GOOG-LC300 @ $319.89 UNDERWATER $53.11 (14.2% below BE SS)
15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $340.35 (banked floor $319.48) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
LC: $300 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $90.498/sh)
SP: $345 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.446/sh)
HP: $310 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $39.964/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $162,000 | (ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500 |
| Normal income ref | $27,161/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $3,626/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,075 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$13,580/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$27,161/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
4.0 mo to earn back $109,500
ML VELOCITY
6.0 mo to earn back $162,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $340.35 (probe: $340C 14d) still earns $6,911/mo (25% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-07
$25,239
Hole (after banked)
$0
was $24,075 · 105% earned back
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$340.35 → $319.48
? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 32 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 32 · %B -2 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.04 (+29%) · daily UBB $378.07 · 1-wk expected move ±$14 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $340.35 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 15 × $342.50 7 Aug 2026 (14d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $342.50)
86%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $9.92/sh now → $7.01 mid-life (likely $6.12–$9.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 648 simulated challenges: the $342 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 14, at $346 (overshoots $3.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$342 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$1.21/sh | +$1,814 cycle +$4,469 [+$1,007…+$3,178] · 96% credit | 67% surv 51% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$345 | 21 Aug 2026 | 21d left | +$1.63/sh | +$2,451 cycle +$5,106 [+$1,324…+$3,997] · 95% credit | 70% surv 56% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$343 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$1.15/sh | +$1,726 cycle +$4,381 [+$901…+$3,080] · 95% credit | 67% surv 51% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$348 | 21 Aug 2026 | 21d left | +$0.50/sh | +$751 cycle +$3,406 [-$657…+$2,121] · 59% credit | 72% surv 60% |
| SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$353 | 21 Aug 2026 | 21d left | -$1.38/sh | -$2,073 cycle +$582 [-$3,961…-$968] · 15% credit | 76% surv 68% |
| budget: banked $2,655 debit $2,073 (78% used ≈ 1.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$582 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $12,064/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 15 × $357.50 21 Aug 2026 (28d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $357.50)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $14.04/sh now → $9.93 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 15 × $405 14 Aug 2026 (21d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $405)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $14.32/sh now → $10.13 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$10.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$405 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.31/sh | -$3,470 cycle -$3,455 | 67% surv 51% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$400 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.51/sh | +$760 cycle +$775 | 63% surv 40% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (18 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.803 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,647 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $722
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $330 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.71 | 12/15 | $13,937 | $14,001 | 75% | 81% | +$5,644 | -$9,171 | 8.4% | $-8,569 (vs do-nothing $-9,291) |
| $327.50 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 10/15 | $14,143 | $14,250 | 70% | 77% | +$4,804 | -$9,553 | 8.7% | $-8,930 (vs do-nothing $-9,653) |
| $327.50 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.15 | 13/15 | $14,346 | $14,389 | 66% | 75% | +$3,711 | -$10,013 | 9.1% | $-9,421 (vs do-nothing $-10,143) |
| $325 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 8/15 | $13,886 | $14,036 | 64% | 74% | +$3,907 | -$9,042 | 8.3% | $-8,400 (vs do-nothing $-9,122) |
| $325 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.10 | 11/15 | $14,379 | $14,464 | 61% | 72% | +$3,358 | -$10,178 | 9.3% | $-9,566 (vs do-nothing $-10,288) |
| $325 | 21d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.65 | 13/15 | $14,207 | $14,250 | 60% | 71% | +$2,884 | -$10,013 | 9.1% | $-9,421 (vs do-nothing $-10,143) |
| $325 | 28d | 21 Aug 2026 | $9.35 | 14/15 | $14,025 | $14,046 | 59% | 72% | +$3,430 | -$8,404 | 7.7% | $-7,821 (vs do-nothing $-8,544) |
| $322.50 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 7/15 | $15,300 | $15,471 | 58% | 71% | +$3,810 | -$8,927 | 8.2% | $-8,275 (vs do-nothing $-8,997) |
| $322.50 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.30 | 9/15 | $14,079 | $14,207 | 56% | 70% | +$3,134 | -$9,497 | 8.7% | $-8,865 (vs do-nothing $-9,587) |
| $322.50 | 28d | 21 Aug 2026 | $10.50 | 13/15 | $14,625 | $14,668 | 55% | 70% | +$3,309 | -$9,558 | 8.7% | $-8,966 (vs do-nothing $-9,688) |
| $320 | 28d | 21 Aug 2026 | $11.80 | 11/15 | $13,907 | $13,993 | 52% | 68% | +$2,950 | -$9,408 | 8.6% | $-8,796 (vs do-nothing $-9,518) |
| $320 | 21d | 14 Aug 2026 | $10.25 | 10/15 | $14,643 | $14,750 | 52% | 68% | +$2,753 | -$10,103 | 9.2% | $-9,480 (vs do-nothing $-10,203) |
| $320 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $8.45 | 8/15 | $14,486 | $14,636 | 51% | 68% | +$2,790 | -$9,522 | 8.7% | $-8,880 (vs do-nothing $-9,602) |
Show 5 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $320 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 6/15 | $16,200 | $16,393 | 51% | 68% | +$3,460 | -$8,432 | 7.7% | $-7,769 (vs do-nothing $-8,492) |
| $315 | 28d | 21 Aug 2026 | $14.50 | 9/15 | $13,982 | $14,111 | 45% | 65% | +$2,431 | -$9,767 | 8.9% | $-9,135 (vs do-nothing $-9,857) |
| $315 | 21d | 14 Aug 2026 | $12.90 | 8/15 | $14,743 | $14,893 | 44% | 65% | +$2,119 | -$9,962 | 9.1% | $-9,320 (vs do-nothing $-10,042) |
| $315 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $11.25 | 6/15 | $14,464 | $14,657 | 42% | 64% | +$2,157 | -$8,462 | 7.7% | $-7,799 (vs do-nothing $-8,522) |
| $315 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.20 | 4/15 | $15,771 | $16,007 | 38% | 63% | +$2,344 | -$6,461 | 5.9% | $-5,779 (vs do-nothing $-6,501) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.