FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC300 @ $355.21

BE SS: $373.00  |  CC-SS: $355.21  |  15 contracts (1,500 sh)  |  2026-07-10 03:38 |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC300 @ $355.21   UNDERWATER $17.79 (4.8% below BE SS)

15 contracts (1,500 sh)  |  BE SS: $373.00  |  CC-SS: $355.21  |  IV: MEDIUM  |  Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $300 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $90.498/sh)
SP: $345 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.446/sh)
HP: $310 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $39.964/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$162,000(ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500
Normal income ref$40,950/mo75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$2,656/mo
Unrealized P&L$21,525fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$20,475/mo
HEDGE COVER
$2,656/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$40,950/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.7 mo to earn back $109,500
ML VELOCITY
4.0 mo to earn back $162,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $355.21 (probe: $355C 14d) still earns $40,950/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-07
$0
Hole (after banked)
$0
Cycles closed
0
Credit in flight
$4,377
Open legAcctCredit/shIn flightOpened
15x $375C 10 Jul 2026U13190865$1.85$2,7792026-07-07
5x $400C 31 Jul 2026U13190865$3.20$1,5982026-07-07
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 59 (live) · RSI 56 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 46 · %B 48 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.84 (+17%) · daily UBB $373.77 · 1-wk expected move ±$16 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 13 contracts at $362.50 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 69%, breach 31%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($20,475/mo); it brings $20,893/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 15 × $355/7d for $43,714/mo, but breach risk rises to 50% (+18pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 14 × $382.50/7d (95% survival, $2,760/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $373, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 13 contracts realizes $18,493 and cuts bleed by $2,302/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 15 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 13 × $362.50, 69% survival, $20,893/mo (E[net] $7,243/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d13 × $362.5069%$20,893$7,243

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $7,243/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 13 × $362.50 (primary), 69% survival, breach 31%, $20,893/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $367.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 79% (breach 31% → 21%) for $6,493/mo less (31% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.
GOOG  spot $355.21 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge14 × $382.5017 Jul7d7.7%95%10%$644$2,760-$18,133$0
Sell 14 × $382.50 7.7% OTM over spot $355.21 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.53 mid)
= $644 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,760/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $382.50)
95%
Breach risk
5%
POP (stays ≤ $383.02)
95%
EV / mo
+$1,798
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
6%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$6,906
Free roll-up
+$12/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$395 @ 84% POP
75% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.63/sh now → $5.39 mid-life (likely $3.89–$7.32)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.93/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 172 simulated challenges: the $382 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $386 (overshoots $3.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (14 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$38224 Jul 202610d left+$5.44/sh+$7,622
cycle +$8,266
[+$8,535…+$9,548] · 100% credit
73%
surv 51%
+$64,646 SAFE
cap gain +$43,121
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$39731 Jul 202618d left+$1.98/sh+$2,767
cycle +$3,411
[+$1,505…+$4,308] · 88% credit
76%
surv 68%
+$77,413 SAFE
cap gain +$55,888
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$39524 Jul 202610d left+$0.21/sh+$298
cycle +$942
[-$320…+$1,240] · 64% credit
84%
surv 75%
+$71,965 SAFE
cap gain +$50,440
Max even-money escape in the band~$40231 Jul 202618d left+$0.33/sh+$462
cycle +$1,106
[-$1,105…+$1,963] · 57% credit
78%
surv 73%
+$81,065 SAFE
cap gain +$59,540
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,760/mo
vs 50% target ($20,475/mo)-87%
vs normal income ($40,950/mo)7% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,411/mo
Downside budget
✓ $382.50 is at/above CC-SS $355.21: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (14 ct)$19,999
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.46 collected) or spot ≥ $383.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $382)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $378.68Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$379-383.02
