FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC300 @ $352.98

BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $335.12 | 15 contracts (1,500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC300 @ $352.98 UNDERWATER $20.02 (5.4% below BE SS)

15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $335.12 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $300 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $90.498/sh)

SP: $345 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.446/sh)

HP: $310 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $39.964/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$162,000	(ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500
Normal income ref	$41,971/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,745/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$20,138	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$20,986/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$41,971/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.6 mo to earn back $109,500

ML VELOCITY
3.9 mo to earn back $162,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $335.12 (probe: $347.5C 13d) still earns $32,798/mo (78% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,779

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,598

CC-SS ratchet

$352.98 → $335.12

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $400C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$3.20	$1,598	2026-07-07

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 58 (live) · RSI 56 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 43 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.77 (+17%) · daily UBB $373.65 · 1-wk expected move ±$21 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 14 contracts at $360 / 6d. This is the safest strike (survival 71%, breach 29%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($20,986/mo); it brings $21,000/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 14 × $352.50/6d for $42,000/mo, but breach risk rises to 51% (+21pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 15 × $372.50/6d (92% survival, $6,075/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $373, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 14 contracts realizes $18,655 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 15 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (6d) · sell 14 × $360, 71% survival, $21,000/mo (E[net] $7,841/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 6d	14 × $360	71%	$21,000	$7,841

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 6d · E[net] $7,841/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 14 × $360 (primary), 71% survival, breach 29%, $21,000/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $362.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 77% (breach 29% → 23%) for $6,960/mo less (33% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.

GOOG spot $352.98 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

15 × $372.50

17 Jul

5.5%

92%

17%

$1,215

$6,075

-$14,925

Sell 15 × $372.50 5.5% OTM over spot $352.98 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.84 mid)

= $1,215 credit for the 6d cycle → $6,075/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $372.50)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $373.34)

92%

EV / mo

+$3,894

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

11%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,586

Free roll-up

+$17/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$400 @ 84% POP

80% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.41/sh now → $4.53 mid-life (likely $3.91–$6.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 316 simulated challenges: the $372 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $376 (overshoots $3.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$372	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$6.39/sh	+$9,592 cycle +$10,807 [+$8,978…+$10,100] · 100% credit	67% surv 51%	+$56,043 SAFE cap gain +$35,906
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$390	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$2.03/sh	+$3,040 cycle +$4,255 [+$1,348…+$3,637] · 87% credit	78% surv 71%	+$71,378 SAFE cap gain +$51,240
Max even-money escape in the band	~$395	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.65/sh	+$978 cycle +$2,193 [-$1,055…+$1,505] · 56% credit	81% surv 76%	+$75,743 SAFE cap gain +$55,606
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$390	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.00/sh	+$7 cycle +$1,222 [-$2,099…+$163] · 28% credit	80% surv 75%	+$68,345 SAFE cap gain +$48,207
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$400	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$0.47/sh	-$709 cycle +$506 [-$3,001…-$191] · 21% credit	84% surv 80%	+$80,483 SAFE cap gain +$60,346
budget: banked $1,215 debit $709 (58% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$506 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $10,751/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,075/mo
vs 50% target ($20,986/mo)	-71%
vs normal income ($41,971/mo)	14% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,075/mo

Downside budget

✓ $372.50 is at/above CC-SS $335.12: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (15 ct)	$20,093

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.81 collected) or spot ≥ $373.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $372)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $368.77	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $369-373.34	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $373.34	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$372.50 (1.0σ)	$1,215	$46,452	+$26,314	-$6,585
+2.5%	$381.81 (1.5σ)	$-12,754	$44,454	+$24,317	-$6,585
+5%	$391.12 (2.0σ)	$-26,722	$42,457	+$22,319	-$6,585

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $335.12, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $20,138

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (15 × $372.50): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $20,138 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $27,938 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,800, the opportunity cost of earning $6,075/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

12 × $362.50

17 Jul

2.7%

77%

48%

$2,808

$14,040

-$6,960

Sell 12 × $362.50 2.7% OTM over spot $352.98 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.40 mid)

= $2,808 credit for the 6d cycle → $14,040/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $362.50)

77%

Breach risk

23%

POP (stays ≤ $364.90)

