FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC300 @ $355.18

BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $332.81 | 15 contracts (1,500 sh) | 2026-07-10 10:23 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC300 @ $355.18 UNDERWATER $17.82 (4.8% below BE SS)

15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $332.81 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $300 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $90.498/sh)

SP: $345 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.446/sh)

HP: $310 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $39.964/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$162,000	(ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500
Normal income ref	$42,975/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$2,648/mo
Unrealized P&L	$28,545	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$21,487/mo

HEDGE COVER
$2,648/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$42,975/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.5 mo to earn back $109,500

ML VELOCITY
3.8 mo to earn back $162,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $332.81 (probe: $350C 14d) still earns $35,582/mo (83% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$4,377

CC-SS ratchet

$355.18 → $332.81

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
15x $375C 10 Jul 2026	U13190865	$1.85	$2,779	2026-07-07
5x $400C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$3.20	$1,598	2026-07-07

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 59 (live) · RSI 56 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 46 · %B 48 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.94 (+17%) · daily UBB $373.82 · 1-wk expected move ±$22 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 13 contracts at $362.50 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 69%, breach 31%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($21,487/mo); it brings $22,286/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 14 × $355/7d for $44,400/mo, but breach risk rises to 50% (+18pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 8 × $380/7d (93% survival, $2,709/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $373, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 13 contracts realizes $24,576 and cuts bleed by $2,295/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 15 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 13 × $362.50, 69% survival, $22,286/mo (E[net] $8,033/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 7d	13 × $362.50	69%	$22,286	$8,033

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $8,033/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 13 × $362.50 (primary), 69% survival, breach 31%, $22,286/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $367.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 72% (breach 31% → 28%) for $8,079/mo less (36% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.

GOOG spot $355.18 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

8 × $380

17 Jul

7.0%

93%

14%

$632

$2,709

-$19,577

Sell 8 × $380 7.0% OTM over spot $355.18 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.82 mid)

= $632 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,709/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

93%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $380.82)

94%

EV / mo

+$1,870

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,844

Free roll-up

+$12/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$400 @ 78% POP

73% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.91/sh now → $5.59 mid-life (likely $3.88–$7.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 259 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $383 (overshoots $3.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (8 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$380	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$6.09/sh	+$4,869 cycle +$5,501 [+$4,525…+$5,647] · 100% credit	68% surv 51%	+$65,303 SAFE cap gain +$36,758
Max even-money escape in the band	~$400	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.79/sh	+$635 cycle +$1,267 [-$453…+$1,581] · 65% credit	78% surv 73%	+$72,882 SAFE cap gain +$44,337
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$392	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.78/sh	+$624 cycle +$1,256 [-$335…+$1,221] · 65% credit	77% surv 69%	+$68,400 SAFE cap gain +$39,855

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,709/mo
vs 50% target ($21,487/mo)	-87%
vs normal income ($42,975/mo)	6% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,361/mo

Downside budget

✓ $380 is at/above CC-SS $332.81: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (8 ct)	$15,196

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.79 collected) or spot ≥ $380.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $380)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $376.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $376-380.82	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $380.82	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$380.00 (1.1σ)	$632	$60,434	+$31,889	+$1,672
+2.5%	$389.50 (1.6σ)	$-6,968	$58,496	+$29,951	+$1,672
+5%	$399.00 (2.0σ)	$-14,568	$56,558	+$28,013	+$1,672

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $332.81, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $28,545

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (8 × $380): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (7 × $372.50): +$4,340

Total Position P&L @ SS: $32,885 (+$4,340 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $37,845 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,960, the opportunity cost of earning $2,709/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

15 × $380

17 Jul

7.0%

93%

14%

$1,185

$5,079

-$17,207

Sell 15 × $380 7.0% OTM over spot $355.18 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.82 mid)

= $1,185 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,079/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

93%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $380.82)

