GOOG-LC300 @ $318.10 UNDERWATER $54.90 (14.7% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TODAY. The recommended CC (15d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.
15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $339.30 (banked floor $318.36) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
LC: $300 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $90.498/sh)
SP: $345 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.446/sh)
HP: $310 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $39.964/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $162,000 | (ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500 |
| Normal income ref | $25,200/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $3,579/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,862 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$12,600/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$25,200/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
4.3 mo to earn back $109,500
ML VELOCITY
6.4 mo to earn back $162,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $339.30 (probe: $340C 15d) still earns $7,080/mo (28% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-07
$25,239
Hole (after banked)
$0
was $24,862 · 102% earned back
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$339.30 → $318.36
? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 30 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 31 · %B -12 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.02 (+30%) · daily UBB $376.26 · 1-wk expected move ±$15 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $339.30 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 15 × $340 7 Aug 2026 (15d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $340)
83%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.49/sh now → $7.42 mid-life (likely $6.96–$10.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 797 simulated challenges: the $340 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 15, at $344 (overshoots $3.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$340 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$1.38/sh | +$2,072 cycle +$5,612 [+$1,215…+$3,133] · 99% credit | 67% surv 51% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$342 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.41/sh | +$608 cycle +$4,148 [-$445…+$1,464] · 60% credit | 69% surv 55% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$342 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.41/sh | +$608 cycle +$4,148 [-$445…+$1,464] · 60% credit | 69% surv 55% |
| SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$347 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | -$1.72/sh | -$2,585 cycle +$955 [-$4,265…-$2,084] · 7% credit | 73% surv 64% |
| budget: banked $3,540 debit $2,585 (73% used ≈ 1.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$955 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $18,315/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 15 × $342.50 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $342.50)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.27/sh now → $5.85 mid-life (likely $4.64–$8.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 284 simulated challenges: the $342 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $346 (overshoots $3.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$342 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$2.04/sh | +$3,053 cycle +$4,523 [+$2,585…+$4,482] · 99% credit | 67% surv 51% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$344 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.07/sh | +$1,611 cycle +$3,081 [+$939…+$3,008] · 89% credit | 69% surv 55% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$349 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.78/sh | +$1,171 cycle +$2,641 [+$105…+$2,801] · 76% credit | 73% surv 63% |
| SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$354 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.94/sh | -$1,416 cycle +$54 [-$3,062…+$98] · 28% credit | 77% surv 70% |
| budget: banked $1,470 debit $1,416 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$54 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $12,265/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 15 × $410 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $410)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $9.90/sh now → $7.00 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$410 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.06/sh | -$94 cycle -$64 | 67% surv 51% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$412 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.51/sh | +$772 cycle +$802 | 68% surv 55% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (16 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.799 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$25,408 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $965
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $332.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.32 | 15/15 | $13,050 | $13,050 | 79% | 83% | +$4,593 | -$6,719 | 6.1% | $-6,174 (vs do-nothing $-7,139) |
| $330 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.86 | 12/15 | $12,870 | $13,038 | 75% | 80% | +$4,090 | -$7,727 | 7.1% | $-7,098 (vs do-nothing $-8,063) |
| $327.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 10/15 | $12,750 | $13,030 | 71% | 77% | +$3,324 | -$8,400 | 7.7% | $-7,714 (vs do-nothing $-8,680) |
| $330 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.75 | 14/15 | $13,300 | $13,356 | 71% | 77% | +$4,118 | -$6,369 | 5.8% | $-5,796 (vs do-nothing $-6,761) |
| $327.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.35 | 12/15 | $12,840 | $13,008 | 67% | 75% | +$3,317 | -$7,739 | 7.1% | $-7,110 (vs do-nothing $-8,075) |
| $325 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 8/15 | $12,600 | $12,992 | 66% | 74% | +$2,971 | -$8,080 | 7.4% | $-7,338 (vs do-nothing $-8,304) |
| $325 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.30 | 10/15 | $12,600 | $12,880 | 63% | 73% | +$3,057 | -$8,000 | 7.3% | $-7,314 (vs do-nothing $-8,280) |
| $325 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.85 | 12/15 | $12,845 | $13,013 | 62% | 72% | +$2,930 | -$7,739 | 7.1% | $-7,110 (vs do-nothing $-8,075) |
| $322.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 7/15 | $13,388 | $13,836 | 61% | 72% | +$2,739 | -$8,190 | 7.5% | $-7,421 (vs do-nothing $-8,386) |
| $322.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.25 | 9/15 | $13,050 | $13,386 | 59% | 71% | +$2,793 | -$8,595 | 7.8% | $-7,881 (vs do-nothing $-8,847) |
| $320 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 6/15 | $14,175 | $14,679 | 56% | 70% | +$3,541 | -$7,800 | 7.1% | $-7,003 (vs do-nothing $-7,968) |
| $320 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $8.40 | 8/15 | $13,440 | $13,832 | 55% | 69% | +$2,577 | -$8,720 | 8.0% | $-7,978 (vs do-nothing $-8,944) |
| $320 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $10.05 | 10/15 | $13,705 | $13,985 | 55% | 69% | +$2,648 | -$9,250 | 8.4% | $-8,564 (vs do-nothing $-9,530) |
Show 3 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $315 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $12.65 | 8/15 | $13,800 | $14,192 | 47% | 66% | +$2,195 | -$9,320 | 8.5% | $-8,578 (vs do-nothing $-9,544) |
| $315 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $10.95 | 6/15 | $13,140 | $13,644 | 46% | 65% | +$1,990 | -$8,010 | 7.3% | $-7,213 (vs do-nothing $-8,178) |
| $315 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 4/15 | $13,425 | $14,041 | 44% | 65% | +$2,523 | -$6,140 | 5.6% | $-5,287 (vs do-nothing $-6,252) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.