15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $333.41 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $162,000 | (ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500 |
| Normal income ref | $43,096/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,818/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $24,735 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 15 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 13 × $360 | 65% | $22,750 | $8,127 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 15 × $375 | 17 Jul | 6d | 5.6% | 92% | 16% | $1,020 | $5,100 | -$17,650 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $375 5.6% OTM over spot $355.05 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.71 mid) = $1,020 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $375) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $375.71) 93% EV / mo +$3,246 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,558 Free roll-up +$17/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $400 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.20/sh now → $4.39 mid-life (likely $3.90–$6.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 256 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $378 (overshoots $3.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $375 is at/above CC-SS $333.41: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $375.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $375)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $333.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $24,735 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $375): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $24,735 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $33,360 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,625, the opportunity cost of earning $5,100/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 14 × $365 | 17 Jul | 6d | 2.8% | 78% | 45% | $2,870 | $14,350 | -$8,400 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $365 2.8% OTM over spot $355.05 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.13 mid) = $2,870 credit for the 6d cycle → $14,350/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $365) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $367.13) 82% EV / mo +$6,138 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,106 Free roll-up +$17/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $400 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.04/sh now → $4.27 mid-life (likely $4.45–$7.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 942 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $368 (overshoots $3.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $365 is at/above CC-SS $333.41: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.51/sh (~25% of the $2.05 collected) or spot ≥ $367.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $365)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $333.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $24,735 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $365): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $372.50): +$575 Total Position P&L @ SS: $25,310 (+$575 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $33,360 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,050, the opportunity cost of earning $14,350/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 13 × $360 | 17 Jul | 6d | 1.4% | 65% | 53% | $4,550 | $22,750 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $360 1.4% OTM over spot $355.05 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $3.60 mid) = $4,550 credit for the 6d cycle → $22,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $360) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $363.60) 75% EV / mo +$7,218 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 53% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$923 Free roll-up +$17/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $392 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.95/sh now → $4.21 mid-life (likely $5.23–$7.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,603 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $363 (overshoots $3.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $360 is at/above CC-SS $333.41: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.88/sh (~25% of the $3.50 collected) or spot ≥ $363.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $333.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $24,735 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $360): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $372.50): +$1,150 Total Position P&L @ SS: $25,885 (+$1,150 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $33,360 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,475, the opportunity cost of earning $22,750/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 13 × $352.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | -0.7% | 43% | 99+% | $9,100 | $45,500 | +$22,750 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $352.50 0.7% ITM over spot $355.05 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $7.17 mid) = $9,100 credit for the 6d cycle → $45,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 43% Breach risk 57% POP (stays ≤ $359.68) 64% EV / mo +$7,730 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$3,741 Free roll-up +$18/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $385 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.83/sh now → $4.12 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $352.50 is at/above CC-SS $333.41: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.75/sh (~25% of the $7.00 collected) or spot ≥ $359.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $333.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $24,735 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $352.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $372.50): +$1,150 Total Position P&L @ SS: $25,885 (+$1,150 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $33,360 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,475, the opportunity cost of earning $45,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $33,360
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $370 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 15/15 | $21,808 | $21,808 | 70% | 77% | +$6,324 | -$0 | 0.0% | $34,185 (vs do-nothing +$825) |
| $367.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 13/15 | $21,600 | $24,254 | 68% | 76% | +$6,041 | -$0 | 0.0% | $35,245 (vs do-nothing +$1,885) |
| $360 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 13/15 | $22,750 | $25,404 | 65% | 75% | +$7,218 | -$0 | 0.0% | $30,435 (vs do-nothing $-2,925) |
| $365 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 12/15 | $22,431 | $26,412 | 65% | 74% | +$5,854 | -$0 | 0.0% | $36,180 (vs do-nothing +$2,820) |
| $365 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.85 | 15/15 | $22,162 | $22,162 | 63% | 73% | +$4,961 | -$0 | 0.0% | $39,510 (vs do-nothing +$6,150) |
| $362.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.15 | 11/15 | $23,227 | $28,535 | 61% | 72% | +$5,771 | -$0 | 0.0% | $37,100 (vs do-nothing +$3,740) |
| $357.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 10/15 | $22,250 | $28,885 | 58% | 71% | +$5,761 | -$0 | 0.0% | $32,060 (vs do-nothing $-1,300) |
| $360 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.65 | 13/15 | $22,718 | $25,371 | 58% | 70% | +$4,057 | -$0 | 0.0% | $41,030 (vs do-nothing +$7,670) |
| $357.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.20 | 9/15 | $23,262 | $31,223 | 55% | 69% | +$4,681 | -$0 | 0.0% | $38,265 (vs do-nothing +$4,905) |
| $355 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $14.10 | 11/15 | $23,265 | $28,573 | 52% | 68% | +$3,760 | -$0 | 0.0% | $42,545 (vs do-nothing +$9,185) |
| $355 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.50 | 8/15 | $23,077 | $32,365 | 52% | 68% | +$4,375 | -$0 | 0.0% | $38,760 (vs do-nothing +$5,400) |
| $355 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 8/15 | $22,400 | $31,688 | 51% | 67% | +$4,656 | -$0 | 0.0% | $33,240 (vs do-nothing $-120) |
| $352.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.70 | 7/15 | $22,131 | $32,746 | 48% | 66% | +$3,691 | -$0 | 0.0% | $38,925 (vs do-nothing +$5,565) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $350 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.40 | 9/15 | $22,140 | $30,102 | 46% | 65% | +$2,683 | -$0 | 0.0% | $42,945 (vs do-nothing +$9,585) |
| $350 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.95 | 7/15 | $24,150 | $34,765 | 45% | 65% | +$3,472 | -$0 | 0.0% | $39,800 (vs do-nothing +$6,440) |
| $352.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 7/15 | $24,500 | $35,115 | 43% | 64% | +$4,162 | -$0 | 0.0% | $34,235 (vs do-nothing +$875) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.