FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC300 @ $355.80

BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $338.22 | 15 contracts (1,500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC300 @ $355.80 UNDERWATER $17.20 (4.6% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 10 days. The recommended CC (4d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-23.

15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $338.22 (banked floor $335.94) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $300 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $90.498/sh)

SP: $345 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.446/sh)

HP: $310 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $39.964/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$162,000	(ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500
Normal income ref	$47,864/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,828/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$22,605	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$23,932/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$47,864/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.3 mo to earn back $109,500

ML VELOCITY
3.4 mo to earn back $162,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $338.22 (probe: $350C 11d) still earns $37,432/mo (78% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,779

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,598

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$338.22 → $335.94

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $400C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$3.20	$1,598	2026-07-07

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 60 (live) · RSI 56 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 45 · %B 50 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.83 (+16%) · daily UBB $373.77 · 1-wk expected move ±$21 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $338.22 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 15 × $372.50 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $372.50)

71%

Touch odds

61%

Per cycle

$10,730

Income / mo

$17,884

🎯 Recommended · sell 15 × $365 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $365)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$3,075

Income / mo

$23,062

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.52/sh now → $3.91 mid-life (likely $4.20–$7.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 793 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $368 (overshoots $3.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$365	24 Jul 2026	9d left	+$7.05/sh	+$10,571 cycle +$13,646 [+$9,280…+$10,571] · 100% credit	68% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$384	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.89/sh	+$2,840 cycle +$5,915 [-$120…+$2,592] · 73% credit	79% surv 74%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$389	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.82/sh	+$1,236 cycle +$4,311 [-$1,989…+$941] · 45% credit	82% surv 79%
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$384	24 Jul 2026	9d left	+$0.06/sh	+$97 cycle +$3,172 [-$3,064…-$350] · 18% credit	83% surv 78%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$404	31 Jul 2026	16d left	-$1.86/sh	-$2,789 cycle +$286 [-$6,809…-$3,223]	90% surv 89%
budget: banked $3,075 debit $2,789 (91% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$286 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $5,754/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 15 × $370 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $370)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$1,815

Income / mo

$13,612

Buyback gross: $5.60/sh now → $3.96 mid-life (likely $3.66–$6.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 365 simulated challenges: the $370 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $373 (overshoots $2.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$370	24 Jul 2026	9d left	+$7.00/sh	+$10,501 cycle +$12,316 [+$9,486…+$10,968] · 100% credit	68% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$389	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.83/sh	+$2,750 cycle +$4,565 [+$373…+$3,090] · 79% credit	79% surv 74%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$394	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.76/sh	+$1,145 cycle +$2,960 [-$1,491…+$1,430] · 54% credit	82% surv 79%
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$389	24 Jul 2026	9d left	+$0.01/sh	+$19 cycle +$1,834 [-$2,713…-$3] · 25% credit	83% surv 78%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$404	31 Jul 2026	16d left	-$1.02/sh	-$1,536 cycle +$279 [-$4,630…-$1,316] · 6% credit	88% surv 86%
budget: banked $1,815 debit $1,536 (85% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$279 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $8,254/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (20 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $31,230

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$362.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.73	12/15	$24,570	$29,275	74%	81%	+$13,460	-$0	0.0%	$27,606 (vs do-nothing $-3,624)
$370	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.30	14/15	$24,055	$25,623	71%	78%	+$8,786	-$0	0.0%	$32,000 (vs do-nothing +$770)
$367.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.20	13/15	$25,527	$28,664	68%	77%	+$8,855	-$0	0.0%	$33,115 (vs do-nothing +$1,885)
$360	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.50	10/15	$26,250	$34,091	66%	77%	+$11,977	-$0	0.0%	$28,980 (vs do-nothing $-2,250)
$365	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.10	11/15	$24,300	$30,573	64%	75%	+$7,802	-$0	0.0%	$33,815 (vs do-nothing +$2,585)
$365	18d	31 Jul 2026	$9.85	15/15	$24,625	$24,625	63%	73%	+$6,242	-$0	0.0%	$37,380 (vs do-nothing +$6,150)
$362.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.15	10/15	$24,955	$32,795	61%	73%	+$7,515	-$0	0.0%	$34,630 (vs do-nothing +$3,400)
$362.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.45	14/15	$24,383	$25,952	60%	72%	+$5,048	-$0	0.0%	$37,810 (vs do-nothing +$6,580)
$357.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.45	8/15	$26,700	$37,677	57%	73%	+$9,767	-$0	0.0%	$30,190 (vs do-nothing $-1,040)
$360	18d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	13/15	$25,242	$28,378	57%	70%	+$5,076	-$0	0.0%	$38,900 (vs do-nothing +$7,670)
$357.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$11.20	8/15	$24,436	$35,414	54%	70%	+$5,896	-$0	0.0%	$35,590 (vs do-nothing +$4,360)
$357.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$12.54	12/15	$25,080	$29,785	54%	69%	+$4,251	-$0	0.0%	$39,378 (vs do-nothing +$8,148)
$355	18d	31 Jul 2026	$14.10	11/15	$25,850	$32,123	51%	67%	+$4,570	-$0	0.0%	$40,415 (vs do-nothing +$9,185)

Show 7 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$355	11d	24 Jul 2026	$12.50	8/15	$27,273	$38,250	50%	68%	+$6,085	-$0	0.0%	$36,630 (vs do-nothing +$5,400)
$352.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$14.87	10/15	$24,779	$32,620	48%	66%	+$3,292	-$0	0.0%	$40,347 (vs do-nothing +$9,117)
$355	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.60	6/15	$25,200	$39,314	48%	68%	+$7,113	-$0	0.0%	$31,140 (vs do-nothing $-90)
$352.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$13.70	7/15	$26,155	$38,700	47%	66%	+$5,090	-$0	0.0%	$36,795 (vs do-nothing +$5,565)
$350	18d	31 Jul 2026	$16.40	9/15	$24,600	$34,009	45%	65%	+$3,202	-$0	0.0%	$40,815 (vs do-nothing +$9,585)
$350	11d	24 Jul 2026	$14.95	6/15	$24,464	$38,577	43%	65%	+$4,067	-$0	0.0%	$36,750 (vs do-nothing +$5,520)
$352.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$7.00	5/15	$26,250	$41,932	38%	65%	+$5,627	-$0	0.0%	$31,855 (vs do-nothing +$625)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 19:06