82%

EV / mo

+$6,146

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

34%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,487

Free roll-up

+$17/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$400 @ 89% POP

87% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.24/sh now → $4.41 mid-life (likely $4.75–$7.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,025 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $366 (overshoots $3.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$362	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$6.51/sh	+$7,807 cycle +$10,615 [+$7,056…+$7,796] · 100% credit	67% surv 51%	+$44,556 SAFE cap gain +$24,419
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$380	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$2.17/sh	+$2,599 cycle +$5,407 [+$707…+$2,414] · 84% credit	78% surv 71%	+$59,127 SAFE cap gain +$38,989
Max even-money escape in the band	~$385	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.79/sh	+$949 cycle +$3,757 [-$1,229…+$706] · 47% credit	81% surv 76%	+$62,404 SAFE cap gain +$42,267
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$380	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.12/sh	+$148 cycle +$2,956 [-$1,873…-$170] · 20% credit	80% surv 75%	+$56,676 SAFE cap gain +$36,538
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$400	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$1.96/sh	-$2,353 cycle +$455 [-$5,132…-$2,686]	89% surv 87%	+$73,885 SAFE cap gain +$53,747
budget: banked $2,808 debit $2,353 (84% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$455 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $5,191/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$14,040/mo
vs 50% target ($20,986/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($41,971/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$17,640/mo

Downside budget

✓ $362.50 is at/above CC-SS $335.12: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$16,038

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.58/sh (~25% of the $2.34 collected) or spot ≥ $364.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $362)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $358.88	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $359-364.90	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $364.90	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$362.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,808	$36,750	+$16,612	-$3,432
+2.5%	$371.56 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-8,067	$37,525	+$17,387	-$14,307
+5%	$380.62 (1.5σ)	$-18,942	$35,862	+$15,725	-$15,432

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $335.12, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $20,138

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $362.50): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (3 × $372.50): +$1,560

Total Position P&L @ SS: $21,698 (+$1,560 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $27,938 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,240, the opportunity cost of earning $14,040/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

14 × $360

17 Jul

2.0%

71%

43%

$4,200

$21,000

—

Sell 14 × $360 2.0% OTM over spot $352.98 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $3.10 mid)

= $4,200 credit for the 6d cycle → $21,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $360)

71%

Breach risk

29%

POP (stays ≤ $363.10)

78%

EV / mo

+$7,926

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

43%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,935

Free roll-up

+$17/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$402 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.20/sh now → $4.38 mid-life (likely $5.04–$8.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,287 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $363 (overshoots $3.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (14 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$360	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$6.53/sh	+$9,143 cycle +$13,343 [+$8,077…+$9,071] · 100% credit	67% surv 51%	+$43,031 SAFE cap gain +$22,894
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$377	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$2.20/sh	+$3,077 cycle +$7,277 [+$423…+$2,614] · 81% credit	78% surv 71%	+$58,398 SAFE cap gain +$38,261
Max even-money escape in the band	~$382	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.82/sh	+$1,152 cycle +$5,352 [-$1,880…+$606] · 41% credit	81% surv 76%	+$62,401 SAFE cap gain +$42,263
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$377	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.15/sh	+$211 cycle +$4,411 [-$2,530…-$303] · 18% credit	80% surv 75%	+$55,532 SAFE cap gain +$35,395
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$402	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$2.45/sh	-$3,432 cycle +$768 [-$7,578…-$4,215]	91% surv 90%	+$81,527 SAFE cap gain +$61,389
budget: banked $4,200 debit $3,432 (82% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$768 cash · rolled 14 ct earn ≈ $4,770/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$21,000/mo
vs 50% target ($20,986/mo)	+0%
vs normal income ($41,971/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$22,200/mo

Downside budget

✓ $360 is at/above CC-SS $335.12: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (14 ct)	$18,655

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.75/sh (~25% of the $3.00 collected) or spot ≥ $363.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $356.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $356-363.10	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $363.10	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$360.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,200	$33,888	+$13,751	-$3,080
+2.5%	$369.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-8,400	$32,858	+$12,720	-$15,680
+5%	$378.00 (1.3σ)	$-21,000	$31,277	+$11,140	-$20,580

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $335.12, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $20,138

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (14 × $360): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $372.50): +$520

Total Position P&L @ SS: $20,658 (+$520 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $27,938 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,280, the opportunity cost of earning $21,000/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

14 × $352.50

17 Jul

-0.1%

49%

99+%

$8,400

$42,000

+$21,000

Sell 14 × $352.50 0.1% ITM over spot $352.98 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $6.17 mid)

= $8,400 credit for the 6d cycle → $42,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $352.50)

49%

Breach risk

51%

POP (stays ≤ $358.68)

