FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC300 @ $355.07

BE SS: $373.00  |  CC-SS: $332.69  |  15 contracts (1,500 sh)  |  2026-07-10 10:41 |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC300 @ $355.07   UNDERWATER $17.93 (4.8% below BE SS)

15 contracts (1,500 sh)  |  BE SS: $373.00  |  CC-SS: $332.69  |  IV: MEDIUM  |  Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $300 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $90.498/sh)
SP: $345 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.446/sh)
HP: $310 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $39.964/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$162,000(ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500
Normal income ref$43,329/mo75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$2,648/mo
Unrealized P&L$28,545fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$21,664/mo
HEDGE COVER
$2,648/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$43,329/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.5 mo to earn back $109,500
ML VELOCITY
3.7 mo to earn back $162,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $332.69 (probe: $350C 14d) still earns $35,936/mo (83% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-07
$0
Hole (after banked)
$0
Cycles closed
0
Credit in flight
$4,377
CC-SS ratchet
$355.07 → $332.69
Open legAcctCredit/shIn flightOpened
15x $375C 10 Jul 2026U13190865$1.85$2,7792026-07-07
5x $400C 31 Jul 2026U13190865$3.20$1,5982026-07-07
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 59 (live) · RSI 56 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 46 · %B 48 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.94 (+17%) · daily UBB $373.82 · 1-wk expected move ±$21 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 13 contracts at $362.50 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 69%, breach 31%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($21,664/mo); it brings $22,286/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 14 × $355/7d for $44,400/mo, but breach risk rises to 49% (+18pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 13 × $385/7d (96% survival, $2,730/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $373, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 13 contracts realizes $24,576 and cuts bleed by $2,295/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 15 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 13 × $362.50, 69% survival, $22,286/mo (E[net] $7,965/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d13 × $362.5069%$22,286$7,965

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $7,965/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 13 × $362.50 (primary), 69% survival, breach 31%, $22,286/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $367.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 79% (breach 31% → 21%) for $6,986/mo less (31% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.
GOOG  spot $355.07 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge13 × $38517 Jul7d8.4%96%8%$637$2,730-$19,556$0
Sell 13 × $385 8.4% OTM over spot $355.07 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.51 mid)
= $637 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,730/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $385)
96%
Breach risk
4%
POP (stays ≤ $385.51)
96%
EV / mo
+$2,072
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
4%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$6,798
Free roll-up
+$12/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$405 @ 79% POP
73% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.09/sh now → $5.72 mid-life (likely $4.45–$8.84)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.23/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 106 simulated challenges: the $385 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $389 (overshoots $4.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (13 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$38524 Jul 202610d left+$6.01/sh+$7,812
cycle +$8,449
[+$7,183…+$8,820] · 100% credit
68%
surv 51%
+$74,523 SAFE
cap gain +$45,978
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$40031 Jul 202618d left+$2.11/sh+$2,746
cycle +$3,383
[+$735…+$3,823] · 83% credit
76%
surv 69%
+$85,820 SAFE
cap gain +$57,275
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$39724 Jul 202610d left+$0.64/sh+$832
cycle +$1,469
[-$1,369…+$1,608] · 58% credit
77%
surv 69%
+$81,167 SAFE
cap gain +$52,622
Max even-money escape in the band~$40531 Jul 202618d left+$0.58/sh+$757
cycle +$1,394
[-$1,661…+$1,870] · 58% credit
79%
surv 73%
+$89,311 SAFE
cap gain +$60,766
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,730/mo
vs 50% target ($21,664/mo)-87%
vs normal income ($43,329/mo)6% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,739/mo
Downside budget
✓ $385 is at/above CC-SS $332.69: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (13 ct)$24,713
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $385.51 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $385)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $381.15Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$381-385.51
