FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC300 @ $353.67

BE SS: $373.00  |  CC-SS: $336.78  |  15 contracts (1,500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-10 22:35

GOOG-LC300 @ $353.67   UNDERWATER $19.33 (5.2% below BE SS)

15 contracts (1,500 sh)  |  BE SS: $373.00  |  CC-SS: $336.78  |  IV: MEDIUM  |  Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $300 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $90.498/sh)
SP: $345 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.446/sh)
HP: $310 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $39.964/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$162,000(ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500
Normal income ref$37,704/mo75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$2,853/mo
Unrealized P&L$21,750fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$18,852/mo
HEDGE COVER
$2,853/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$37,704/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.9 mo to earn back $109,500
ML VELOCITY
4.3 mo to earn back $162,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $336.78 (probe: $347.5C 14d) still earns $29,668/mo (79% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-07
$0
Hole (after banked)
$0
Cycles closed
0
Credit in flight
$4,377
CC-SS ratchet
$353.67 → $336.78
Open legAcctCredit/shIn flightOpened
15x $375C 10 Jul 2026U13190865$1.85$2,7792026-07-07
5x $400C 31 Jul 2026U13190865$3.20$1,5982026-07-07
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 58 (live) · RSI 56 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 44 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.77 (+17%) · daily UBB $373.66 · 1-wk expected move ±$21 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 14 contracts at $360 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 67%, breach 33%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($18,852/mo); it brings $20,100/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 14 × $352.50/7d for $39,000/mo, but breach risk rises to 52% (+19pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 15 × $380/7d (94% survival, $2,893/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $373, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 14 contracts realizes $20,055 and cuts bleed by $2,662/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 15 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 14 × $360, 67% survival, $20,100/mo (E[net] $5,763/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d14 × $36067%$20,100$5,763

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $5,763/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 14 × $360 (primary), 67% survival, breach 33%, $20,100/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $365 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 77% (breach 33% → 23%) for $7,560/mo less (38% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.
GOOG  spot $353.67 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge15 × $38017 Jul7d7.4%94%12%$675$2,893-$17,207$0
Sell 15 × $380 7.4% OTM over spot $353.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.48 mid)
= $675 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,893/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $380)
94%
Breach risk
6%
POP (stays ≤ $380.48)
94%
EV / mo
+$1,582
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
6%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$6,536
Free roll-up
+$14/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$401 @ 79% POP
75% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.80/sh now → $4.81 mid-life (likely $3.64–$6.59)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.36/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 179 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $383 (overshoots $3.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (15 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$38024 Jul 202610d left+$5.96/sh+$8,942
cycle +$9,617
[+$8,570…+$9,925] · 100% credit
67%
surv 51%
+$65,136 SAFE
cap gain +$43,386
Max even-money escape in the band~$40131 Jul 202618d left+$0.55/sh+$830
cycle +$1,505
[-$733…+$1,920] · 60% credit
79%
surv 75%
+$84,379 SAFE
cap gain +$62,629
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$39424 Jul 202610d left+$0.53/sh+$796
cycle +$1,471
[-$918…+$1,407] · 59% credit
77%
surv 71%
+$74,726 SAFE
cap gain +$52,976
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,893/mo
vs 50% target ($18,852/mo)-85%
vs normal income ($37,704/mo)8% covered
Net income (after hedge)$40/mo
Downside budget
✓ $380 is at/above CC-SS $336.78: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (15 ct)$21,705
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $380.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $380)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $376.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$376-380.48
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $380.48
