FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC300 @ $354.19

BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $335.78 | 15 contracts (1,500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC300 @ $354.19 UNDERWATER $18.81 (5.0% below BE SS)

15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $335.78 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $300 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $90.498/sh)

SP: $345 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.446/sh)

HP: $310 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $39.964/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$162,000	(ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500
Normal income ref	$41,885/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,693/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$20,888	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$20,942/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$41,885/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.6 mo to earn back $109,500

ML VELOCITY
3.9 mo to earn back $162,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $335.78 (probe: $347.5C 13d) still earns $32,383/mo (77% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,779

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,598

CC-SS ratchet

$354.19 → $335.78

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $400C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$3.20	$1,598	2026-07-07

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 59 (live) · RSI 56 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 46 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.76 (+17%) · daily UBB $373.67 · 1-wk expected move ±$20 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 13 contracts at $360 / 6d. This is the safest strike (survival 68%, breach 32%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($20,942/mo); it brings $21,450/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 13 × $352.50/6d for $44,200/mo, but breach risk rises to 54% (+22pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 15 × $372.50/6d (91% survival, $6,225/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $373, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 13 contracts realizes $17,973 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 15 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (6d) · sell 13 × $360, 68% survival, $21,450/mo (E[net] $7,360/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 6d	13 × $360	68%	$21,450	$7,360

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 6d · E[net] $7,360/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 13 × $360 (primary), 68% survival, breach 32%, $21,450/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $365 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 80% (breach 32% → 20%) for $7,590/mo less (35% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.

GOOG spot $354.19 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

15 × $372.50

17 Jul

5.2%

91%

18%

$1,245

$6,225

-$15,225

Sell 15 × $372.50 5.2% OTM over spot $354.19 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.87 mid)

= $1,245 credit for the 6d cycle → $6,225/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $372.50)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $373.37)

92%

EV / mo

+$3,893

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

12%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,626

Free roll-up

+$16/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$398 @ 83% POP

79% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.48/sh now → $4.58 mid-life (likely $3.87–$6.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 354 simulated challenges: the $372 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $376 (overshoots $3.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$372	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$6.40/sh	+$9,607 cycle +$10,852 [+$8,882…+$10,220] · 100% credit	67% surv 51%	+$55,380 SAFE cap gain +$34,493
Max even-money escape in the band	~$393	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.76/sh	+$1,142 cycle +$2,387 [-$1,002…+$1,825] · 61% credit	80% surv 75%	+$73,785 SAFE cap gain +$52,898
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$388	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.32/sh	+$474 cycle +$1,719 [-$1,683…+$751] · 46% credit	79% surv 73%	+$66,660 SAFE cap gain +$45,772
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$398	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$0.20/sh	-$294 cycle +$951 [-$2,662…+$371] · 32% credit	83% surv 79%	+$78,806 SAFE cap gain +$57,919
budget: banked $1,245 debit $294 (24% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$951 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $11,605/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,225/mo
vs 50% target ($20,942/mo)	-70%
vs normal income ($41,885/mo)	15% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,225/mo

Downside budget

✓ $372.50 is at/above CC-SS $335.78: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (15 ct)	$20,828

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $373.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $372)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $368.77	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $369-373.37	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $373.37	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$372.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,245	$45,773	+$24,886	-$7,005
+2.5%	$381.81 (1.5σ)	$-12,724	$43,832	+$22,944	-$7,005
+5%	$391.12 (2.0σ)	$-26,692	$41,890	+$21,003	-$7,005

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $335.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $20,888

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (15 × $372.50): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $20,888 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $29,138 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,250, the opportunity cost of earning $6,225/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

14 × $365

17 Jul

3.1%

80%

41%

$2,772

$13,860

-$7,590

Sell 14 × $365 3.1% OTM over spot $354.19 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.01 mid)

= $2,772 credit for the 6d cycle → $13,860/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $365)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $367.01)

84%

EV / mo

+$6,637

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

28%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,512

Free roll-up

+$16/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$401 @ 88% POP

87% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.35/sh now → $4.49 mid-life (likely $4.61–$7.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 833 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $368 (overshoots $3.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (14 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$365	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$6.49/sh	+$9,085 cycle +$11,857 [+$8,022…+$9,193] · 100% credit	67% surv 51%	+$47,250 SAFE cap gain +$26,362
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$381	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$2.55/sh	+$3,577 cycle +$6,349 [+$1,288…+$3,538] · 88% credit	77% surv 70%	+$61,322 SAFE cap gain +$40,435
Max even-money escape in the band	~$386	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.87/sh	+$1,215 cycle +$3,987 [-$1,501…+$1,114] · 50% credit	80% surv 75%	+$64,918 SAFE cap gain +$44,030
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$381	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.41/sh	+$570 cycle +$3,342 [-$1,944…+$291] · 35% credit	79% surv 73%	+$58,315 SAFE cap gain +$37,428
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$401	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$1.78/sh	-$2,498 cycle +$274 [-$5,913…-$2,726] · 1% credit	88% surv 87%	+$79,078 SAFE cap gain +$58,191
budget: banked $2,772 debit $2,498 (90% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$274 cash · rolled 14 ct earn ≈ $6,681/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$13,860/mo
vs 50% target ($20,942/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($41,885/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$15,129/mo

