424…-$79] · 22% credit
78%
surv 71%
+$49,571 SAFE
cap gain +$29,771
Max even-money escape in the band~$37631 Jul 202618d left+$0.38/sh+$563
cycle +$10,088
[-$3,871…-$965] · 9% credit
80%
surv 75%
+$58,887 SAFE
cap gain +$39,087
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$40131 Jul 202618d left-$3.48/sh-$5,219
cycle +$4,306
[-$11,585…-$7,406]
92%
surv 91%
+$85,355 SAFE
cap gain +$65,555
budget: banked $9,525 debit $5,219 (55% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4,306 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $4,135/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$40,821/mo
vs 50% target ($19,929/mo)+105%
vs normal income ($39,857/mo)102% covered
Net income (after hedge)$38,146/mo
Downside budget
✓ $355 is at/above CC-SS $353.76: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (15 ct)$19,650
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.59/sh (~25% of the $6.35 collected) or spot ≥ $361.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $351.45Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$351-361.45
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $361.45
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$355.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$9,525$30,925+$11,125+$675
+2.5%$363.87 (≤1σ, normal week)$-3,787$29,061+$9,261-$12,637
+5%$372.75 (≤1σ, normal week)$-17,100$27,197+$7,397-$25,575
SS (= V-bounce)$373.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$-17,475$27,145+$7,345-$25,575
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $353.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $19,800
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (15 × $355): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $19,800 (+$0 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $28,650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,850, the opportunity cost of earning $40,821/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GOOG are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (19 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.860 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $28,650

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$362.507d17 Jul 2026$3.2515/15$20,893$18,21772%78%+$7,575-$00.0%$24,675 (vs do-nothing $-3,975)
$37014d24 Jul 2026$6.6015/15$21,214$18,53871%78%+$6,467-$00.0%$29,700 (vs do-nothing +$1,050)
$367.5014d24 Jul 2026$7.3513/15$20,475$20,32868%76%+$5,769-$00.0%$30,535 (vs do-nothing +$1,885)
$3607d17 Jul 2026$4.1512/15$21,343$22,46066%75%+$7,073-$00.0%$26,550 (vs do-nothing $-2,100)
$36514d24 Jul 2026$8.2012/15$21,086$22,20365%74%+$5,528-$00.0%$31,410 (vs do-nothing +$2,760)
$36521d31 Jul 2026$10.0014/15$20,000$18,58864%74%+$5,000-$00.0%$34,390 (vs do-nothing +$5,740)
$362.5014d24 Jul 2026$9.1011/15$21,450$23,83163%73%+$5,170-$00.0%$32,170 (vs do-nothing +$3,520)
$357.507d17 Jul 2026$5.1510/15$22,071$25,71760%72%+$6,431-$00.0%$27,900 (vs do-nothing $-750)
$36021d31 Jul 2026$12.0012/15$20,571$21,68859%71%+$4,485-$00.0%$35,970 (vs do-nothing +$7,320)
$357.5014d24 Jul 2026$11.209/15$21,600$26,51056%70%+$4,455-$00.0%$33,420 (vs do-nothing +$4,770)
$3557d17 Jul 2026$6.358/15$21,771$27,94654%69%+$5,619-$00.0%$29,010 (vs do-nothing +$360)
$35521d31 Jul 2026$14.0510/15$20,071$23,71753%68%+$3,514-$00.0%$36,800 (vs do-nothing +$8,150)
$35514d24 Jul 2026$12.408/15$21,257$27,43153%68%+$4,076-$00.0%$33,850 (vs do-nothing +$5,200)
Show 6 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$352.5014d24 Jul 2026$13.657/15$20,475$27,91350%67%+$3,597-$00.0%$33,193 (vs do-nothing +$4,543)
$35021d31 Jul 2026$16.809/15$21,600$26,51048%66%+$3,434-$00.0%$35,076 (vs do-nothing +$6,426)
$352.507d17 Jul 2026$7.607/15$22,800$30,23848%67%+$4,899-$00.0%$28,958 (vs do-nothing +$308)
$35014d24 Jul 2026$15.007/15$22,500$29,93847%66%+$3,633-$00.0%$32,388 (vs do-nothing +$3,738)
$347.5014d24 Jul 2026$16.456/15$21,150$29,85344%65%+$3,149-$00.0%$31,224 (vs do-nothing +$2,574)
$347.507d17 Jul 2026$10.455/15$22,393$32,36035%62%+$2,999-$00.0%$27,795 (vs do-nothing $-855)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0  |  2026-07-10 02:23