94%

EV / mo

+$3,505

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$7,207

Free roll-up

+$12/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$400 @ 78% POP

73% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.91/sh now → $5.59 mid-life (likely $4.60–$8.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 238 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $384 (overshoots $3.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$380	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$6.09/sh	+$9,129 cycle +$10,314 [+$8,469…+$10,227] · 100% credit	68% surv 51%	+$71,026 SAFE cap gain +$42,481
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$392	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.78/sh	+$1,169 cycle +$2,354 [-$948…+$1,691] · 63% credit	77% surv 69%	+$79,033 SAFE cap gain +$50,488
Max even-money escape in the band	~$400	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.79/sh	+$1,191 cycle +$2,376 [-$1,069…+$2,151] · 62% credit	78% surv 73%	+$88,774 SAFE cap gain +$60,229

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,079/mo
vs 50% target ($21,487/mo)	-76%
vs normal income ($42,975/mo)	12% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,431/mo

Downside budget

✓ $380 is at/above CC-SS $332.81: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (15 ct)	$28,492

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $376.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $376-380.82	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $380.82	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$380.00 (1.1σ)	$1,185	$61,897	+$33,352	+$3,135
+2.5%	$389.50 (1.6σ)	$-13,065	$59,959	+$31,414	+$3,135
+5%	$399.00 (2.0σ)	$-27,315	$58,021	+$29,476	+$3,135

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $332.81, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $28,545

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (15 × $380): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $28,545 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $37,845 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,300, the opportunity cost of earning $5,079/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

13 × $367.50

17 Jul

3.5%

72%

57%

$3,315

$14,207

-$8,079

Sell 13 × $367.50 3.5% OTM over spot $355.18 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.67 mid)

= $3,315 credit for the 7d cycle → $14,207/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $367.50)

72%

Breach risk

28%

POP (stays ≤ $370.17)

76%

EV / mo

$-1,985

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

35%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,719

Free roll-up

+$15/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$402 @ 87% POP

85% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.65/sh now → $5.41 mid-life (likely $5.73–$8.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,048 simulated challenges: the $368 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $371 (overshoots $3.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (13 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$368	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$6.27/sh	+$8,147 cycle +$11,462 [+$7,312…+$8,262] · 100% credit	68% surv 51%	+$57,213 SAFE cap gain +$28,668
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$382	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$2.52/sh	+$3,272 cycle +$6,587 [+$1,098…+$3,123] · 87% credit	75% surv 68%	+$69,582 SAFE cap gain +$41,037
Max even-money escape in the band	~$387	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.99/sh	+$1,283 cycle +$4,598 [-$1,204…+$1,045] · 52% credit	78% surv 73%	+$73,073 SAFE cap gain +$44,528
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$382	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.17/sh	+$220 cycle +$3,535 [-$1,911…-$74] · 23% credit	79% surv 72%	+$66,530 SAFE cap gain +$37,985
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$402	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$2.31/sh	-$3,004 cycle +$311 [-$6,235…-$3,385] · 1% credit	87% surv 85%	+$85,225 SAFE cap gain +$56,680
budget: banked $3,315 debit $3,004 (91% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$311 cash · rolled 13 ct earn ≈ $6,715/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$14,207/mo
vs 50% target ($21,487/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($42,975/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$14,217/mo

Downside budget

✓ $367.50 is at/above CC-SS $332.81: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (13 ct)	$24,583

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.64/sh (~25% of the $2.55 collected) or spot ≥ $370.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $368)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $363.82	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $364-370.17	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $370.17	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$367.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,315	$49,067	+$20,522	-$4,745
+2.5%	$376.69 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-8,629	$48,192	+$19,647	-$11,245
+5%	$385.88 (1.4σ)	$-20,572	$46,318	+$17,773	-$11,245

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $332.81, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $28,545

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (13 × $367.50): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (2 × $372.50): +$1,240

Total Position P&L @ SS: $29,785 (+$1,240 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $37,845 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,060, the opportunity cost of earning $14,207/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