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$380.00 (1.3σ)$675$56,193+$34,443+$3,750
+2.5%$389.50 (1.7σ)$-13,575$54,127+$32,377+$3,750
+5%$399.00 (2.2σ)$-27,825$52,061+$30,311+$3,750
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $336.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $21,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (15 × $380): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $21,750 (+$0 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $29,925 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,175, the opportunity cost of earning $2,893/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield15 × $37517 Jul7d6.0%91%19%$1,125$4,821-$15,279$0
Sell 15 × $375 6.0% OTM over spot $353.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.80 mid)
= $1,125 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,821/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $375)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $375.81)
91%
EV / mo
+$2,298
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
12%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$5,991
Free roll-up
+$14/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$401 @ 82% POP
79% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.71/sh now → $4.74 mid-life (likely $3.93–$6.81)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.99/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 346 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $378 (overshoots $3.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (15 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$37524 Jul 202610d left+$6.02/sh+$9,037
cycle +$10,162
[+$8,576…+$9,667] · 100% credit
67%
surv 51%
+$59,268 SAFE
cap gain +$37,518
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$38924 Jul 202610d left+$0.60/sh+$894
cycle +$2,019
[-$960…+$1,293] · 63% credit
77%
surv 71%
+$68,862 SAFE
cap gain +$47,112
Max even-money escape in the band~$39631 Jul 202618d left+$0.63/sh+$946
cycle +$2,071
[-$922…+$1,691] · 62% credit
79%
surv 75%
+$78,532 SAFE
cap gain +$56,782
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$40131 Jul 202618d left-$0.61/sh-$909
cycle +$216
[-$3,099…-$131] · 23% credit
82%
surv 79%
+$83,090 SAFE
cap gain +$61,340
budget: banked $1,125 debit $909 (81% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$216 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $10,345/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,821/mo
vs 50% target ($18,852/mo)-74%
vs normal income ($37,704/mo)13% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,969/mo
Downside budget
✓ $375 is at/above CC-SS $336.78: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (15 ct)$21,667
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $375.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $375)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $371.25Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$371-375.81
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $375.81
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$375.00 (1.0σ)$1,125$50,231+$28,481-$3,300
+2.5%$384.37 (1.5σ)$-12,937$48,192+$26,442-$3,300
+5%$393.75 (1.9σ)$-27,000$46,153+$24,403-$3,300
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $336.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $21,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (15 × $375): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $21,750 (+$0 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $29,925 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,175, the opportunity cost of earning $4,821/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal14 × $36517 Jul7d3.2%77%46%$2,926$12,540-$7,560$0
Sell 14 × $365 3.2% OTM over spot $353.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.17 mid)
= $2,926 credit for the 7d cycle → $12,540/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $365)
77%
Breach risk
23%
POP (stays ≤ $367.17)
81%
EV / mo
+$3,919
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
34%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$3,539
Free roll-up
+$16/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$401 @ 87% POP
86% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.53/sh now → $4.62 mid-life (likely $4.88–$7.54)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.53/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,022 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $368 (overshoots $3.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (14 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$36524 Jul 202610d left+$6.14/sh+$8,596
cycle +$11,522
[+$7,909…+$8,680] · 100% credit
67%
surv 51%
+$48,348 SAFE
cap gain +$26,598
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$38131 Jul 202618d left+$2.10/sh+$2,945
cycle +$5,871
[+$940…+$2,821] · 87% credit
76%
surv 70%
+$62,757 SAFE
cap gain +$41,007
Max even-money escape in the band~$38631 Jul 202618d left+$0.77/sh+$1,081
cycle +$4,007
[-$1,233…+$870] · 49% credit
79%
surv 75%
+$66,806 SAFE
cap gain +$45,056