Downside budget

✓ $365 is at/above CC-SS $335.78: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (14 ct)	$19,453

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.98 collected) or spot ≥ $367.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $365)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $361.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $361-367.01	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $367.01	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$365.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,772	$38,164	+$17,277	-$4,928
+2.5%	$374.12 (1.1σ)	$-10,003	$37,012	+$16,124	-$15,428
+5%	$383.25 (1.5σ)	$-22,778	$35,109	+$14,222	-$15,428

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $335.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $20,888

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (14 × $365): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $372.50): +$550

Total Position P&L @ SS: $21,438 (+$550 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $29,138 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,700, the opportunity cost of earning $13,860/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

13 × $360

17 Jul

1.6%

68%

49%

$4,290

$21,450

—

Sell 13 × $360 1.6% OTM over spot $354.19 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $3.40 mid)

= $4,290 credit for the 6d cycle → $21,450/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $360)

68%

Breach risk

32%

POP (stays ≤ $363.40)

76%

EV / mo

+$7,580

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

49%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,465

Free roll-up

+$16/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$401 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.26/sh now → $4.43 mid-life (likely $5.42–$8.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,469 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $363 (overshoots $3.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (13 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$360	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$6.54/sh	+$8,504 cycle +$12,794 [+$7,462…+$8,262] · 100% credit	67% surv 51%	+$42,278 SAFE cap gain +$21,391
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$376	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$2.62/sh	+$3,406 cycle +$7,696 [+$1,034…+$2,776] · 87% credit	77% surv 70%	+$56,932 SAFE cap gain +$36,045
Max even-money escape in the band	~$381	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.93/sh	+$1,213 cycle +$5,503 [-$1,583…+$450] · 41% credit	80% surv 75%	+$60,196 SAFE cap gain +$39,309
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$376	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.46/sh	+$602 cycle +$4,892 [-$1,817…+$36] · 27% credit	79% surv 74%	+$54,128 SAFE cap gain +$33,240
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$401	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$2.31/sh	-$3,007 cycle +$1,283 [-$6,747…-$4,053]	90% surv 89%	+$77,806 SAFE cap gain +$56,919
budget: banked $4,290 debit $3,007 (70% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,283 cash · rolled 13 ct earn ≈ $4,849/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$21,450/mo
vs 50% target ($20,942/mo)	+2%
vs normal income ($41,885/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$23,988/mo

Downside budget

✓ $360 is at/above CC-SS $335.78: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (13 ct)	$17,973

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.82/sh (~25% of the $3.30 collected) or spot ≥ $363.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $356.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $356-363.40	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $363.40	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$360.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,290	$33,775	+$12,887	-$2,860
+2.5%	$369.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-7,410	$33,698	+$12,811	-$14,560
+5%	$378.00 (1.3σ)	$-19,110	$32,522	+$11,634	-$19,110

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $335.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $20,888

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (13 × $360): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (2 × $372.50): +$1,100

Total Position P&L @ SS: $21,988 (+$1,100 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $29,138 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,150, the opportunity cost of earning $21,450/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

13 × $352.50

17 Jul

-0.5%

46%

99+%

$8,840

$44,200

+$22,750

Sell 13 × $352.50 0.5% ITM over spot $354.19 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $6.88 mid)

= $8,840 credit for the 6d cycle → $44,200/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $352.50)

46%

Breach risk

54%

POP (stays ≤ $359.38)

66%

EV / mo

+$9,650

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

100%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$3,205

Free roll-up

+$18/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$395 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $6.13/sh now → $4.33 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (13 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$352	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$6.61/sh	+$8,595 cycle +$17,435	67% surv 51%	+$39,423 SAFE cap gain +$18,535
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$370	24 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.08/sh	+$102 cycle +$8,942	80% surv 76%	+$51,342 SAFE cap gain +$30,454
Max even-money escape in the band	~$375	31 Jul 2026	17d left	+$0.61/sh	+$790 cycle +$9,630	81% surv 77%	+$57,987 SAFE cap gain +$37,100
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$395	31 Jul 2026	17d left	-$2.41/sh	-$3,132 cycle +$5,708	91% surv 90%	+$75,895 SAFE cap gain +$55,007
budget: banked $8,840 debit $3,132 (35% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5,708 cash · rolled 13 ct earn ≈ $4,416/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$44,200/mo
vs 50% target ($20,942/mo)	+111%
vs normal income ($41,885/mo)	106% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$46,738/mo