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $385.51
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$385.00 (1.4σ)$637$66,711+$38,166+$8,827
+2.5%$394.62 (1.9σ)$-11,875$64,748+$36,203+$8,827
+5%$404.25 (2.4σ)$-24,388$62,784+$34,239+$8,827
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $332.69, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $28,545
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (13 × $385): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (2 × $372.50): +$1,240
Total Position P&L @ SS: $29,785 (+$1,240 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $37,845 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,060, the opportunity cost of earning $2,730/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield15 × $38017 Jul7d7.0%93%14%$1,185$5,079-$17,207$0
Sell 15 × $380 7.0% OTM over spot $355.07 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.82 mid)
= $1,185 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,079/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $380)
93%
Breach risk
7%
POP (stays ≤ $380.82)
94%
EV / mo
+$3,536
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
8%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$7,282
Free roll-up
+$12/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$400 @ 79% POP
73% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.98/sh now → $5.64 mid-life (likely $4.71–$8.08)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.85/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 233 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $384 (overshoots $3.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (15 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$38024 Jul 202610d left+$6.09/sh+$9,134
cycle +$10,319
[+$8,426…+$10,189] · 100% credit
68%
surv 51%
+$71,173 SAFE
cap gain +$42,628
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$39531 Jul 202618d left+$2.21/sh+$3,309
cycle +$4,494
[+$1,538…+$4,371] · 86% credit
76%
surv 69%
+$84,698 SAFE
cap gain +$56,153
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$39224 Jul 202610d left+$0.72/sh+$1,084
cycle +$2,269
[-$1,061…+$1,571] · 61% credit
77%
surv 69%
+$79,233 SAFE
cap gain +$50,688
Max even-money escape in the band~$40031 Jul 202618d left+$0.68/sh+$1,014
cycle +$2,199
[-$1,188…+$1,991] · 59% credit
79%
surv 73%
+$88,882 SAFE
cap gain +$60,337
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$5,079/mo
vs 50% target ($21,664/mo)-77%
vs normal income ($43,329/mo)12% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,431/mo
Downside budget
✓ $380 is at/above CC-SS $332.69: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (15 ct)$28,492
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.79 collected) or spot ≥ $380.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $380)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $376.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$376-380.82
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $380.82
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$380.00 (1.2σ)$1,185$62,039+$33,494+$3,135
+2.5%$389.50 (1.7σ)$-13,065$60,101+$31,556+$3,135
+5%$399.00 (2.1σ)$-27,315$58,163+$29,618+$3,135
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $332.69, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $28,545
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (15 × $380): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $28,545 (+$0 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $37,845 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,300, the opportunity cost of earning $5,079/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal14 × $367.5017 Jul7d3.5%79%43%$3,570$15,300-$6,986$0
Sell 14 × $367.50 3.5% OTM over spot $355.07 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.67 mid)
= $3,570 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,300/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $367.50)
79%
Breach risk
21%
POP (stays ≤ $370.17)
83%
EV / mo
+$7,367
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
33%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$4,073
Free roll-up
+$15/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$402 @ 87% POP
85% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.72/sh now → $5.46 mid-life (likely $5.68–$8.88)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.91/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 998 simulated challenges: the $368 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $371 (overshoots $3.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (14 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$36824 Jul 202610d left+$6.27/sh+$8,780
cycle +$12,350
[+$7,841…+$8,914] · 100% credit
68%
surv 51%
+$57,625 SAFE
cap gain +$29,080
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$38231 Jul 202618d left+$2.42/sh+$3,389
cycle +$6,959
[+$1,062…+$3,338] · 86% credit
76%
surv 69%
+$70,590 SAFE
cap gain +$42,045
Max even-money escape in the band~$38731 Jul 202618d left+$0.89/sh+$1,246
