FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC300 @ $353.06

BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $333.08 | 15 contracts (1,500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC300 @ $353.06 UNDERWATER $19.94 (5.3% below BE SS)

15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $333.08 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $300 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $90.498/sh)

SP: $345 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.446/sh)

HP: $310 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $39.964/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$162,000	(ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500
Normal income ref	$53,734/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,828/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$22,605	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$26,867/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$53,734/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $109,500

ML VELOCITY
3.0 mo to earn back $162,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $333.08 (probe: $347.5C 11d) still earns $44,734/mo (83% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,779

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,598

CC-SS ratchet

$353.06 → $333.08

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $400C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$3.20	$1,598	2026-07-07

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $333.08 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 15 × $370 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $370)

71%

Touch odds

60%

Per cycle

$12,300

Income / mo

$20,500

🎯 Recommended · sell 15 × $362.50 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $362.50)

81%

Touch odds

37%

Per cycle

$4,095

Income / mo

$30,713

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.07/sh now → $5.00 mid-life (likely $5.22–$8.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.73/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 754 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $366 (overshoots $3.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$362	24 Jul 2026	9d left	+$7.10/sh	+$10,647 cycle +$14,742 [+$9,565…+$11,254] · 100% credit	74% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$379	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$2.37/sh	+$3,553 cycle +$7,648 [-$77…+$3,390] · 74% credit	79% surv 72%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$384	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.59/sh	+$879 cycle +$4,974 [-$2,747…+$713] · 35% credit	85% surv 80%
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$379	24 Jul 2026	9d left	+$0.14/sh	+$207 cycle +$4,302 [-$3,579…-$152] · 22% credit	82% surv 76%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$394	31 Jul 2026	16d left	-$1.96/sh	-$2,935 cycle +$1,160 [-$7,425…-$3,210]	90% surv 89%
budget: banked $4,095 debit $2,935 (72% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,160 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $8,560/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 15 × $390 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $390)

91%

Touch odds

19%

Per cycle

$3,300

Income / mo

$9,000

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $15.41/sh now → $10.90 mid-life (likely $7.63–$13.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 228 simulated challenges: the $390 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $394 (overshoots $4.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$390	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.52/sh	+$2,282 cycle +$5,582 [+$1,144…+$5,747] · 83% credit	69% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$392	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.60/sh	+$898 cycle +$4,198 [-$554…+$4,221] · 69% credit	70% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$392	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.60/sh	+$898 cycle +$4,198 [-$554…+$4,221] · 69% credit	70% surv 54%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$397	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$1.82/sh	-$2,731 cycle +$569 [-$4,814…+$420] · 27% credit	73% surv 61%
budget: banked $3,300 debit $2,731 (83% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$569 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $34,047/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (17 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $31,230

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$362.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.73	14/15	$28,665	$30,233	81%	88%	+$21,235	-$0	0.0%	$27,002 (vs do-nothing $-4,228)
$360	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.50	11/15	$28,875	$35,148	75%	84%	+$19,367	-$0	0.0%	$28,755 (vs do-nothing $-2,475)
$367.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.20	14/15	$27,491	$29,059	71%	80%	+$12,679	-$0	0.0%	$33,260 (vs do-nothing +$2,030)
$365	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.10	13/15	$28,718	$31,855	68%	78%	+$12,502	-$0	0.0%	$34,285 (vs do-nothing +$3,055)
$357.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.45	9/15	$30,038	$39,447	67%	81%	+$17,859	-$0	0.0%	$30,060 (vs do-nothing $-1,170)
$362.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.15	11/15	$27,450	$33,723	65%	76%	+$11,366	-$0	0.0%	$34,970 (vs do-nothing +$3,740)
$360	18d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	14/15	$27,183	$28,752	60%	73%	+$8,257	-$0	0.0%	$39,490 (vs do-nothing +$8,260)
$357.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$11.20	9/15	$27,491	$36,900	59%	77%	+$14,131	-$0	0.0%	$36,135 (vs do-nothing +$4,905)
$355	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.60	7/15	$29,400	$41,945	58%	77%	+$15,190	-$0	0.0%	$31,125 (vs do-nothing $-105)
$355	11d	24 Jul 2026	$12.50	8/15	$27,273	$38,250	55%	75%	+$13,096	-$0	0.0%	$36,630 (vs do-nothing +$5,400)
$355	18d	31 Jul 2026	$14.10	12/15	$28,200	$32,905	54%	70%	+$7,762	-$0	0.0%	$41,250 (vs do-nothing +$10,020)
$352.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$13.70	8/15	$29,891	$40,868	50%	74%	+$13,124	-$0	0.0%	$37,590 (vs do-nothing +$6,360)
$352.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$7.00	6/15	$31,500	$45,614	48%	74%	+$14,005	-$0	0.0%	$31,980 (vs do-nothing +$750)

Show 4 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$350	18d	31 Jul 2026	$16.40	10/15	$27,333	$35,174	48%	68%	+$6,196	-$0	0.0%	$41,880 (vs do-nothing +$10,650)
$350	11d	24 Jul 2026	$14.95	7/15	$28,541	$41,086	46%	72%	+$11,347	-$0	0.0%	$37,670 (vs do-nothing +$6,440)
$347.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$16.50	6/15	$27,000	$41,114	41%	71%	+$9,881	-$0	0.0%	$37,680 (vs do-nothing +$6,450)
$347.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$10.15	4/15	$30,450	$47,700	31%	68%	+$9,208	-$0	0.0%	$32,990 (vs do-nothing +$1,760)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 13:27