Downside budget

✓ $352.50 is at/above CC-SS $335.78: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($109,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($162,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (13 ct)	$18,005

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.70/sh (~25% of the $6.80 collected) or spot ≥ $359.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $348.98	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $349-359.38	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $359.38	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.86 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$352.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$8,840	$30,828	+$9,940	+$1,690
+2.5%	$361.31 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,616	$28,564	+$7,676	-$9,766
+5%	$370.12 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-14,072	$28,489	+$7,601	-$21,222
SS (= V-bounce)	$373.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-17,810	$28,364	+$7,477	-$24,310

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $335.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $20,888

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (13 × $352.50): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (2 × $372.50): +$1,100

Total Position P&L @ SS: $21,988 (+$1,100 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $29,138 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,150, the opportunity cost of earning $44,200/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GOOG are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (18 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.861 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $29,138

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$370	13d	24 Jul 2026	$6.25	15/15	$21,635	$21,635	71%	78%	+$6,845	-$0	0.0%	$30,263 (vs do-nothing +$1,125)
$367.50	13d	24 Jul 2026	$7.05	13/15	$21,150	$23,688	68%	76%	+$6,280	-$0	0.0%	$31,153 (vs do-nothing +$2,015)
$360	6d	17 Jul 2026	$3.30	13/15	$21,450	$23,988	68%	76%	+$7,580	-$0	0.0%	$26,278 (vs do-nothing $-2,860)
$365	13d	24 Jul 2026	$7.90	12/15	$21,877	$25,685	66%	75%	+$6,023	-$0	0.0%	$32,018 (vs do-nothing +$2,880)
$365	20d	31 Jul 2026	$9.80	15/15	$22,050	$22,050	64%	74%	+$5,745	-$0	0.0%	$35,588 (vs do-nothing +$6,450)
$362.50	13d	24 Jul 2026	$8.80	11/15	$22,338	$27,415	62%	73%	+$5,628	-$0	0.0%	$32,768 (vs do-nothing +$3,630)
$357.50	6d	17 Jul 2026	$4.25	10/15	$21,250	$27,596	61%	73%	+$6,418	-$0	0.0%	$27,888 (vs do-nothing $-1,250)
$360	20d	31 Jul 2026	$11.80	12/15	$21,240	$25,048	59%	71%	+$4,853	-$0	0.0%	$36,698 (vs do-nothing +$7,560)
$357.50	13d	24 Jul 2026	$10.45	9/15	$21,704	$29,319	56%	70%	+$3,879	-$0	0.0%	$33,593 (vs do-nothing +$4,455)
$355	6d	17 Jul 2026	$5.40	8/15	$21,600	$30,485	53%	69%	+$5,510	-$0	0.0%	$29,058 (vs do-nothing $-80)
$355	20d	31 Jul 2026	$13.70	11/15	$22,605	$27,682	53%	68%	+$3,964	-$0	0.0%	$38,158 (vs do-nothing +$9,020)
$355	13d	24 Jul 2026	$12.10	8/15	$22,338	$31,223	53%	68%	+$4,375	-$0	0.0%	$34,418 (vs do-nothing +$5,280)
$352.50	13d	24 Jul 2026	$13.30	7/15	$21,485	$31,638	49%	67%	+$3,750	-$0	0.0%	$34,598 (vs do-nothing +$5,460)

Show 5 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$350	20d	31 Jul 2026	$16.25	9/15	$21,938	$29,553	47%	66%	+$3,254	-$0	0.0%	$38,813 (vs do-nothing +$9,675)
$350	13d	24 Jul 2026	$14.70	7/15	$23,746	$33,900	46%	65%	+$3,831	-$0	0.0%	$35,578 (vs do-nothing +$6,440)
$352.50	6d	17 Jul 2026	$6.80	7/15	$23,800	$33,954	46%	66%	+$5,196	-$0	0.0%	$30,048 (vs do-nothing +$910)
$347.50	13d	24 Jul 2026	$16.05	6/15	$22,223	$33,646	43%	64%	+$3,145	-$0	0.0%	$35,468 (vs do-nothing +$6,330)
$347.50	6d	17 Jul 2026	$9.75	5/15	$24,375	$37,067	31%	60%	+$2,905	-$0	0.0%	$31,263 (vs do-nothing +$2,125)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-11 03:39