cycle +$4,816
[-$1,453…+$1,071] · 49% credit
79%
surv 73%
+$74,427 SAFE
cap gain +$45,882
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$38224 Jul 202610d left+$0.12/sh+$161
cycle +$3,731
[-$2,275…-$150] · 21% credit
79%
surv 72%
+$67,362 SAFE
cap gain +$38,817
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$40231 Jul 202618d left-$2.36/sh-$3,307
cycle +$263
[-$6,917…-$3,638] · 1% credit
87%
surv 85%
+$87,814 SAFE
cap gain +$59,269
budget: banked $3,570 debit $3,307 (93% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$263 cash · rolled 14 ct earn ≈ $7,226/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$15,300/mo
vs 50% target ($21,664/mo)-29%
vs normal income ($43,329/mo)35% covered
Net income (after hedge)$13,981/mo
Downside budget
✓ $367.50 is at/above CC-SS $332.69: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (14 ct)$26,474
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.64/sh (~25% of the $2.55 collected) or spot ≥ $370.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $368)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $363.82Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$364-370.17
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $370.17
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$367.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$3,570$48,844+$20,299-$5,110
+2.5%$376.69 (1.0σ)$-9,292$47,470+$18,925-$12,110
+5%$385.88 (1.5σ)$-22,155$45,596+$17,051-$12,110
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $332.69, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $28,545
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (14 × $367.50): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $372.50): +$620
Total Position P&L @ SS: $29,165 (+$620 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $37,845 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,680, the opportunity cost of earning $15,300/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal13 × $362.5017 Jul7d2.1%69%48%$5,200$22,286$0
Sell 13 × $362.50 2.1% OTM over spot $355.07 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $4.12 mid)
= $5,200 credit for the 7d cycle → $22,286/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $362.50)
69%
Breach risk
31%
POP (stays ≤ $366.62)
77%
EV / mo
+$8,754
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
48%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,800
Free roll-up
+$15/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$407 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.61/sh now → $5.38 mid-life (likely $6.50–$9.41)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $4.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.38/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,432 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $366 (overshoots $3.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (13 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$36224 Jul 202610d left+$6.34/sh+$8,239
cycle +$13,439
[+$7,236…+$8,023] · 100% credit
68%
surv 51%
+$52,853 SAFE
cap gain +$24,308
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$37731 Jul 202618d left+$2.50/sh+$3,248
cycle +$8,448
[+$788…+$2,581] · 84% credit
76%
surv 69%
+$66,225 SAFE
cap gain +$37,680
Max even-money escape in the band~$38231 Jul 202618d left+$0.97/sh+$1,259
cycle +$6,459
[-$1,593…+$494] · 40% credit
79%
surv 73%
+$69,716 SAFE
cap gain +$41,171
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$37724 Jul 202610d left+$0.19/sh+$241
cycle +$5,441
[-$2,199…-$382] · 15% credit
79%
surv 72%
+$63,219 SAFE
cap gain +$34,674
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$40731 Jul 202618d left-$3.46/sh-$4,494
cycle +$706
[-$8,772…-$5,640]
91%
surv 90%
+$91,363 SAFE
cap gain +$62,818
budget: banked $5,200 debit $4,494 (86% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$706 cash · rolled 13 ct earn ≈ $4,176/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$22,286/mo
vs 50% target ($21,664/mo)+3%
vs normal income ($43,329/mo)51% covered
Net income (after hedge)$22,295/mo
Downside budget
✓ $362.50 is at/above CC-SS $332.69: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (13 ct)$24,576
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.00/sh (~25% of the $4.00 collected) or spot ≥ $366.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $362)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $358.88Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$359-366.62
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $366.62
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$362.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$5,200$44,614+$16,069-$2,860
+2.5%$371.56 (≤1σ, normal week)$-6,581$44,578+$16,033-$14,641
+5%$380.62 (1.2σ)$-18,362$42,917+$14,372-$15,860
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $332.69, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $28,545
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (13 × $362.50): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (2 × $372.50): +$1,240