67%

EV / mo

+$8,998

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

100%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$2,393

Free roll-up

+$18/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$395 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $6.07/sh now → $4.29 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (14 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$352	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$6.60/sh	+$9,241 cycle +$17,641	67% surv 51%	+$38,299 SAFE cap gain +$18,161
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$370	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.10/sh	+$145 cycle +$8,545	80% surv 75%	+$51,088 SAFE cap gain +$30,951
Max even-money escape in the band	~$375	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.80/sh	+$1,115 cycle +$9,515	81% surv 77%	+$58,235 SAFE cap gain +$38,098
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$395	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$2.41/sh	-$3,374 cycle +$5,026	91% surv 90%	+$77,457 SAFE cap gain +$57,319
budget: banked $8,400 debit $3,374 (40% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5,026 cash · rolled 14 ct earn ≈ $4,647/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$42,000/mo
vs 50% target ($20,986/mo)	+100%
vs normal income ($41,971/mo)	100% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$43,200/mo

Downside budget

✓ $352.50 is at/above CC-SS $335.12: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (14 ct)	$18,550

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.50/sh (~25% of the $6.00 collected) or spot ≥ $358.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $348.98	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $349-358.68	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $358.68	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$352.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$8,400	$29,058	+$8,920	+$1,120
+2.5%	$361.31 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-3,937	$27,438	+$7,300	-$11,217
+5%	$370.12 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-16,275	$26,429	+$6,291	-$23,555
SS (= V-bounce)	$373.00 (1.1σ)	$-20,300	$26,050	+$5,912	-$26,880

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $335.12, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $20,138

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (14 × $352.50): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $372.50): +$520

Total Position P&L @ SS: $20,658 (+$520 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $27,938 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,280, the opportunity cost of earning $42,000/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GOOG are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (16 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.857 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $27,938

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$360	6d	17 Jul 2026	$3.00	14/15	$21,000	$22,200	71%	78%	+$7,926	-$0	0.0%	$24,858 (vs do-nothing $-3,080)
$367.50	13d	24 Jul 2026	$6.65	14/15	$21,485	$22,685	70%	77%	+$6,486	-$0	0.0%	$29,968 (vs do-nothing +$2,030)
$365	13d	24 Jul 2026	$7.50	13/15	$22,500	$24,900	67%	75%	+$6,401	-$0	0.0%	$30,928 (vs do-nothing +$2,990)
$357.50	6d	17 Jul 2026	$3.80	12/15	$22,800	$26,400	64%	74%	+$7,192	-$0	0.0%	$26,258 (vs do-nothing $-1,680)
$362.50	13d	24 Jul 2026	$8.45	11/15	$21,450	$26,250	64%	74%	+$5,772	-$0	0.0%	$31,513 (vs do-nothing +$3,575)
$360	20d	31 Jul 2026	$11.15	13/15	$21,743	$24,143	60%	72%	+$4,808	-$0	0.0%	$35,673 (vs do-nothing +$7,735)
$357.50	13d	24 Jul 2026	$10.50	9/15	$21,808	$29,008	58%	71%	+$5,046	-$0	0.0%	$32,708 (vs do-nothing +$4,770)
$355	6d	17 Jul 2026	$4.85	9/15	$21,825	$29,025	57%	71%	+$5,877	-$0	0.0%	$27,623 (vs do-nothing $-315)
$355	13d	24 Jul 2026	$11.65	8/15	$21,508	$29,908	54%	69%	+$4,592	-$0	0.0%	$33,098 (vs do-nothing +$5,160)
$355	20d	31 Jul 2026	$13.45	11/15	$22,192	$26,992	54%	69%	+$4,405	-$0	0.0%	$37,013 (vs do-nothing +$9,075)
$352.50	13d	24 Jul 2026	$12.60	8/15	$23,262	$31,662	51%	67%	+$4,146	-$0	0.0%	$33,858 (vs do-nothing +$5,920)
$352.50	6d	17 Jul 2026	$6.00	7/15	$21,000	$30,600	49%	67%	+$4,499	-$0	0.0%	$28,498 (vs do-nothing +$560)
$350	20d	31 Jul 2026	$15.85	9/15	$21,398	$28,598	49%	66%	+$3,511	-$0	0.0%	$37,523 (vs do-nothing +$9,585)

Show 3 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$350	13d	24 Jul 2026	$14.05	7/15	$22,696	$32,296	48%	66%	+$3,882	-$0	0.0%	$34,133 (vs do-nothing +$6,195)
$347.50	13d	24 Jul 2026	$14.95	7/15	$24,150	$33,750	44%	65%	+$3,085	-$0	0.0%	$34,763 (vs do-nothing +$6,825)
$347.50	6d	17 Jul 2026	$8.70	5/15	$21,750	$33,750	35%	61%	+$2,383	-$0	0.0%	$29,688 (vs do-nothing +$1,750)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-11 00:20