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $383.02
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$382.50 (1.7σ)$644$57,024+$35,499+$6,104
+2.5%$392.06 (2.3σ)$-12,743$55,030+$33,505+$6,104
+5%$401.62 (2.9σ)$-26,131$53,036+$31,511+$6,104
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $355.21, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $21,525
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (14 × $382.50): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $372.50): +$610
Total Position P&L @ SS: $22,135 (+$610 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $30,675 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,540, the opportunity cost of earning $2,760/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield15 × $377.5017 Jul7d6.3%92%17%$1,320$5,657-$15,236$0
Sell 15 × $377.50 6.3% OTM over spot $355.21 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.92 mid)
= $1,320 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,657/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $377.50)
92%
Breach risk
8%
POP (stays ≤ $378.42)
92%
EV / mo
+$3,516
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
11%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$6,664
Free roll-up
+$12/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$390 @ 84% POP
75% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.53/sh now → $5.32 mid-life (likely $4.51–$7.69)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.88/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.44/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 340 simulated challenges: the $378 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $381 (overshoots $3.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (15 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$37824 Jul 202610d left+$5.58/sh+$8,371
cycle +$9,691
[+$9,016…+$10,299] · 100% credit
73%
surv 51%
+$60,004 SAFE
cap gain +$38,479
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$39231 Jul 202618d left+$2.06/sh+$3,096
cycle +$4,416
[+$1,405…+$4,022] · 89% credit
76%
surv 68%
+$73,830 SAFE
cap gain +$52,305
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$39024 Jul 202610d left+$0.36/sh+$535
cycle +$1,855
[-$287…+$1,053] · 66% credit
84%
surv 75%
+$68,040 SAFE
cap gain +$46,515
Max even-money escape in the band~$39731 Jul 202618d left+$0.42/sh+$625
cycle +$1,945
[-$1,473…+$1,481] · 49% credit
78%
surv 73%
+$77,816 SAFE
cap gain +$56,291
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$5,657/mo
vs 50% target ($20,475/mo)-72%
vs normal income ($40,950/mo)14% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,001/mo
Downside budget
✓ $377.50 is at/above CC-SS $355.21: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (15 ct)$21,465
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.88 collected) or spot ≥ $378.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $378)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $373.73Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$374-378.42
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $378.42
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$377.50 (1.4σ)$1,320$51,633+$30,108-$330
+2.5%$386.94 (2.0σ)$-12,836$49,665+$28,140-$330
+5%$396.38 (2.6σ)$-26,992$47,697+$26,172-$330
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $355.21, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $21,525
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (15 × $377.50): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $21,525 (+$0 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $30,675 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,150, the opportunity cost of earning $5,657/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal14 × $367.5017 Jul7d3.5%79%43%$3,360$14,400-$6,493$0
Sell 14 × $367.50 3.5% OTM over spot $355.21 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.49 mid)
= $3,360 credit for the 7d cycle → $14,400/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $367.50)
79%
Breach risk
21%
POP (stays ≤ $369.99)
83%
EV / mo
+$6,416
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
34%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$3,894
Free roll-up
+$15/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$390 @ 91% POP
88% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.33/sh now → $5.18 mid-life (likely $5.46–$8.41)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.78/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,017 simulated challenges: the $368 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $371 (overshoots $3.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (14 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$36824 Jul 202610d left+$5.84/sh+$8,173
cycle +$11,533
[+$8,374…+$9,572] · 100% credit
73%
surv 51%
+$49,541 SAFE
cap gain +$28,016
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$38231 Jul 202618d left+$2.23/sh+$3,116
cycle +$6,476
[+$950…+$3,046] · 85% credit
76%
surv 68%
+$62,606 SAFE