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$38124 Jul 202610d left+$0.10/sh+$143
cycle +$3,069
[-$1,972…-$159] · 21% credit
79%
surv 74%
+$59,955 SAFE
cap gain +$38,205
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$40131 Jul 202618d left-$2.04/sh-$2,856
cycle +$70
[-$5,974…-$3,186] · 0% credit
87%
surv 86%
+$80,606 SAFE
cap gain +$58,856
budget: banked $2,926 debit $2,856 (98% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$70 cash · rolled 14 ct earn ≈ $6,015/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$12,540/mo
vs 50% target ($18,852/mo)-33%
vs normal income ($37,704/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$10,855/mo
Downside budget
✓ $365 is at/above CC-SS $336.78: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (14 ct)$20,195
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.52/sh (~25% of the $2.09 collected) or spot ≥ $367.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $365)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $361.35Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$361-367.17
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $367.17
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$365.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$2,926$39,752+$18,002-$4,704
+2.5%$374.12 (≤1σ, normal week)$-9,849$38,517+$16,767-$15,204
+5%$383.25 (1.4σ)$-22,624$36,532+$14,782-$15,204
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $336.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $21,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (14 × $365): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $372.50): +$545
Total Position P&L @ SS: $22,295 (+$545 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $29,925 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,630, the opportunity cost of earning $12,540/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal14 × $36017 Jul7d1.8%67%52%$4,690$20,100$0
Sell 14 × $360 1.8% OTM over spot $353.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.53 mid)
= $4,690 credit for the 7d cycle → $20,100/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $360)
67%
Breach risk
33%
POP (stays ≤ $363.52)
75%
EV / mo
+$4,407
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
52%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,686
Free roll-up
+$16/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$394 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.44/sh now → $4.55 mid-life (likely $5.54–$8.03)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $3.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.20/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,574 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $363 (overshoots $3.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (14 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$36024 Jul 202610d left+$6.19/sh+$8,669
cycle +$13,359
[+$7,881…+$8,492] · 100% credit
67%
surv 51%
+$43,772 SAFE
cap gain +$22,022
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$37631 Jul 202618d left+$2.17/sh+$3,035
cycle +$7,725
[+$751…+$2,403] · 85% credit
76%
surv 70%
+$58,698 SAFE
cap gain +$36,948
Max even-money escape in the band~$38131 Jul 202618d left+$0.84/sh+$1,172
cycle +$5,862
[-$1,466…+$446] · 39% credit
79%
surv 75%
+$62,748 SAFE
cap gain +$40,998
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$37624 Jul 202610d left+$0.16/sh+$222
cycle +$4,912
[-$2,092…-$350] · 15% credit
79%
surv 74%
+$55,886 SAFE
cap gain +$34,136
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$39424 Jul 202610d left-$2.97/sh-$4,163
cycle +$527
[-$7,850…-$5,181]
90%
surv 89%
+$72,194 SAFE
cap gain +$50,444
budget: banked $4,690 debit $4,163 (89% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$527 cash · rolled 14 ct earn ≈ $6,639/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$20,100/mo
vs 50% target ($18,852/mo)+7%
vs normal income ($37,704/mo)53% covered
Net income (after hedge)$18,415/mo
Downside budget
✓ $360 is at/above CC-SS $336.78: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (14 ct)$20,055
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.84/sh (~25% of the $3.35 collected) or spot ≥ $363.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $356.40Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$356-363.52
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $363.52
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$360.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$4,690$35,103+$13,353-$2,940
+2.5%$369.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$-7,910$34,046+$12,296-$15,540
+5%$378.00 (1.2σ)$-20,510$32,438+$10,688-$20,440
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $336.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $21,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (14 × $360): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $372.50): +$545
Total Position P&L @ SS: $22,295 (+$545 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $29,925 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,630, the opportunity cost of earning $20,100/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal14 × $352.5017 Jul7d-0.3%48%99+%$9,100$39,000+$18,900$0
