15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $354.73 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $162,000 | (ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500 |
| Normal income ref | $43,554/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,648/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $28,545 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15x $375C 10 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $1.85 | $2,779 | 2026-07-07 |
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 15 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 13 × $362.50 | 70% | $22,286 | $7,839 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 8 × $380 | 17 Jul | 7d | 7.1% | 93% | 13% | $632 | $2,709 | -$19,577 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $380 7.1% OTM over spot $354.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.82 mid) = $632 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,709/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $380) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $380.82) 94% EV / mo +$1,913 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,011 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $400 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.21/sh now → $5.80 mid-life (likely $3.98–$8.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 238 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $383 (overshoots $3.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $380 is at/above CC-SS $354.73: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.79 collected) or spot ≥ $380.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $380)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $354.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $28,545 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $380): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $372.50): +$4,340 Total Position P&L @ SS: $32,885 (+$4,340 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $37,845 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,960, the opportunity cost of earning $2,709/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 15 × $380 | 17 Jul | 7d | 7.1% | 93% | 13% | $1,185 | $5,079 | -$17,207 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $380 7.1% OTM over spot $354.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.82 mid) = $1,185 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,079/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $380) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $380.82) 94% EV / mo +$3,586 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,521 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $400 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.21/sh now → $5.80 mid-life (likely $5.08–$8.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 224 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $384 (overshoots $3.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $380 is at/above CC-SS $354.73: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.79 collected) or spot ≥ $380.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $380)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $354.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $28,545 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $380): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $28,545 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $37,845 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,300, the opportunity cost of earning $5,079/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 14 × $367.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.6% | 73% | 55% | $3,570 | $15,300 | -$6,986 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $367.50 3.6% OTM over spot $354.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.67 mid) = $3,570 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $367.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $370.17) 77% EV / mo $-1,423 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,288 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $403 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.94/sh now → $5.61 mid-life (likely $5.82–$9.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 978 simulated challenges: the $368 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $371 (overshoots $3.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $367.50 is at/above CC-SS $354.73: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.64/sh (~25% of the $2.55 collected) or spot ≥ $370.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $368)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $354.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $28,545 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $367.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $372.50): +$620 Total Position P&L @ SS: $29,165 (+$620 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $37,845 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,680, the opportunity cost of earning $15,300/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 13 × $362.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.2% | 70% | 47% | $5,200 | $22,286 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $362.50 2.2% OTM over spot $354.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $4.12 mid) = $5,200 credit for the 7d cycle → $22,286/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $362.50) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $366.62) 78% EV / mo +$9,306 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 47% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,998 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $408 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.83/sh now → $5.54 mid-life (likely $6.67–$9.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,405 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $366 (overshoots $3.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $362.50 is at/above CC-SS $354.73: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.00/sh (~25% of the $4.00 collected) or spot ≥ $366.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $362)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $354.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $28,545 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $362.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $372.50): +$1,240 Total Position P&L @ SS: $29,785 (+$1,240 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $37,845 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,060, the opportunity cost of earning $22,286/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 14 × $355 | 17 Jul | 7d | 0.1% | 52% | 99% | $10,360 | $44,400 | +$22,114 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $355 0.1% OTM over spot $354.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $7.45 mid) = $10,360 credit for the 7d cycle → $44,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $355) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $362.45) 70% EV / mo +$13,408 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 78% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$2,769 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $400 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.67/sh now → $5.42 mid-life (likely $7.61–$11.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,326 simulated challenges: the $355 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $359 (overshoots $4.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $355 is at/above CC-SS $354.73: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.85/sh (~25% of the $7.40 collected) or spot ≥ $362.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $354.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $28,545 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $355): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $372.50): +$620 Total Position P&L @ SS: $29,165 (+$620 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $37,845 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,680, the opportunity cost of earning $44,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.864 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $37,845
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $370 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 15/15 | $23,143 | $20,495 | 70% | 78% | +$7,996 | -$0 | 0.0% | $39,345 (vs do-nothing +$1,500) |
| $362.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 13/15 | $22,286 | $22,295 | 70% | 78% | +$9,306 | -$0 | 0.0% | $34,985 (vs do-nothing $-2,860) |
| $367.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.05 | 13/15 | $22,425 | $22,434 | 67% | 76% | +$7,292 | -$0 | 0.0% | $40,250 (vs do-nothing +$2,405) |
| $365 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 12/15 | $23,014 | $24,352 | 65% | 74% | +$6,979 | -$0 | 0.0% | $41,145 (vs do-nothing +$3,300) |
| $360 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 11/15 | $23,100 | $25,767 | 64% | 75% | +$8,521 | -$0 | 0.0% | $36,415 (vs do-nothing $-1,430) |
| $365 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.00 | 14/15 | $22,000 | $20,681 | 63% | 74% | +$6,194 | -$0 | 0.0% | $44,565 (vs do-nothing +$6,720) |
| $362.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.20 | 10/15 | $21,857 | $25,852 | 62% | 73% | +$6,584 | -$0 | 0.0% | $41,845 (vs do-nothing +$4,000) |
| $357.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.95 | 9/15 | $22,950 | $28,274 | 58% | 72% | +$7,392 | -$0 | 0.0% | $37,620 (vs do-nothing $-225) |
| $360 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.10 | 12/15 | $22,457 | $23,795 | 58% | 70% | +$4,625 | -$0 | 0.0% | $46,125 (vs do-nothing +$8,280) |
| $357.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.15 | 9/15 | $23,432 | $28,756 | 55% | 70% | +$5,712 | -$0 | 0.0% | $43,200 (vs do-nothing +$5,355) |
| $355 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $15.45 | 10/15 | $22,071 | $26,067 | 52% | 68% | +$4,013 | -$0 | 0.0% | $47,095 (vs do-nothing +$9,250) |
| $355 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.55 | 8/15 | $23,229 | $29,881 | 52% | 69% | +$5,464 | -$0 | 0.0% | $43,725 (vs do-nothing +$5,880) |
| $355 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.40 | 7/15 | $22,200 | $30,181 | 52% | 70% | +$6,704 | -$0 | 0.0% | $38,685 (vs do-nothing +$840) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $352.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.85 | 7/15 | $22,275 | $30,256 | 49% | 68% | +$4,822 | -$0 | 0.0% | $42,339 (vs do-nothing +$4,494) |
| $350 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $17.20 | 9/15 | $22,114 | $27,438 | 47% | 65% | +$2,584 | -$0 | 0.0% | $43,488 (vs do-nothing +$5,643) |
| $350 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $16.25 | 7/15 | $24,375 | $32,356 | 46% | 66% | +$4,867 | -$0 | 0.0% | $41,569 (vs do-nothing +$3,724) |
| $352.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 6/15 | $22,114 | $31,424 | 45% | 67% | +$5,418 | -$0 | 0.0% | $37,947 (vs do-nothing +$102) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.