13 × $362.50

17 Jul

2.1%

69%

48%

$5,200

$22,286

—

Sell 13 × $362.50 2.1% OTM over spot $355.18 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $4.12 mid)

= $5,200 credit for the 7d cycle → $22,286/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $362.50)

69%

Breach risk

31%

POP (stays ≤ $366.62)

77%

EV / mo

+$8,571

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

48%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,738

Free roll-up

+$15/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$407 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $7.55/sh now → $5.34 mid-life (likely $6.43–$9.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,438 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $366 (overshoots $3.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (13 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$362	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$6.33/sh	+$8,231 cycle +$13,431 [+$7,235…+$8,027] · 100% credit	68% surv 51%	+$52,703 SAFE cap gain +$24,158
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$377	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$2.59/sh	+$3,361 cycle +$8,561 [+$776…+$2,681] · 84% credit	75% surv 68%	+$66,076 SAFE cap gain +$37,531
Max even-money escape in the band	~$382	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.06/sh	+$1,374 cycle +$6,574 [-$1,583…+$610] · 43% credit	78% surv 73%	+$69,568 SAFE cap gain +$41,023
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$377	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.24/sh	+$311 cycle +$5,511 [-$2,129…-$298] · 16% credit	79% surv 72%	+$63,025 SAFE cap gain +$34,480
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$407	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$3.41/sh	-$4,430 cycle +$770 [-$8,663…-$5,558]	91% surv 90%	+$91,165 SAFE cap gain +$62,620
budget: banked $5,200 debit $4,430 (85% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$770 cash · rolled 13 ct earn ≈ $4,180/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$22,286/mo
vs 50% target ($21,487/mo)	+4%
vs normal income ($42,975/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$22,295/mo

Downside budget

✓ $362.50 is at/above CC-SS $332.81: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (13 ct)	$24,576

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.00/sh (~25% of the $4.00 collected) or spot ≥ $366.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $362)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $358.88	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $359-366.62	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $366.62	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$362.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$5,200	$44,472	+$15,927	-$2,860
+2.5%	$371.56 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-6,581	$44,435	+$15,890	-$14,641
+5%	$380.62 (1.2σ)	$-18,362	$42,774	+$14,229	-$15,860

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $332.81, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $28,545

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (13 × $362.50): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (2 × $372.50): +$1,240

Total Position P&L @ SS: $29,785 (+$1,240 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $37,845 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,060, the opportunity cost of earning $22,286/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

14 × $355

17 Jul

-0.1%

50%

99+%

$10,360

$44,400

+$22,114

Sell 14 × $355 0.1% ITM over spot $355.18 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $7.45 mid)

= $10,360 credit for the 7d cycle → $44,400/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $355)

50%

Breach risk

50%

POP (stays ≤ $362.45)

69%

EV / mo

+$12,041

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

100%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$3,043

Free roll-up

+$15/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$400 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.39/sh now → $5.23 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (14 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$355	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$6.42/sh	+$8,990 cycle +$19,350	68% surv 51%	+$48,515 SAFE cap gain +$19,970
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$370	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.28/sh	+$393 cycle +$10,753	79% surv 73%	+$59,125 SAFE cap gain +$30,580
Max even-money escape in the band	~$375	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.10/sh	+$1,547 cycle +$11,907	78% surv 73%	+$66,508 SAFE cap gain +$37,963
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$400	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$3.32/sh	-$4,642 cycle +$5,718	91% surv 90%	+$90,220 SAFE cap gain +$61,675
budget: banked $10,360 debit $4,642 (45% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5,718 cash · rolled 14 ct earn ≈ $4,459/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$44,400/mo
vs 50% target ($21,487/mo)	+107%
vs normal income ($42,975/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$43,081/mo

Downside budget

✓ $355 is at/above CC-SS $332.81: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (14 ct)	$26,572