Sell 14 × $352.50 0.3% ITM over spot $353.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $6.72 mid)
= $9,100 credit for the 7d cycle → $39,000/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $352.50)
48%
Breach risk
52%
POP (stays ≤ $359.23)
65%
EV / mo
+$4,667
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
100%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
+$2,857
Free roll-up
+$15/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$388 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.31/sh now → $4.46 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $6.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.04/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (14 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$35224 Jul 202610d left+$6.26/sh+$8,768
cycle +$17,868
67%
surv 52%
+$40,163 SAFE
cap gain +$18,413
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$36824 Jul 202610d left+$0.52/sh+$734
cycle +$9,834
78%
surv 72%
+$49,866 SAFE
cap gain +$28,116
Max even-money escape in the band~$37531 Jul 202618d left+$0.65/sh+$904
cycle +$10,004
80%
surv 76%
+$59,405 SAFE
cap gain +$37,655
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$38824 Jul 202610d left-$3.00/sh-$4,207
cycle +$4,893
91%
surv 90%
+$69,075 SAFE
cap gain +$47,325
budget: banked $9,100 debit $4,207 (46% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4,893 cash · rolled 14 ct earn ≈ $6,110/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$39,000/mo
vs 50% target ($18,852/mo)+107%
vs normal income ($37,704/mo)103% covered
Net income (after hedge)$37,315/mo
Downside budget
✓ $352.50 is at/above CC-SS $336.78: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (14 ct)$19,985
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.62/sh (~25% of the $6.50 collected) or spot ≥ $359.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $348.98Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$349-359.23
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $359.23
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$352.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$9,100$31,395+$9,645+$1,470
+2.5%$361.31 (≤1σ, normal week)$-3,237$28,859+$7,109-$10,867
+5%$370.12 (≤1σ, normal week)$-15,575$27,824+$6,074-$23,205
SS (= V-bounce)$373.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$-19,600$27,436+$5,686-$26,530
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $336.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $21,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (14 × $352.50): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $372.50): +$545
Total Position P&L @ SS: $22,295 (+$545 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $29,925 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,630, the opportunity cost of earning $39,000/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GOOG are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (18 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.855 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $29,925

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$37014d24 Jul 2026$6.1515/15$19,768$16,91571%77%+$4,927-$00.0%$30,975 (vs do-nothing +$1,050)
$367.5014d24 Jul 2026$6.8013/15$18,943$18,42668%76%+$4,168-$00.0%$31,680 (vs do-nothing +$1,755)
$3607d17 Jul 2026$3.3514/15$20,100$18,41567%75%+$4,407-$00.0%$26,985 (vs do-nothing $-2,940)
$36514d24 Jul 2026$7.6012/15$19,543$20,19466%74%+$3,935-$00.0%$32,505 (vs do-nothing +$2,580)
$36521d31 Jul 2026$9.5014/15$19,000$17,31564%73%+$3,834-$00.0%$35,595 (vs do-nothing +$5,670)
$362.5014d24 Jul 2026$8.4511/15$19,918$21,73763%72%+$3,607-$00.0%$33,225 (vs do-nothing +$3,300)
$357.507d17 Jul 2026$4.2511/15$20,036$21,85461%71%+$3,751-$00.0%$28,605 (vs do-nothing $-1,320)
$36021d31 Jul 2026$11.5012/15$19,714$20,36559%71%+$3,521-$00.0%$37,185 (vs do-nothing +$7,260)
$357.5014d24 Jul 2026$10.409/15$20,057$24,21257%69%+$2,918-$00.0%$34,380 (vs do-nothing +$4,455)
$3557d17 Jul 2026$5.309/15$20,443$24,59754%68%+$3,139-$00.0%$29,790 (vs do-nothing $-135)
$35521d31 Jul 2026$13.7010/15$19,571$22,55853%68%+$2,959-$00.0%$38,175 (vs do-nothing +$8,250)
$35514d24 Jul 2026$11.808/15$20,229$25,55153%68%+$3,068-$00.0%$35,005 (vs do-nothing +$5,080)
$352.5014d24 Jul 2026$12.907/15$19,350$25,84050%67%+$2,506-$00.0%$35,140 (vs do-nothing +$5,215)
Show 5 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$35021d31 Jul 2026$16.209/15$20,829$24,98348%66%+$2,646-$00.0%$39,600 (vs do-nothing +$9,675)
$352.507d17 Jul 2026$6.507/15$19,500$25,99048%65%+$2,333-$00.0%$30,660 (vs do-nothing +$735)
$35014d24 Jul 2026$14.257/15$21,375$27,86547%65%+$2,559-$00.0%$36,085 (vs do-nothing +$6,160)
$347.5014d24 Jul 2026$15.406/15$19,800$27,45844%64%+$1,857-$00.0%$35,895 (vs do-nothing +$5,970)
$347.507d17 Jul 2026$9.405/15$20,143$28,96935%60%+$1,282-$00.0%$31,900 (vs do-nothing +$1,975)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-10 22:35