cap gain +$41,081
Max even-money escape in the band~$38731 Jul 202618d left+$0.58/sh+$809
cycle +$4,169
[-$1,807…+$620] · 36% credit
78%
surv 73%
+$66,256 SAFE
cap gain +$44,731
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$38224 Jul 202610d left+$0.13/sh+$187
cycle +$3,547
[-$2,193…-$143] · 22% credit
78%
surv 72%
+$59,677 SAFE
cap gain +$38,152
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$39024 Jul 202610d left-$2.31/sh-$3,233
cycle +$127
[-$5,541…-$3,598]
91%
surv 88%
+$65,194 SAFE
cap gain +$43,669
budget: banked $3,360 debit $3,233 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$127 cash · rolled 14 ct earn ≈ $12,065/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$14,400/mo
vs 50% target ($20,475/mo)-30%
vs normal income ($40,950/mo)35% covered
Net income (after hedge)$13,051/mo
Downside budget
✓ $367.50 is at/above CC-SS $355.21: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (14 ct)$19,964
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.60/sh (~25% of the $2.40 collected) or spot ≥ $369.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $368)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $363.82Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$364-369.99
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $369.99
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$367.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$3,360$41,368+$19,843-$5,180
+2.5%$376.69 (1.4σ)$-9,502$39,952+$18,427-$12,180
+5%$385.88 (1.9σ)$-22,365$38,036+$16,511-$12,180
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $355.21, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $21,525
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (14 × $367.50): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $372.50): +$610
Total Position P&L @ SS: $22,135 (+$610 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $30,675 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,540, the opportunity cost of earning $14,400/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal13 × $362.5017 Jul7d2.1%69%48%$4,875$20,893$0
Sell 13 × $362.50 2.1% OTM over spot $355.21 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.88 mid)
= $4,875 credit for the 7d cycle → $20,893/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $362.50)
69%
Breach risk
31%
POP (stays ≤ $366.38)
77%
EV / mo
+$7,183
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
48%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,769
Free roll-up
+$15/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$385 @ 91% POP
88% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.23/sh now → $5.11 mid-life (likely $6.16–$8.98)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $3.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.36/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,438 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $366 (overshoots $3.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (13 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$36224 Jul 202610d left+$5.96/sh+$7,746
cycle +$12,621
[+$7,755…+$8,668] · 100% credit
73%
surv 51%
+$44,781 SAFE
cap gain +$23,256
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$37731 Jul 202618d left+$2.30/sh+$2,990
cycle +$7,865
[+$579…+$2,354] · 83% credit
76%
surv 68%
+$58,168 SAFE
cap gain +$36,643
Max even-money escape in the band~$38231 Jul 202618d left+$0.65/sh+$848
cycle +$5,723
[-$1,989…+$100] · 27% credit
78%
surv 73%
+$61,484 SAFE
cap gain +$39,959
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$37724 Jul 202610d left+$0.20/sh+$260
cycle +$5,135
[-$2,103…-$336] · 16% credit
78%
surv 72%
+$55,438 SAFE
cap gain +$33,913
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$38524 Jul 202610d left-$2.19/sh-$2,850
cycle +$2,025
[-$5,086…-$3,455]
91%
surv 88%
+$60,515 SAFE
cap gain +$38,990
budget: banked $4,875 debit $2,850 (58% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,025 cash · rolled 13 ct earn ≈ $11,384/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$20,893/mo
vs 50% target ($20,475/mo)+2%
vs normal income ($40,950/mo)51% covered
Net income (after hedge)$20,851/mo
Downside budget
✓ $362.50 is at/above CC-SS $355.21: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (13 ct)$18,493
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.94/sh (~25% of the $3.75 collected) or spot ≥ $366.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $362)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $358.88Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$359-366.38
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $366.38
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$362.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$4,875$37,035+$15,510-$3,055
+2.5%$371.56 (1.0σ)$-6,906$36,958+$15,433-$14,836
+5%$380.62 (1.6σ)$-18,688$35,256+$13,731-$16,055
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $355.21, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $21,525
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (13 × $362.50): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (2 × $372.50): +$1,220
