GOOG-LC300 @ $353.94 UNDERWATER $19.06 (5.1% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 10 days. The recommended CC (4d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-23.
15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $336.54 (banked floor $334.26) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
LC: $300 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $90.498/sh)
SP: $345 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.446/sh)
HP: $310 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $39.964/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $162,000 | (ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500 |
| Normal income ref | $45,614/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,868/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $22,388 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$22,807/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$45,614/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.4 mo to earn back $109,500
ML VELOCITY
3.6 mo to earn back $162,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $336.54 (probe: $347.5C 11d) still earns $35,243/mo (77% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-07
$2,779
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$336.54 → $334.26
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 57 (live) · RSI 55 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 46 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $414.68 (+17%) · daily UBB $373.45 · 1-wk expected move ±$22 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $336.54 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 15 × $370 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $370)
69%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $15.14/sh now → $10.71 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 15 × $365 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $365)
81%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.28/sh now → $3.73 mid-life (likely $3.94–$6.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 770 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $369 (overshoots $3.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$365 | 24 Jul 2026 | 9d left | +$6.87/sh | +$10,302 cycle +$12,387 [+$9,422…+$10,471] · 100% credit | 66% surv 52% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$386 | 31 Jul 2026 | 16d left | +$1.62/sh | +$2,425 cycle +$4,510 [-$127…+$2,317] · 74% credit | 79% surv 75% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$391 | 31 Jul 2026 | 16d left | +$0.40/sh | +$593 cycle +$2,678 [-$2,352…+$433] · 34% credit | 82% surv 79% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$384 | 24 Jul 2026 | 9d left | +$0.38/sh | +$577 cycle +$2,662 [-$2,119…+$288] · 32% credit | 80% surv 76% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$401 | 31 Jul 2026 | 16d left | -$1.12/sh | -$1,674 cycle +$411 [-$5,075…-$1,948] · 4% credit | 88% surv 86% |
| budget: banked $2,085 debit $1,674 (80% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$411 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $7,363/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 15 × $400 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $400)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $16.37/sh now → $11.57 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.82/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (21 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.857 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $29,888
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $370 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 15/15 | $22,909 | $22,909 | 71% | 77% | +$4,752 | -$0 | 0.0% | $30,788 (vs do-nothing +$900) |
| $360 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.56 | 12/15 | $23,040 | $27,131 | 69% | 76% | +$5,823 | -$0 | 0.0% | $26,960 (vs do-nothing $-2,928) |
| $367.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 13/15 | $22,868 | $25,595 | 68% | 76% | +$4,770 | -$0 | 0.0% | $31,773 (vs do-nothing +$1,885) |
| $365 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 12/15 | $23,564 | $27,655 | 66% | 74% | +$4,418 | -$0 | 0.0% | $32,528 (vs do-nothing +$2,640) |
| $362.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.20 | 11/15 | $24,600 | $30,055 | 63% | 72% | +$4,684 | -$0 | 0.0% | $33,408 (vs do-nothing +$3,520) |
| $357.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 10/15 | $25,125 | $31,943 | 62% | 72% | +$4,802 | -$0 | 0.0% | $28,238 (vs do-nothing $-1,650) |
| $362.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.55 | 15/15 | $23,875 | $23,875 | 62% | 72% | +$3,681 | -$0 | 0.0% | $36,713 (vs do-nothing +$6,825) |
| $360 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.40 | 14/15 | $24,267 | $25,630 | 59% | 70% | +$3,162 | -$0 | 0.0% | $37,448 (vs do-nothing +$7,560) |
| $357.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.10 | 9/15 | $24,791 | $32,973 | 56% | 69% | +$3,573 | -$0 | 0.0% | $34,478 (vs do-nothing +$4,590) |
| $357.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.65 | 12/15 | $23,300 | $27,391 | 56% | 69% | +$3,123 | -$0 | 0.0% | $37,868 (vs do-nothing +$7,980) |
| $355 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 7/15 | $23,100 | $34,009 | 54% | 68% | +$3,494 | -$0 | 0.0% | $29,468 (vs do-nothing $-420) |
| $355 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.95 | 11/15 | $23,742 | $29,196 | 53% | 68% | +$3,177 | -$0 | 0.0% | $38,633 (vs do-nothing +$8,745) |
| $355 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.15 | 8/15 | $24,327 | $33,873 | 53% | 68% | +$3,049 | -$0 | 0.0% | $34,808 (vs do-nothing +$4,920) |
Show 8 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $352.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.70 | 10/15 | $22,833 | $29,652 | 50% | 66% | +$2,113 | -$0 | 0.0% | $38,588 (vs do-nothing +$8,700) |
| $352.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.35 | 7/15 | $23,577 | $34,486 | 50% | 66% | +$2,684 | -$0 | 0.0% | $35,033 (vs do-nothing +$5,145) |
| $350 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $15.45 | 9/15 | $23,175 | $31,357 | 47% | 65% | +$2,574 | -$0 | 0.0% | $39,293 (vs do-nothing +$9,405) |
| $350 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.65 | 7/15 | $26,059 | $36,968 | 46% | 65% | +$2,638 | -$0 | 0.0% | $35,943 (vs do-nothing +$6,055) |
| $352.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 6/15 | $24,750 | $37,023 | 46% | 64% | +$2,243 | -$0 | 0.0% | $30,188 (vs do-nothing +$300) |
| $347.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.65 | 9/15 | $24,975 | $33,157 | 44% | 64% | +$2,289 | -$0 | 0.0% | $40,373 (vs do-nothing +$10,485) |
| $347.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $15.05 | 6/15 | $24,627 | $36,900 | 43% | 63% | +$2,125 | -$0 | 0.0% | $35,918 (vs do-nothing +$6,030) |
| $347.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.50 | 4/15 | $25,500 | $40,500 | 31% | 58% | +$767 | -$0 | 0.0% | $31,288 (vs do-nothing +$1,400) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.