FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC300 @ $352.42

BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $332.41 | 15 contracts (1,500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC300 @ $352.42 UNDERWATER $20.58 (5.5% below BE SS)

15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $332.41 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $300 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $90.498/sh)

SP: $345 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.446/sh)

HP: $310 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $39.964/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$162,000	(ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500
Normal income ref	$56,045/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,828/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$22,605	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$28,023/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$56,045/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $109,500

ML VELOCITY
2.9 mo to earn back $162,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $332.41 (probe: $347.5C 11d) still earns $47,373/mo (85% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,779

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,598

CC-SS ratchet

$352.42 → $332.41

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $400C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$3.20	$1,598	2026-07-07

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $332.41 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 15 × $365 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $365)

69%

Touch odds

64%

Per cycle

$12,150

Income / mo

$33,136

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $14.97/sh now → $10.58 mid-life (likely $12.47–$17.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,567 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $370 (overshoots $5.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$365	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$2.16/sh	+$3,241 cycle +$15,391 [+$439…+$2,911] · 84% credit	69% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$368	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.93/sh	+$1,398 cycle +$13,548 [-$1,614…+$886] · 36% credit	71% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$368	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.93/sh	+$1,398 cycle +$13,548 [-$1,614…+$886] · 36% credit	71% surv 55%
SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$393	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$7.24/sh	-$10,862 cycle +$1,288 [-$17,224…-$12,789]	87% surv 85%
budget: banked $12,150 debit $10,862 (89% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,288 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $12,538/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 15 × $362.50 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $362.50)

83%

Touch odds

34%

Per cycle

$4,095

Income / mo

$30,713

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.63/sh now → $5.40 mid-life (likely $5.50–$9.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.73/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 701 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $366 (overshoots $3.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$362	24 Jul 2026	9d left	+$7.06/sh	+$10,590 cycle +$14,685 [+$8,336…+$10,803] · 98% credit	70% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$380	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.95/sh	+$2,930 cycle +$7,025 [-$816…+$2,862] · 65% credit	79% surv 73%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$378	24 Jul 2026	9d left	+$0.56/sh	+$837 cycle +$4,932 [-$2,977…+$649] · 33% credit	81% surv 74%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$385	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.33/sh	+$488 cycle +$4,583 [-$3,643…+$406] · 31% credit	82% surv 77%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$400	31 Jul 2026	16d left	-$2.51/sh	-$3,760 cycle +$335 [-$8,645…-$3,934]	90% surv 88%
budget: banked $4,095 debit $3,760 (92% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$335 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $8,126/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🛡 Safer · sell 15 × $387.50 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $387.50)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$3,990

Income / mo

$10,882

Buyback gross: $15.89/sh now → $11.24 mid-life (likely $9.87–$15.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 493 simulated challenges: the $388 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $393 (overshoots $5.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$388	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.44/sh	+$2,160 cycle +$6,150 [+$845…+$4,889] · 86% credit	69% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$390	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.21/sh	+$312 cycle +$4,302 [-$1,270…+$2,570] · 57% credit	71% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$390	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.21/sh	+$312 cycle +$4,302 [-$1,270…+$2,570] · 57% credit	71% surv 55%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$395	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$2.21/sh	-$3,309 cycle +$681 [-$5,600…-$1,480] · 16% credit	74% surv 62%
budget: banked $3,990 debit $3,309 (83% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$681 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $33,867/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (17 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $31,230

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$362.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.73	14/15	$28,665	$30,233	83%	89%	+$22,215	-$0	0.0%	$27,002 (vs do-nothing $-4,228)
$360	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.50	11/15	$28,875	$35,148	77%	86%	+$20,510	-$0	0.0%	$28,755 (vs do-nothing $-2,475)
$367.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.20	15/15	$29,455	$29,455	72%	80%	+$14,313	-$0	0.0%	$33,405 (vs do-nothing +$2,175)
$365	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.10	13/15	$28,718	$31,855	69%	79%	+$13,216	-$0	0.0%	$34,285 (vs do-nothing +$3,055)
$357.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.45	9/15	$30,038	$39,447	69%	82%	+$19,179	-$0	0.0%	$30,060 (vs do-nothing $-1,170)
$362.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.15	12/15	$29,945	$34,650	66%	77%	+$13,138	-$0	0.0%	$35,310 (vs do-nothing +$4,080)
$360	18d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	15/15	$29,125	$29,125	61%	74%	+$9,514	-$0	0.0%	$40,080 (vs do-nothing +$8,850)
$355	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.60	7/15	$29,400	$41,945	60%	79%	+$16,565	-$0	0.0%	$31,125 (vs do-nothing $-105)
$357.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$11.20	10/15	$30,545	$38,386	59%	74%	+$11,566	-$0	0.0%	$36,680 (vs do-nothing +$5,450)
$355	11d	24 Jul 2026	$12.50	9/15	$30,682	$40,091	55%	72%	+$10,976	-$0	0.0%	$37,305 (vs do-nothing +$6,075)
$355	18d	31 Jul 2026	$14.10	12/15	$28,200	$32,905	55%	71%	+$8,383	-$0	0.0%	$41,250 (vs do-nothing +$10,020)
$352.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$13.70	8/15	$29,891	$40,868	52%	71%	+$9,805	-$0	0.0%	$37,590 (vs do-nothing +$6,360)
$352.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$7.00	6/15	$31,500	$45,614	51%	76%	+$15,502	-$0	0.0%	$31,980 (vs do-nothing +$750)

Show 4 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$350	18d	31 Jul 2026	$16.40	11/15	$30,067	$36,339	49%	69%	+$7,472	-$0	0.0%	$42,945 (vs do-nothing +$11,715)
$350	11d	24 Jul 2026	$14.95	7/15	$28,541	$41,086	48%	69%	+$8,507	-$0	0.0%	$37,670 (vs do-nothing +$6,440)
$347.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$16.50	7/15	$31,500	$44,045	44%	68%	+$8,798	-$0	0.0%	$38,755 (vs do-nothing +$7,525)
$347.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$10.15	4/15	$30,450	$47,700	33%	70%	+$10,604	-$0	0.0%	$32,990 (vs do-nothing +$1,760)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 13:35