Total Position P&L @ SS: $22,745 (+$1,220 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $30,675 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,930, the opportunity cost of earning $20,893/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal15 × $35517 Jul7d-0.1%50%99+%$10,200$43,714+$22,821$0
Sell 15 × $355 0.1% ITM over spot $355.21 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $7.00 mid)
= $10,200 credit for the 7d cycle → $43,714/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $355)
50%
Breach risk
50%
POP (stays ≤ $362.00)
67%
EV / mo
+$8,890
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
100%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
+$2,692
Free roll-up
+$15/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$378 @ 91% POP
88% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.08/sh now → $5.01 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $6.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.79/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (15 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$35524 Jul 202610d left+$6.13/sh+$9,192
cycle +$19,392
73%
surv 51%
+$40,917 SAFE
cap gain +$19,392
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$37024 Jul 202610d left+$0.23/sh+$346
cycle +$10,546
79%
surv 73%
+$51,172 SAFE
cap gain +$29,647
Max even-money escape in the band~$37531 Jul 202618d left+$0.70/sh+$1,053
cycle +$11,253
79%
surv 74%
+$58,337 SAFE
cap gain +$36,812
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$37824 Jul 202610d left-$2.08/sh-$3,127
cycle +$7,073
91%
surv 88%
+$57,386 SAFE
cap gain +$35,861
budget: banked $10,200 debit $3,127 (31% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$7,073 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $13,143/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$43,714/mo
vs 50% target ($20,475/mo)+114%
vs normal income ($40,950/mo)107% covered
Net income (after hedge)$41,058/mo
Downside budget
✓ $355 is at/above CC-SS $355.21: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (15 ct)$21,225
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.70/sh (~25% of the $6.80 collected) or spot ≥ $362.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $351.45Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$351-362.00
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $362.00
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$355.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$10,200$31,725+$10,200+$1,050
+2.5%$363.87 (≤1σ, normal week)$-3,112$29,603+$8,078-$12,262
+5%$372.75 (1.1σ)$-16,425$27,753+$6,228-$25,200
SS (= V-bounce)$373.00 (1.1σ)$-16,800$27,701+$6,176-$25,200
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $355.21, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $21,525
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (15 × $355): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $21,525 (+$0 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $30,675 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,150, the opportunity cost of earning $43,714/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GOOG are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (17 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.861 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $30,675

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$367.5014d24 Jul 2026$7.8513/15$21,868$21,82672%82%+$13,365-$00.0%$32,950 (vs do-nothing +$2,275)
$37014d24 Jul 2026$6.8514/15$20,550$19,20170%77%+$5,849-$00.0%$31,725 (vs do-nothing +$1,050)
$362.507d17 Jul 2026$3.7513/15$20,893$20,85169%77%+$7,183-$00.0%$27,620 (vs do-nothing $-3,055)
$36521d31 Jul 2026$10.4514/15$20,900$19,55165%78%+$10,330-$00.0%$36,765 (vs do-nothing +$6,090)
$36514d24 Jul 2026$8.7511/15$20,625$23,19864%74%+$5,399-$00.0%$33,590 (vs do-nothing +$2,915)
$3607d17 Jul 2026$4.7511/15$22,393$24,96663%74%+$7,018-$00.0%$29,190 (vs do-nothing $-1,485)
$362.5014d24 Jul 2026$9.6010/15$20,571$24,45161%72%+$4,780-$00.0%$34,175 (vs do-nothing +$3,500)
$36021d31 Jul 2026$12.6512/15$21,686$22,95158%75%+$9,491-$00.0%$38,535 (vs do-nothing +$7,860)
$357.507d17 Jul 2026$5.559/15$21,407$26,59457%70%+$5,040-$00.0%$30,180 (vs do-nothing $-495)
$357.5014d24 Jul 2026$11.809/15$22,757$27,94455%75%+$10,244-$00.0%$35,805 (vs do-nothing +$5,130)
$35521d31 Jul 2026$14.7510/15$21,071$24,95151%72%+$7,709-$00.0%$39,115 (vs do-nothing +$8,440)
$35514d24 Jul 2026$12.958/15$22,200$28,69451%73%+$9,073-$00.0%$35,987 (vs do-nothing +$5,312)
$3557d17 Jul 2026$6.808/15$23,314$29,80850%67%+$4,741-$00.0%$31,067 (vs do-nothing +$392)
Show 4 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$352.5014d24 Jul 2026$14.357/15$21,525$29,32648%66%+$3,599-$00.0%$34,553 (vs do-nothing +$3,878)
$35021d31 Jul 2026$17.359/15$22,307$27,49446%65%+$3,133-$00.0%$36,111 (vs do-nothing +$5,436)
$352.507d17 Jul 2026$8.356/15$21,471$30,58044%65%+$4,022-$00.0%$30,399 (vs do-nothing $-276)
$35014d24 Jul 2026$15.607/15$23,400$31,20142%70%+$7,816-$00.0%$33,678 (vs do-nothing +$3,003)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0  |  2026-07-10 03:38