Total Position P&L @ SS: $29,785 (+$1,240 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $37,845 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,060, the opportunity cost of earning $22,286/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal14 × $35517 Jul7d-0.0%51%99+%$10,360$44,400+$22,114$0
Sell 14 × $355 0.0% ITM over spot $355.07 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $7.45 mid)
= $10,360 credit for the 7d cycle → $44,400/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $355)
51%
Breach risk
49%
POP (stays ≤ $362.45)
69%
EV / mo
+$12,379
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
100%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
+$2,977
Free roll-up
+$15/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$400 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.46/sh now → $5.27 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $7.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.13/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (14 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$35524 Jul 202610d left+$6.43/sh+$8,999
cycle +$19,359
68%
surv 51%
+$48,524 SAFE
cap gain +$19,979
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$37024 Jul 202610d left+$0.26/sh+$367
cycle +$10,727
79%
surv 73%
+$59,242 SAFE
cap gain +$30,697
Max even-money escape in the band~$37531 Jul 202618d left+$1.06/sh+$1,479
cycle +$11,839
79%
surv 74%
+$66,583 SAFE
cap gain +$38,038
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$40031 Jul 202618d left-$3.35/sh-$4,693
cycle +$5,667
91%
surv 90%
+$90,311 SAFE
cap gain +$61,766
budget: banked $10,360 debit $4,693 (45% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5,667 cash · rolled 14 ct earn ≈ $4,482/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$44,400/mo
vs 50% target ($21,664/mo)+105%
vs normal income ($43,329/mo)102% covered
Net income (after hedge)$43,081/mo
Downside budget
✓ $355 is at/above CC-SS $332.69: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (14 ct)$26,572
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.85/sh (~25% of the $7.40 collected) or spot ≥ $362.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $351.45Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$351-362.45
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $362.45
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$355.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$10,360$39,525+$10,980+$1,680
+2.5%$363.87 (≤1σ, normal week)$-2,065$38,511+$9,966-$10,745
+5%$372.75 (≤1σ, normal week)$-14,490$37,563+$9,018-$22,820
SS (= V-bounce)$373.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$-14,840$37,512+$8,967-$22,820
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $332.69, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $28,545
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (14 × $355): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $372.50): +$620
Total Position P&L @ SS: $29,165 (+$620 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $37,845 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,680, the opportunity cost of earning $44,400/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GOOG are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (17 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.864 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $37,845

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$37014d24 Jul 2026$7.2015/15$23,143$20,49570%77%+$7,669-$00.0%$39,345 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)
$362.507d17 Jul 2026$4.0013/15$22,286$22,29569%77%+$8,754-$00.0%$34,985 (vs do-nothing $-2,860)
$367.5014d24 Jul 2026$8.0513/15$22,425$22,43467%76%+$6,978-$00.0%$40,250 (vs do-nothing +$2,405)
$36514d24 Jul 2026$8.9512/15$23,014$24,35264%74%+$6,660-$00.0%$41,145 (vs do-nothing +$3,300)
$3607d17 Jul 2026$4.9011/15$23,100$25,76763%74%+$7,947-$00.0%$36,415 (vs do-nothing $-1,430)
$36521d31 Jul 2026$11.0014/15$22,000$20,68163%73%+$5,929-$00.0%$44,565 (vs do-nothing +$6,720)
$362.5014d24 Jul 2026$10.2010/15$21,857$25,85261%73%+$6,292-$00.0%$41,845 (vs do-nothing +$4,000)
$36021d31 Jul 2026$13.1012/15$22,457$23,79557%71%+$5,367-$00.0%$46,125 (vs do-nothing +$8,280)
$357.507d17 Jul 2026$5.959/15$22,950$28,27457%71%+$6,828-$00.0%$37,620 (vs do-nothing $-225)
$357.5014d24 Jul 2026$12.159/15$23,432$28,75655%70%+$5,400-$00.0%$43,200 (vs do-nothing +$5,355)
$35521d31 Jul 2026$15.4510/15$22,071$26,06752%68%+$4,602-$00.0%$47,095 (vs do-nothing +$9,250)
$35514d24 Jul 2026$13.558/15$23,229$29,88152%68%+$5,165-$00.0%$43,725 (vs do-nothing +$5,880)
$3557d17 Jul 2026$7.407/15$22,200$30,18151%69%+$6,189-$00.0%$38,685 (vs do-nothing +$840)
Show 4 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$352.5014d24 Jul 2026$14.857/15$22,275$30,25648%67%+$4,541-$00.0%$43,900 (vs do-nothing +$6,055)
$35021d31 Jul 2026$17.209/15$22,114$27,43846%66%+$3,054-$00.0%$47,745 (vs do-nothing +$9,900)
$35014d24 Jul 2026$16.257/15$24,375$32,35645%66%+$4,567-$00.0%$44,880 (vs do-nothing +$7,035)
$352.507d17 Jul 2026$8.606/15$22,114$31,42444%66%+$4,912-$00.0%$39,285 (vs do-nothing +$1,440)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-10 10:41