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.85/sh (~25% of the $7.40 collected) or spot ≥ $362.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $351.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $351-362.45	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $362.45	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$355.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$10,360	$39,525	+$10,980	+$1,680
+2.5%	$363.87 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,065	$38,369	+$9,824	-$10,745
+5%	$372.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-14,490	$37,421	+$8,876	-$22,820
SS (= V-bounce)	$373.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-14,840	$37,370	+$8,825	-$22,820

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $332.81, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $28,545

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (14 × $355): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $372.50): +$620

Total Position P&L @ SS: $29,165 (+$620 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $37,845 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,680, the opportunity cost of earning $44,400/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GOOG are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (17 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.864 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $37,845

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$370	14d	24 Jul 2026	$7.20	14/15	$21,600	$20,281	70%	77%	+$7,059	-$0	0.0%	$39,245 (vs do-nothing +$1,400)
$362.50	7d	17 Jul 2026	$4.00	13/15	$22,286	$22,295	69%	77%	+$8,571	-$0	0.0%	$34,985 (vs do-nothing $-2,860)
$367.50	14d	24 Jul 2026	$8.05	13/15	$22,425	$22,434	67%	76%	+$6,876	-$0	0.0%	$40,250 (vs do-nothing +$2,405)
$365	14d	24 Jul 2026	$8.95	12/15	$23,014	$24,352	64%	74%	+$6,555	-$0	0.0%	$41,145 (vs do-nothing +$3,300)
$365	21d	31 Jul 2026	$11.00	14/15	$22,000	$20,681	62%	73%	+$4,712	-$0	0.0%	$44,565 (vs do-nothing +$6,720)
$362.50	14d	24 Jul 2026	$10.20	10/15	$21,857	$25,852	61%	73%	+$6,197	-$0	0.0%	$41,845 (vs do-nothing +$4,000)
$360	7d	17 Jul 2026	$4.90	11/15	$23,100	$25,767	60%	68%	$-1,761	-$0	0.0%	$36,415 (vs do-nothing $-1,430)
$360	21d	31 Jul 2026	$13.10	12/15	$22,457	$23,795	57%	70%	+$4,268	-$0	0.0%	$46,125 (vs do-nothing +$8,280)
$357.50	7d	17 Jul 2026	$5.95	9/15	$22,950	$28,274	55%	66%	$-1,382	-$0	0.0%	$37,620 (vs do-nothing $-225)
$357.50	14d	24 Jul 2026	$12.15	9/15	$23,432	$28,756	55%	70%	+$5,299	-$0	0.0%	$43,200 (vs do-nothing +$5,355)
$355	21d	31 Jul 2026	$15.45	10/15	$22,071	$26,067	52%	68%	+$3,675	-$0	0.0%	$47,095 (vs do-nothing +$9,250)
$355	14d	24 Jul 2026	$13.55	8/15	$23,229	$29,881	52%	68%	+$5,067	-$0	0.0%	$43,725 (vs do-nothing +$5,880)
$355	7d	17 Jul 2026	$7.40	7/15	$22,200	$30,181	50%	69%	+$6,021	-$0	0.0%	$38,685 (vs do-nothing +$840)

Show 4 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$352.50	14d	24 Jul 2026	$14.85	7/15	$22,275	$30,256	48%	67%	+$4,450	-$0	0.0%	$43,900 (vs do-nothing +$6,055)
$352.50	7d	17 Jul 2026	$8.60	6/15	$22,114	$31,424	46%	62%	$-453	-$0	0.0%	$39,285 (vs do-nothing +$1,440)
$350	21d	31 Jul 2026	$17.20	9/15	$22,114	$27,438	46%	65%	+$2,972	-$0	0.0%	$47,745 (vs do-nothing +$9,900)
$350	14d	24 Jul 2026	$16.25	7/15	$24,375	$32,356	45%	66%	+$4,470	-$0	0.0%	$44,880 (vs do-nothing +$7,035)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-10 10:23